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Victoria: Low pressure system. June 12th-16th 2009.

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Post  typhoon29 Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:12 pm

Thanks for the invite

Ballarat is sunny but windy, think i saw a drop of moisture?? Damn cold! brrr
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Post  Johnno Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:16 pm

No probs Typhoon & welcome Smile keep the reports coming

Tad warmer than yesterday bit of a heatwave happening here actually today managed to get to 13c jocolor

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Post  Karl Lijnders Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:33 pm

Amazing how cold it has been. A little warmer today with a bit of sun but not expecting much above 12C. A few showers possible this afternoon and a possible thunderstorm tomorrow afternoon. Winds will gradually ease.

Welcome to our new forumites!!!!
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Post  Pengaz Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:35 pm

Cloud trying to increase to the north of me but no rain to speak of today here. Wind has eased back to a slight breeze, pretty cold out there without the sun out.

Wonder whats up with the Melbourne Doppler?

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Post  SC Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:40 pm

Max of 12.4ºC here which seems to the ave temp for the last week with 5-6ºC being the ave min.

I love rugging up in Winter.
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Post  Johnno Sat Jun 13, 2009 12:49 pm

Yeah Pengaz it seems to be out of action since this morning since I got up anyhow not sure whats going on with it

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Post  Malleefarmer Sat Jun 13, 2009 1:34 pm

Well completly fine up here and hardly a cloud in the sky. Thankfully it has warmed up too so not too bad out there. Had 1.5mm this morning and once it decided to clear it was fine very quickly. Looking OK for thunderstorms with the clear air as long as it doesn't get too cold.

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Post  Mantis Sat Jun 13, 2009 3:19 pm

Thanks for the invite guys.

4.5mm here this morning but fine now

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Post  typhoon29 Sat Jun 13, 2009 5:20 pm

how accurate is that lightning tracker on weatherzone's radar?
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Post  Power Storm Sat Jun 13, 2009 7:10 pm

Typhoon, the WZ lightning tracker is fairly spot on mate. It mostly records CG lightning, the ocasional CC strike. How come?

Some rain here at times today. Nothing much, but better then nothing. A nice bit of rain in the southwest atm too, and I am actually suprised to see the moderate stuff there, so hopefully it will continue to edge closer to us. A but of embedded thunder perhaps too.

Looks like tomorrow there should be some scattered showers in the northwest and wimmera IMO. The chance of one or two isolated thunderstorms as well.

A weeks time is still looking good with the next LWT.

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Post  Pengaz Sat Jun 13, 2009 8:38 pm

Nice little pocket of rain brushing the SW VIC coastline could provide some fruitful falls down there tonight with the current trajectory of the low (seems to be going more E'ward rather than NE'ward to me....).

Im watching to see whether cloud is trying to build in the Wimmera and the Mallee on the northern flank of this current rain band. I dont think a rumble is out of the question up that way overnight.

Nothing but cold here.

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Post  typhoon29 Sat Jun 13, 2009 8:41 pm

PS, only that well a few hours ago that rain blob had a few CG strikes on the lightning tracker. Funny how the forecast has no mention of thunderstorms. Usually with lows like this there is a good amount of instability. Prob cold cell hailstorms tomorrow as the low enters the state.
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Post  Karl Lijnders Sat Jun 13, 2009 9:48 pm

Hey guys.

I think there is a chance of a bit of tall convection about the place tomorrow - especially along the divide in the west and central regions and over border regions. I cannot see a great deal elsewhere as the synoptic pattern relaxes and the low dissolves on itself (US predicted this well from the start).

Anyhow presently about 2-5mm moving through the W and SW Central regions and Geelong. Could develop elsewhere over the Mornington Peninsula and Bass Coast regions as it moves ESE. Melbourne may pick up one or two showers overnight with the NW winds easing a little.

Still very chilly.
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Post  snowshow Sun Jun 14, 2009 10:51 am

Hi guys, thanks for the invite its very much appreciated. I had noticed some players where missing for a while Very Happy Anyhow, weather is overcast with sunny breaks but cold 9C no wind. Thanks for having me I will continue to update from my part of VIC. Cheers Ev
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Post  typhoon29 Sun Jun 14, 2009 11:01 am

balmy day today hottest day in weeks if cracking double digits counts! Nothing but blue skies. Although cloud on the West and NW horizon.
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Post  Hinezy Sun Jun 14, 2009 11:43 am

Interesting kind of a day today! I see the BOM are going for a possible storm late this afternoon and there's some Accas around which might show there's a little bit of instability out there.. Nice and clear to the north tho' so maybe that's where something might fire up a bit later on.

Nice cold upper temps too so if something does get going then hail might certainly be in the mix! Here's hoping for something anyway..

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Post  Johnno Sun Jun 14, 2009 12:02 pm

No worries Snowshow Smile & Please do

Managed to get to 16c so far here in Melbourne today break out the shorts and t-shirt haha feels balmy compared to the last few days

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Post  SC Sun Jun 14, 2009 12:11 pm

Be interested to see the next couple of visable Sat loops. Hopefully there is a bit more development wrapping round from the west. Arrow (wrap around symbol Laughing )
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Post  Dane Sun Jun 14, 2009 12:41 pm

Warmest day for about a week here up to 14.3 now, starting to struggle again as far as rain goes here with 37mm's for the month (ave 80mm's) and very little rain likely in the next five or six days at least. Crying or Very sad

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Post  Karl Lijnders Sun Jun 14, 2009 1:53 pm

The sky does look somewhat interesting but I cannot see thunderstorms at this point. Perhaps a few late showers from the north across the W and N but otherwise not much else.

A bizarre few days but things looking more promising later in the week into next weekend.
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Post  firestorm Sun Jun 14, 2009 3:37 pm

sky looks intersting this evening there some rain about the rangers and out to sea here looking quiet stormy! Getting a few drops of rain as i type Smile

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Post  hillybilly Sun Jun 14, 2009 4:23 pm

Spent the day in the Upper Yarra Valley - up at Donna Buang in the morning and then an afternoon in the sun at Warburton. Some very nice Cu developed but didn't see the Cb's which developed later on and brought the falls around Baw Baw etc. One of the best covers of snow I've seen at Donna Buang but melting extremely quickly - I'ld estimate a temperature of about 5C up there today at lunchtime.

The low is now weakening and being replaced by a broad easterly trough. Some reasonable showers likely to spread across the far northwest in the next 24 hours and rain/showers spreading into Gippsland and probably the Otways with the potential for some good falls but inbetween little or nothing. Rolling Eyes

Now we look to the next system in ~5 days time.

PS some nice totals clocking up in SA - lots of 10-20mm falls since 9am and some heavy rain falling ATM north of Adelaide.

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Post  typhoon29 Sun Jun 14, 2009 5:07 pm

the way that low is moving and spiraling south western and western vic won't see much rain. Mildura is going to get smashed in the next hour or so.
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Post  Power Storm Sun Jun 14, 2009 5:31 pm

No probs typhoon.

Victoria was not going to benifit much out of this system at all, well the most part, the northwest and parts of the Wimmera and Western districts could get a few mm into the gauge IMO tonight with some patchy rain in the northwest and isolated-scattered showers popping up in the remaining western districts. Even still the risk for isolated thunderstorms to develop about the southwest mostly - probably south of a line from Ballarat to the SA/VIC border the storm risks will remain.

It was very stormy looking here today. A few cumulus towers this afternoon too at our friends place, I really thought things were going to get going, and it reminded me of a Summers day.

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Post  Karl Lijnders Sun Jun 14, 2009 6:16 pm

Some showers moving off the NE ranges into outer Melbourne currently. A bit of AccAs about as well across the region here.

Possibly up to 5mm out of them if we are lucky.
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