Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Ok biggest disappointment. Radar is lying

OK well to me with Charlton getting 20mm in the last hour, Melbourne will not be in for a trickle at this time. If we get 5-10mm that is not a trickle. But I am anticipating some higher falls.

Tomorrow is now shaping up to be quite a good producer!!

Karl Lijnders wrote:OK well to me with Charlton getting 20mm in the last hour, Melbourne will not be in for a trickle at this time. If we get 5-10mm that is not a trickle. But I am anticipating some higher falls.

Tomorrow is now shaping up to be quite a good producer!!

I agree Karl, the stuff up north is the most intense. Eastern subs should get some decent stuff I think as well of course you will pick up another 20-30 haha

Karl Lijnders wrote:OK well to me with Charlton getting 20mm in the last hour, Melbourne will not be in for a trickle at this time. If we get 5-10mm that is not a trickle. But I am anticipating some higher falls.

Tomorrow is now shaping up to be quite a good producer!!

Yeah but Karl, I just think Geelong will get the most of it, it will just miss most of melbourne, well this line anyway, well thats what I think!

heading down to south road beach to watch it come in across the bay - better vantage point than north road - full 180 from the heads to the city and a little higher elevation than north road rob.

This thing is turning into a monster from top to bottom now, a lot of us can expect to be smashed I think.

Lets not be greedy. I did have 151.2mm this week with some water sitting out in the front yard. I think if I got another 30mm in less than minutes, I will be moving into a house boat.

Tony wait until she rolls of the hills, some echoes may regenerate as it goes over the topography. There is still time.

Watch the back edge and behind, I suspect maybe another band.

Right, the band is reforming again. This is what drives me nuts about convective rainfall, how unpredictable it is. Seriously can't predict what will happen here in the next hour, we will either be smashed or get next to nothing. It's crunch time right now.

should be interesting to see what Aireys Inlet gets, as it seems to be raining there now

oh and yeah the radar is looking better now! Disregard any doubt I had! lol

This is a beauty of a storm band for those that get the best of it. Expect some big downpours in places and others to get just light to moderate rain. Hopefully a bit of lightning action for most.

the 1st line is here! Huge Cg (my eyes are still burning) and the instant shotgun thunder has my fillings still spinning. Although the rain isn't as intense as expected.

it definatley looks to be splitting in two with a cell forming over ballarat and another a little south of bendigo. Would suck to be in the middle of two!!!!

I think I spoke too soon. The band back-built on itself and we did end up getting some fairly close lightning and thunder and rain. Its all stopped now apart from distant lightning but I have my eyes set on another band to my west - the stuff NW of Warrnambool. That should hopefully hold and then we should get a direct hit this time!

There is no middle anyone. It is going to fill in.

Watch behind from Charlton, another line is set to form. I suspect an 'aftershock' sort of effect with another wave, possibly severe but likely to be modest.

This is looking very nasty.

Dark red behind all the rain near Bendigo is huge!!!

Yes I am getting very excited now, there is no stopping this thing, it is sticky and warm here still, as I am guessing it is everywhere around Central Vic.

look at the back build on the line approaching bendigo, nasty, it is going to be very unpredictable. Metro warning up now.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - MELBOURNE AREA
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the
Western,
Geelong and Bellarine Peninsula and parts of the
Northern and
Port Phillip Local Warning Areas.

Issued at 10:29 pm Friday, 27 November 2009.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 10:25 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Ballarat, Rokewood and Forrest. These thunderstorms are moving towards the south to southeast. They are forecast to affect Geelong City, Melton and Sunbury by 11:25 pm.

Damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones are possible.
.

Wind gusts of 102km/h were recorded at Mildura Airport at 7.48pm, Charlton 98km/h at 9.33pm.
Charlton recorded 14.4mm in 10 minutes at 9.33pm. Nhill recorded 12mm in 10 minutes at 7.20pm.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* keep away from creeks and drains.
* do not drive vehicles through flooded areas.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 11:30 pm.

A more general severe thunderstorm warning is also current for the Northern Country, North Central, Western and parts of the Mallee, Wimmera and Central districts.

Watching the NW, that's where all the action is. Flashing away and just enough moonlight to make out some impressive development, very dark cloud and much lighter and less threatening to the SW. Movement of the band has much less easterly component than north so the activity to the NW is likely to come down.

Just looking at the way these two cells are tracking I would put money on the one over ballarat hitting geelong and the one over castlemaine going north of melbourne clipping hurtsbridge, ringwood and belgrave.

Looking at the two I would suggest that the northen one of the two is the more intense the geelong one is a bit of a fizzer

Oh and I expect the storm to move rapidly more SSE towards S as the band tilts. This is common with low pressure to the SW of the state.

Storms developing well behind the band so we could be seeing cold air develop these cells further.

Regarding chances for Melbourne. Latest radar confirms for me that you guys should be hit with the band. Lightning and strong winds as well. Rainfall amounts should vary, but some totals up to 10mm from this band.

Few flashes to the NW or us here, wind coming from the NW too, this will will be interesting to see where that cell near Castlemaine ends up.

BOM has the storms tracking SE right over the Macedon ranges which is very promising to see.

righto enough talk - going down to watch it live, let's hope I don't drown

Still expecting that band up north to effect the eastern suburbs, from Glen Waverly to Cranbourne east. I think the rainfall gradients again will be quite large. If I cop it literally again, I think there will be some large amounts of flash flooding with standing water in paddocks here.

BTW the storm near Stawell is particulalry nasty and rather severe. Winds over 100kmh very likely.

Fingers crossed LOL!