Victoria: Low Pressure System. June 21st-27th 2009

Very messy viewing currently. The more mature clouds will present much darker and turbulent bases. With higher DPs - cloud obstruction was always going to happen.

Will try and keep you guys posted. I am at school so it is hard to get computer access. Probably my next post will be at 4.30pm, lol... The action will be well and trully started by then. Convection just happeing everywhere here, seems like there is a cell developing COlac way - I can just see the top of something in that direction Anthony - and a fighsty cell developing in the far SW. Looks like I am in the firing line this arvo. Lets hope.

Just had some big raindrops for 5 mins but suns trying to poke it's head out. Very unstable looking but just annoying rainfall at the moment. As you said Karl, things are building over next couple of hrs. Will be nice to see some flashes after dark.

Rhino.

Thanks boys. There seems to be something starting to develop over the SW. I suspect the line due north will start soon from that precip.

Weve had thick fog for most of the morning, finally cleared in the last hour and a bit. Nothing much to report, blue skies all around by the look

Looks good for a bit of a rumble west of Melbourne today. I dunno about large hail, but definitely a chance for some good rain accumulations if you get stuck under a cell as ive seen in the past they tend to backbuild nicely in the N-S orientation, particularly through the Melbourne region.

Hoping to see widespread showers at least!

Looks to be some flashes on the radar near Coleraine with a line building up towards Horsham

Looking very convective on the ranges to the north and west currently. Nice fibrous tops.

I'm keeping a close eye on the vis sat which has been looking decent all day.

Looks like there could be a few embedded CB's within all this mid level cloud.

Vis Sat for Victoria

a deluge forming back in Adelaide closer to the low.

I wonder if the line that is firing now sw of Warnambool will stretch further north as a line of convection?

superb light outside atm. Someone just knock me off now, i'm close enough to Ascot Vale, i'm sick of work;( Should be out side taking photos.

Can anyone confirm if that line out west is accas or cu on sat pic?
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=vic&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=

The sun is out here and it is the most amazing sky with this orange glow on the trees with a backdrop of almost green/grey virga. Stunning!

Very turbulent bases about the place, first rows of mid level instability moving in overhead which could form into showers/storms over the coming few hours locally.

Looks like a few mm for all tonight. I think some areas could get 15mm.

BTW a few cells starting to fire in between radar coverage on the road between Echuca and Bendigo. Rikki if you are around what is it looking like? Ron in Kerang??

Geez Karl is that how you get your number of posts up so high Suns just out here but around 2mm before.

Rhino.

Greg Sorenson wrote:Can anyone confirm if that line out west is accas or cu on sat pic?
http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=vic&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=

Some of it looks like Cumulus mate, near the coast mostly, though the stuff inland looks like ACCAS. An area to watch though for some late activity, actually looks like some stuff developing right near Warrnambool now unless thats a false echo on the radar.

I saw the most spectacular mamatus on the way home on the bus tonight. Heaps of it, large lumps of it too underneath a great looking anvil from a non-lightning active CB. It was great, but it would of been better if there were some lightning! Chance still continues.

For this afternoon/evening.... Isolated thunderstorms likely to develop over central areas, moving eastwards with the patchy rain band, locally heavy falls, and also storms possibly developing in the southwest again shortly.

For some reason the approaching line looks a LOT better on the Melbourne Airport radar!

Melbourne Airport Radar Loop

Melbournians should be able to score a few mm out of that band if it holds.

Rofl, maybe there is a squadron of B52's flying our way;)

Message from Rikki that the back end of the active cell now se of Bendigo looks pretty nice. Decent amount of mamma around too. Everything's moving pretty quick.

I await with baited breathe, holding it's current course it could reach the western burbs/ city within the hour.

Sorry about the three billion posts, some technical difficulties

I have stated yesterday that to get the best view of what the rain is really doing - go to the 512km composite radar. Melbourne AP also doesn't give a true representation.

Can see fresh convection ahead of the approaching thundery rain band.

rainning heavy as i type very dark out hopefully a flash and a rumble. Actually its bucketing down now

Gezz after a nuff nuff day of it trying to decide to rain or not LOL Its actually getting dark and threatening Temp dropping as well

Here is the storm charts from the BoM. Its generally what we all expected.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 10:42 am Tuesday, 23 June 2009,
Valid until midnight on Tuesday, 23 June 2009.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected in the area shown, particularly during the late afternoon and early evening. Given the wind profile there is a small risk of some storms producing damaging winds.


Jake.

Some strikes coming down in line with Melbourne from the NNW. Interesting few hours ahead. May be some strong NW/W winds as the line moves through too of up to 45 knots.

I just went outside for a quick look and there is fresh and not too bad looking convection to my west at the moment in the far distance, and then I look to the east and it is threatening. Large cumulus is evident there, but it hangs so low.

Please get photos of that thunderstorm as it approaches/possibly hits Melbourne from the north.

too right about the winds on the way, dopplar looks quite defined.

still rainning here! The sky a second ago was amazing to the north it was a bright orange in the west was a dark purple and pitch black everywhere else was a great sight only lasted a 1min or so.

May be a little dark here for structure but perhaps some of the others inland may have a better go.

Yeah I think as these descend off the ranges the winds will amplify a little more. Fingers crossed they are severe suckers!!!

Still looking OK for around 5-10mm... Just hope another line can form just inside the main band.