Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Still a few days out but looks like a decent upper trough will affect the southeast of OZ next week. The upper trough sits very close to the surface high which is a rather unusual set up - have seen it happen a couple of times in the past (and been very productive rain-wise) but it is rare outcome. Looks like some rain will develop across SA during the weekend and spread into the eastern states early next week. Progs are suggesting some quite heavy falls - locally in the range of 25-50mm but disagree on the location of the falls.

(Just adjusted the title for archiving later down the track )

Looks likely to shift through NSW mostly but with the NE flow it will be unstable here. Just have to hope the system grows in size and moves SE rather than east.

Progs continue to wiggle with this system. Looks like the early focus will be NSW but the action is likely to drift into Vic by Tues/Wed (the EC/NOGAPS scenario). Will be a few days before the details become clear. Certainly looks very unsettled across the whole of the east.

On a positive it looks like the event will leave considerable moisture over inland OZ which could come into play when the next decent front moves up from the south - perhaps 10 days away

EC does seem to have areas of rain by tues/wed. We really need that long wave trough to act as a lifting mechanism for all this lingering moisture DJ is talking about to produce a large event.

Could be thundery late next week in a NE flow.

Hi DJ, Karl & others will I be right in saying tonights run of the ECWMF model has 2 middle/upper troughs next week for us? 1 earlier in the week and later in the week? Looks like to me ECMWF also has a surface trough with the 1st upper trough too now and weak surface low in NW Victoria Tuesday would that help the system to develop even better aid more rainfall?

Pretty good summary. Good to see - also - that EC, JMA and NOGAPS are bringing considerable rain into Vic and have a prolonged period of unstable weather. This has the potential to be big.

Main concern is that the focus could stay in NSW. Certainly recent history has shown a strong preference for the easterly dip to situations to miss Victoria, you could also say we are due.

Perhaps the only people who won't be cheering are skiers who would face a warm soggey opening to the ski season - though these do deserve it after the spin pulled in April

Just goes to prove sort of that when the Indian Ocean is active, systems tend to develop better as the meander across the continent. Had absolutely donuts till the last 4 weeks, now its becoming active and i hope we can cash in on all the residual moisture with some strong cold air as it wont last too long you wouldnt think.

Agree models look good, starting to see some consensus so the potential is there, just need the planets to align for us and get something half decent.

Definitely looking decent with plenty of rain days ahead after weeks of nothing. Looks like a predominance of easterly flow which usually delivers big for most of central and eastern VIC. Looks borderline for the odd thunderstorm on the ranges in amongst it.

What I am watching is for signs of a potential easterly dip and then ECL. EC continues down this path mainly later next week although actually brings down a system from central AUS and then develops an ECL on the Gippsland coast. If we do get an ECL forming in that region most of the eastern two thirds of the state would see a major event and particularly areas favoured in SE flow in terms of orographic uplift (my place is one, Otways more so) so that scenario excites me a bit.

Still, I shouldn't get too excited because it is just one of many possible scenarios and we will probably end up with something completely different.

Still showing considerable signs of being a NSW event. I think this one will miss us.

Gday DJ, any news? Models falling apart on us? Or is EC and co holding on to these 2 events? Will I be right in saying Central Vic/Melbourne has a reasonable chance of picking up 5-15mm Tuesday? Or is that aiming to high in the sky? Pardon the pun mate

EC and NOGAPS still firmly behind this as is JMA. GFS is all over the place - on again/off again.

I anticipate it will initially start mainly in NSW but spread south so Vic will be in line by Tuesday. Very hard to make out totals, but is likely to be unsettled right through with the possibility of a low for next weekend (the EC/NOGAPS/JMA scenario).

BTW also the potential for reasonable falls over this weekend in coastal parts - particularly Gippsland and the Otways. Doubt this will get as far north as Melbourne.

Definitely a bit of a wait and see situation...

I will talk more about this event tomorrow. I'm too tired at the moment, been in Melbourne the past few days and had a blast, late nights though!

Well this system is starting to look very promising. All the models have light rain moving into Vic on Monday now (mostly light though perhaps up to 5mm near the river) and then a protracted period of upsliding (unstable) NE flow into the upper trough. This sees showers and rain across the state, and probably plenty of mist, low cloud, fog etc as its likely to be very moist airmass. Eventually a low develops in the southeast on Thursday/Friday which is well cut off. Very messy situations like this are always unpredictable, so still has the potential to surprise.

As an example of rainfall, both EC and GFS have widespread 25mm+ across the state, and certainly most areas getting at least 10mm. After such a dry May we need this one to deliver.

Your not wrong DJ, looks like my concerns may be unfounded. I am glad to see the upsliding NE scenerio come off as it means just as you say, rain for most areas.

Central Victoria tends to do OK out of these situations and we need to make up the defecit from the last system

Heading to Taralgon and the cloud and showers are not too far away.

Thick low cloud today, not sure if there was any drizzle overnight but it certainly looks as though there may have been. Also a bit misty earlier so very moist and cold air over us at least until the cloud clears (if it clears).

Looks like a lot of rain days strung together for the week from Monday. Some of those days certainly could see good falls depending on the details of how it pans out, particularly if we get this cut off for the long weekend.

As I posted in the looking towards thread...

Well it is becoming a lot more clearer in general that we are seeing a big shift in weather patterns for SE Australia, including South Australia, Victoria and parts of Tasmania and New South Wales, with the latest model guidence still tricky to stay with. Its clear that by Monday some patchy rain will be in the west and north of Victoria, heaviest falls in the northwest, but by Tuesday we should see it spread to much of the state, and depending on conditions, it may stay that way until Friday. The northeasterly winds that are expected over Victoria from Tuesday are going to be very moist and unstable, so that will help the trough along and enhance conditions even more. Totals are very difficult to suggest at this stage, but for my conservative approach, I would say 10mm. Hopefully my thought on that changes. Even after this week, more rain bands look like they might develop across Victoria on Friday night and Saturday, followed by a low, so its getting interesting.

Good to see the progs are holding this system - even perhaps ramping it up a bit. EC has 25-50mm across a fair bit of Vic the next week which would be welcome.

First dribbles falling in the NW this arvo, and rain should make it as far south as Melbourne bylater tomorrow.

BOM also ramping up their forecast a bit too which is a good sign...scattered showers now for the whole week virtually.

Also good to see some consensus in the models too, looks like a prolonged unsettled period, and a decent system at the weekend..

Here is what I think will happen across the state for the next two-days at least... Good to see models still holding up with this rain. Next 24 hours will be crucial in the model runs.

Victoria State Forecast

Sunday
Fine apart from isolated clearing showers from the Gippsland coast, and patchy light rain developing in the northwest later today. Morning fog and frost, particularly the south, then a mostly sunny day apart from high cloud increasing from the north. A mild day with light to moderate northeasterly winds.

Monday
Cloud increasing from the north and west. Morning fog and possibly light frost in the south. Patchy rain extending to remaining western and northern areas of the state from the northwest. Remaining fine elsewhere. Generally mild with light to moderate east to northeasterly winds.

Well we have quite a lot of high cloud moving in now and some mid level stuff to our N. Looking good and looks like Mildura is just about to get some shower activity so looking good. Will be keeping a conservative eye on this one however as these event are rare to deliver as much as they can promise. If however it does deliver, we might finally see a longer term shift in weather patterns to a wetter phase and therefor an end to the drought. Though you would not call it droughty up here atm as there is plenty of feed, moisture in the ground and crops are growing.

Good to see the models continue to seep moisture into Victoria. The northwest and west of the state will do the best overnight and tomorrow according to GFS, with other models following close by.

Victoria State Forecast

Sunday Night
Patchy light rain developing in the northwest. Fog and frost developing overnight, particularly southern areas, and high cloud continuing to increase from the north.

Monday
Cloud increasing from the north and west. Morning fog and light frost, particularly in the south. Patchy rain extending to remaining western and northern areas of the state from the northwest. Remaining fine elsewhere. Generally mild with light to moderate east to northeasterly winds.

Tuesday
Cloud throughout. Patchy rain extending to most areas, but mainly affecting the western and northern parts. Light to moderate northeasterly winds.

Fairly useful rainfall in the NW. Up to 13mm at Walpeup and 9mm at Mildura. Some of that rain is extending southwards into the SW and should get to Melbourne by this afternoon.

Bit of fog about too.

Still looks very good for Vic models wiggling but not really changing. Looks like the focus today will be in western Vic and the NW though subtle changes in wind direct could see this change. With the very broad upper trough to our west almost the whole of eastern Australia has upslide ATM which will trigger very widespread showers and rain. At the same time, the upslide is not very strong so these will be patchy and often quite light.

In the nest 24 hours a small low should develop in the easterly dip, but overall not really a lot of change for the whole week - just mild humid NE flow and rain/showers.

A low for the weekend still looks likely, though not particularly strong.

I Can't see more than a few mm's here in Melbourne over the coming few days, it looked better to me 24-48 hours ago the models, I think we may largely miss out once again but things can change. It looks to be very little or almost nothing South of the ranges.

Widespread light rain now falling across the state. Best falls are on the western ranges of Vic - with Stawell and Mt William on 6mm and 8mm respectively since 9am and still falling at 1-2mm/hour.

Rainband seems to be moving a little more north-south and as a result is edging into southcentral areas - just light so far - but looks to be thickening.