Victoria: Heatwave November 13th-20th 2009

SC wrote:Very interesting sunset tonight. Lots of different cloud types in the sky, I only wish I knew all there names.

Yep Andrew 11th/12th November how do I remember? Cos mother nature delivered me one of the best birthday presents & coincedently it was my 21st Birthday

Also 22nd November 2003 when the Rugby World cup final was on (not that I'm interested in rugby but I was watching it for some reason), it absolutely belted down that night here. I remember vividly it was a SE flow around a low with an upper cold pool and a stack of moisture. The official BOM forecast for the day was 'isolated showers in far East Gippsland clearing' and we ended up with over 50mm here and 80mm+ around Toolern Vale and Bullengarook. (BOM used to stuff up big time back then too) Nowhere else in the state got anything, it was a localised event.

Just saying these type of events, the really big events, tend to happen in November and they can sometimes be unpredicted or unexpected.

Johnno wrote:

SC wrote:Very interesting sunset tonight. Lots of different cloud types in the sky, I only wish I knew all there names.

Yep Andrew 11th/12th November how do I remember? Cos mother nature delivered me one of the best birthday presents & coincedently it was my 21st Birthday

Maribyrnong river may have flooded too with that event, I've got vague memories of that. I have the most vivid memories of that it was one of the best systems we've had in all my years. It was your classic easterly dip with rain coming down from the north under a tropical airmass with convergence into a slow moving low. It belted down for hours. The other event I mentioned came in very slowly from the east during the day and exploded here once the winds went SE, must have been a solid bay effect involved.

Just GFS Johnno, it could happen but gee it looks hilarious when you run the precip loop and it shows purple blobs jumping all over the screen..

And for once it would be great for GASP to come off...progging some extremely cold air with 850s in the minuses being dragged up, which would deliver an insanely cold and violent set up.

Anthony Violi wrote:Just GFS Johnno, it could happen but gee it looks hilarious when you run the precip loop and it shows purple blobs jumping all over the screen..

And for once it would be great for GASP to come off...progging some extremely cold air with 850s in the minuses being dragged up, which would deliver an insanely cold and violent set up.

Thanks mate, anything is possible. Actually EC does pull the cold air up In the uppers) but it gets very strange and pulls the Upper cold air through Western Qld and NT border as an upper low so it hasn't eliminated it, so still some sort of chance.

24.8C up here today - very lucky to have escaped the stinker which got the northwest.

Hoping for a shower to two tomorrow, and not looking forward to Wed/Thur

We didn't escape the heat here. Got to 30C before the sun came over and hit the sensor at around 5pm (south facing sensor in full shade for most of the time but not in a screen so sun gets it in the summer months). I'd say that was the max, normally get a max around 5pm this time of year. A bit frustrating because it was only 19C at 11am and 25C for most of the afternoon but then the temp spiked after around about 2pm.

This morning's minimum here was only 8C.

There is a bit of lightning showing now on the radar near Wonthaggi.

What is going on with the radar on there by the way? Shows up yellow, red spots etc everywhere and now it is extending up to Marysville area? Surely has to be an error?

GFS has brought back the low and cold pool for the Monday after next and is now showing up some convective rainfall for Thursday night right through to Monday with fronts on Saturday and late Sunday/Monday (where the large surface low is progged to develop from the upper cold pool). Rainfall will increase along the fronts and storms may become organised. The origin of the moisture is from the tropical NW and traveling right over the centre of the continent before the fronts and cooler air through the atmosphere interact with it.

Usually with this setup it means very heavy rain likely and widespread also. Hopefully it can hold in the progs and we can see this eventuate.

Keep your eye on the national satellite image from Thursday on, it should get rather spectacular.

It's this graph that's got me interested (Antarctic Annular Oscillation):
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/aao_index.html

It's virtually off the scale!!! Some notable departures into negative territory in November (although nothing compared to current setup) occurred in 1980 (heatwave), 1996, 1997, & 2000.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/aao/monthly.aao.index.b79.current.ascii.table

Other months with big -ve values also had extreme weather, ie. July 1995 (cold), May 2002 (hot), July 2007 (monster ECLs). I suppose the location of the LWT when it happens determines what we are going to get. And this month we cop endless heat.

wow did it just get humid out there - went out to let the dog out and couldn't beleive how "sticky" it is out there for 2am!!!!

Woke to 22 today our top being 24, 18.8 now and getting a drop of rain, although it is only a drop.

Models have gone completely nuts for the weekend. EC has 48mm for my place on Saturday and then another 24mm next Monday. GFS has 50mm+ for west central on Saturday also with widespread 25mm-50mm. Looks like things just keep getting more interesting.

24C at ~4am this morning then the front came through and down to 17C when I left home. Even had 5 maybe 6 spots of rain and a tiny little rainbow

Much cooler in the south today, though the hot air is not far to our north - mid to high 30s near the river and 40C across southern NSW.

Is going to be a hell of a lot of weather if the models are right (anyone want to start the rain/thunder thread?). First a savage (possibly record breaking) burst of heat Wednesday into Thursday. OCF (which tends to be pretty good) has 43C at Mildura Wed/Thur and 44C at Walpeup and Swan Hill on Thur. A tad cooler in the south (850Ts nearer 20C rather than the mid/high 20s that pass across NSW and southern Vic), and enough easterly and cloud to (probably) keep things below 40C.

A few records to watch. Vic record of 44.5C at Mildura (from 1980), SA record of 47.9C at Tarcoola, and NSW record of 46.1C at Coonamble. Plenty of site records (to numerous to mention) are at risk.

The rain progs look fantastics - just what we need if it were to come off.

EC has around 45mm for the region Friday into Saturday and another 25-30mm following up. Tasty!!

Nice breeze now... Could of come 12hrs ago.

Drove home from Burnley this morning around 12.30am and there was a few showers. They didn't really show up much on the radar. Enough to put the wipers on though.

The city lights were enough to show a fair bit of low cloud aswell.

Got close to drizzle last night in the Dandenongs but the low levels were just a tad too dry. Cloud based refused to drop below (about) 600m.

Looks like a nice day then warming up with quickly tomorrow. Low 40s across the north of the state, and cooler in the south.

The heatwave is about to crank up with some extraordinarily hot air moving south. There is a bit of a difference between the models, but this event has the potential to break a huge number of records.
The current forecasts suggest Vic will see (about) 20% of the state have the hottest day on record on Thursday, while Thursday night will be the hottest November night on record over a similar area. A degree or two above the forecast and the area of records expands rapidly.

Latest LAPS is pretty typical of the models. It has 850 temperatures touching 25C by tomorrow evening about the Murray and this tending to edge south on Thursday. In the absence of cloud and rain, those numbers will translate into widespread low 40s. Despite the heat there is actually some pretty good mid level moisture - hence the shower/storm on the forecast.

Certainly wouldn't rule out a 45C somewhere in Victoria the next two days which would be a new state record

Frightening!! I would think the earliest 40C in Melbourne will drop on Thursday after clearing thunderstorms. I would suspect that night will be the warmest night on record at about 28-29C if there is no thunderstorms around.

I am thinking I need air con here!!!

Temps are starting to spike now as the northerly mixes down. 38-40C over the north and now 33 in Melbourne. Seabreeze just down the road and a 6-8C temp differnce.

Some horribly hot numbers showing up in SA where many site and even the SA November record is under some threat (47.9C). Plenty of sites now above 45C and 46.4C at Maree Airport (the Maree site tends to be a little warmer but only reports at 3pm/9am so we probably have around 47C locally in that region).

However, the real place to watch is NSW where the state record is "just" 46.1C.

I think I saw over the border in SW Queensland that Birdsville is sitting on 46C!! So there is some very foul air up around there!! What is the Nov record for QLD??

BoM are now forecasting 43 degrees tomorrow for Adelaide, which would be a record for November if it occurs. With 850 temps of ~26 or 27 this looks a reasonable bet!!

Also, a number of November temperature records for daily maximum temperatures have been broken today, by really substantial margins of ~0.6 degrees or more, at Leigh Creek, Marree, Port Augusta, Yunta, Broken Hill and Noarlunga, but are likely to be exceeded again tomorrow.

Also a number of 47C rounded in the north - will be interesting to see the 9am temperatures.

surely with all that heat, a 40c down here isnt out of the question!

We are meant to have cloudy conditions and a SW change early arvo (or there-abouts). If it gets delayed then 42C is not out of the question. The air mass is super hot. Watch for some runs into the mid 40s in southern NSW/northern Vic.