Looking towards the next major rain event for SE Australia.

Have noticed a few places in the NW are starting to get a few weeks past the last decent rain event. A couple more "dry" weeks is not what that region needs.

Only my opinion but I see very very little for the NW for the next fortnight its just not set up for a decent rain in the near future up there. Hopefully I am off the mark.

Not panick stations here for moisture as it is only just getting solid enough not to get bogged in some of the paddocks. We don't want too many more of these frosts. Was amazing last night here. Right up until about midnight, we had too much breeze for a frost and within 15-20mins of the wind dropping, there was ice on cars. Tonight is just as cold and maybe colder out there.

Thought our run of changes and showery weather would have to come to an end eventually. Hope we are getting it out of the way now so we don't get it in spring. We have got a fair reserve of moisture now so this fine spell will not do any real harm but hope it's not too long. Mantis heard the river ran over there. would have been good to see! I suppose a flow is better than nothing even if it's short lived. At least the river got a bit of a drink and hopefully next wet spell it will get all the way through.

Let's just hope that next Summer is not as hellish as the last one and that August gives us some good rainfall to fill the dams.

I still think despite this high pressure system moving in, which we are due for anyway, we will continue to see some good falls across the state, particularly after this high IMO. Also, not sure if it is relevant, but Elders 28-day continues to suggest a 'high' chance of rainfall for the coming month, and has been fairly accurate IMO lately, but not the 12-month outlook.

So Power Storm are you saying that the Elders 12 month outlook is not accurate in your opinion as it looks rather dire for the Spring months?

Yeah Jake agree that we are due for a fine spell and the talk of dire condition is jumping the gun IMO. We have had a faily long run of changy weather and we were really overdue for a fine spell(As I type we are getting a pretty solid shower!). I think tha this is typical old style winter with a week of westerly winds and showers about and (hopefully) a decent rain event after the high moves on.

As for the 28 day forecasts and the 12 month variety... well NEVER look at them and would never plan by either of them.

Yeah thanks mate.

I too never take the 12-month outlook into consideration, but for here at least, the 28-day has been really good.

Well EC is throwing up a beefy change with(hopefully) some rain again on Tuesday. By the look of the winds progged it will get pretty warm too so we will need the rain if we can get it. Hopefully this one will deliver and we will not have the complication of a low with this one. I'm buggered if I know but at least it's not this flop atm

Hasn't the past few months weather patterns been absolutley wonderful ,particularly the last month. Thought I would bring this up because I am not sure where to put it, but looking towards the end of the EC 00z run, it seems to be inventing a high pressure belt for southern Australia. Thats not good news, I know its a way off, but have not seen EC put that on for a long while and EC is pretty good at picking the highs up.

And its gone on this mornings run... phewwww! didnt want them coming back!

Thought I would throw this thread a life line again since its been dead for 2 months.

keep an eye out guys in 8 to 10 days time (around the 7th to 10th December) for a major change or even cold outbreak to come through SE Australia/Victoria.. EC been hinting at it for a few runs now of a decent change getting ready to come through with a fairly major LWT.

In the meantime next Thursday change may have abit in it few showers and possible storm.

Thursday looks interesting. If we can get a little more cold air travelling in through the atmosphere later Thursday with the change then it could be a sizeable storm event.

I think models are not factoring in moisture coming in on the Ely stream as well. So could be a little more precipitation than indicated.

Moisture levels look good to me on Thursday with the change. GFS shows a plume of decent precip water with the change. Temperatures should be around 30C at sea level. It looks like a standard sort of front that we get in December and in the past these sort of systems have brought in thundery changes and this time looks no different. Anything convective models struggle with a few days out and even one day out at times. I'd expect models to come on board as we get closer. EC has around 1-2mm here for Thursday so it is ahead of GFS atm.

EC has the patterns shifting to a more zonal pattern again after the weekend with westerlies becoming firmly established and very significant for this time of year. We are due for this IMO, it's been fairly meridional for a while now with weather initially coming from the north and NW. I can definitely see a significant cold outbreak ahead later next week and EC is right on to it at this stage with a very cool week progged. Rainfall will be significant yet again if EC scenario comes off (talking the potential to get December averages in a day) but a long way out to make those sort of wild speculations yet.