Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Geez, it's really picked up momentum in the last half hour. Can't wait....

Line of showers approaching from the west, seems to be weakening a little and a fairly thin line too, doubt we will get much more than about 2mm's from it here in Cranbourne. Fairly cold here today with temps from 4.9c to 13.7c, now 12.8c. Looks certain to be below average here again this month with only 38.6mm's so far (ave 80mm's) I doubt that we will reach 50mm's for the month.

Just got back from a walk with the dogs and had a good view of the CBD and to the North of it. Looks to be building with some decent bases starting to appear and rain or virga curtains in patches. Couldn't see much to the SW of the city, but it is looking threatening.

The band is narrow but seems the core rainfall rates are pretty high (up to 10-20mm/hr) and the band is sliding partially along its axis. LAPS has ~14mm for areas near Melbourne out of it - OK wouldn't take that as a definite, but we may be surprised with a quick 5-10mm. These north->south bands often build up as they pass Macedon (ie where the topography is more broken) so next few frames will be critical.

Again it is crucial for those looking at the radar to stick to 512km to get an idea of what the real rainfall rates are.

I agree with DJ, there are plenty of embedded heavy rainfall pockets so any one of those could dump a bit more than 1km down the road.

May see some lightning from this time too so time to get on the roof

BTW - A quick fire 3mm at Avalon with 35 knot N winds so that is not bad going. This will hopefully translate east.. Could actually stall over Melbourne as it dives south/southeast.

Stop it Karl, you are getting me excited!

let me know when the lightning becomes visible over this way karl

edit: reports from a friend of a huge electrical storm just passed through heathcote

hail as well

had steady rain for about 30 mins here, nice little drop. Adelaide looks like they are about to get slammed! Radar looks most impressive.

Well I could see some CCs (probable CGs closer in) to my N and NW over the last half hour. Got some big rain drops before so there is development over our heads as the band comes closer. NW winds developing here now.

Hoping that it picks up a bit more like it is around the bayside presently.

I am just so excited to see something convective!!!

A funny day here in Ballarat today, this morning saw showers weaken then a long sunny period and in rolled the developing/weakening developing again squall line poured at around 3:25pm yet to check rain gauge. Alas no flash bang....damn it! Now calm and stary out No cloud.

4.5mm from the band

Can confrim that, few flashes in the NW from here, nice drop of rain too

Bloody Seymour!!!! That place is a flamin' lightning magnet!

Amazing scud features across the region here with fresh NW/W winds increasing. I think we are not far off from having some flashes to my south or in the local region with convection building for areas around the Bass Coast.

Fair bit of rain here but no flashes, just heard a rumble. Winds gusting over 30km/h.

chucking it down out there, absolutely pi***ing down

Yeah coming down here too James with gutters overflowing at times. Back to steady now but certainly a nice hard drop.

Yeah, great rain, no flashes or sounds, just nice steady rain although has stopped

Rain increasing here but the more astounding thing has been the wind profile within this rainfall - gusty NW/W winds, shifted gusty Nly with the heaviest rainfall on the front edge and now in ENE winds. Absolutely strange.

However not uncommon in summer time situations.

I think if we hit the forecast 18-20C then it would have been an exceptional afternoon but none the less rain is great! That is all!!!

Hammered down here with a peak rainfall rate of 46mm/hr. A bit of small hail thrown in - but no thunder - though probably wouldn't hear it over the rain anyway. Shame it's all zipping through so quickly - two hours of this and I'ld be happy At this stage up to 3mm and might get to 5mm.

Is impressive that EC got the timing on this band almost perfect and was pretty good with the rainfall totals.

James wrote:chucking it down out there, absolutely pi***ing down

Where is out there James
Fill in your location for those of us that dont know you eh

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND, FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in parts of the
Northern Country and
Northeast Forecast Districts.


Issued at 7:41 pm Tuesday, 23 June 2009.


Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds, very heavy rainfall, flash flooding and large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Yarrawonga, Wodonga and Wangaratta.


Radar indicates a line of thunderstorms from Tocumwal to Shepparton moving to the east and southeast to 40 to 50 km/h. The largest storm is currently near Tocumwal.

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Still got steady rain here, it's stalling through the eastern suburbs.

Finished with around 4.4mm here which was a good effort considering the duration, I thought I had less but alas... I will take that!

Lightning still flickering to my far NE sky.

Up to 15mm at Pyalong (related to the Heathcote observations earlier) so that goes to show that the thunderstorms had potential. Naturally the southern end just died over Melbourne

Had 3mm's here all up which was a fraction more than i though, all gone now and not much in the next two or three days I think.

Just partly cloudy now and remaining fine.

The radar looks magnificent I must say for central/eastern parts and good old thunderstorms developing there, should be similar tomorrow afternoon about the nrotheast and eastern ranges. Chance of locally severe storms again there.

Well storms did not develop near here, though I did manage to see a great CB today and lightning last night to my south and northwest, and now tonight to my south (over the ocean).

Fantastic line of storms, go away for an hour or two and they keep marching on when i hop back in front of the comp. Nice to see this time of year. There's a possibility that i could be moving to Canberra next year, so perhaps many of these types of systems will be within reach on weekdays which i think will be a real positive. But i'll cross that bridge when i actually HAVE to move;)