South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

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Post  DarkEye on Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:12 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:Hi James,

Convection is still occuring however the flow is too westerly in the uppers so it will remain coastal for the next 24hrs.

Once conditions shift tomorrow things will turn wet and cold fast for us out here.

Still the risk remains this afternoon.

Swell, I wish you guys could have it all, I'm sick of it already and besides, you guys could do wonders with the rain we get.
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Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:15 pm

Hi DE.

Plenty more rain for you the next few days but we will catch up!!! Had close to 30mm overnight your way.
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Post  Rivergirl on Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:28 pm

2.5mm here in Ferny Creek in the last 24 hrs

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Post  firestorm on Wed Jul 01, 2009 2:43 pm

well what a great arvo we have had here hail, thunder, lightning, gales and sideways rain its be a blast right now got another shower over head and have had 7mm since 1.30 this arvo cheers

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Post  Madmel on Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:00 pm

Coldies are kicking in now. Nice a chilly outside can only wonder what the next fews days are going to be like Very Happy Sounds like a few areas have got some nice totals so far. Hopefully the catchments get a pounding as well.

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Post  AmaroK on Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:06 pm

Is it just me, or did the Melbourne radar actually just come back online?
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Post  firestorm on Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:14 pm

AmaroK wrote:Is it just me, or did the Melbourne radar actually just come back online?
yesh it seems to be back in action.

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Post  DC449 on Wed Jul 01, 2009 3:35 pm

yeah and the showers are either going to the north or south of me Rolling Eyes
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Post  typhoon29 on Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:01 pm

I call no joy here in Ballarat, the stormy stuff never moved much inland. Had some regulation showers this morning then it fined up with sun most of the day; mind you bloody cold, then the regulation showers around now although rather brief. Still windy WSW.
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Post  DarkEye on Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:03 pm

Had some intermittent showers here today, but it wouldn't have been a half bad day here if the wind wasn't so bad.
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Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:33 pm

Highest falls around the state include 42mm at Mt Buffalo Chalet (since 9am and 100mm since yesterday) and 27mm near Benalla.

Metropolitan Melbourne's highest is way down south at Westernport where 16mm fell in quick time with a lot of hail. Temps dropped to 6.5C at Rhyll on Phillip Island but has since recovered to 13C.

I have had 3mm here today and a few hail showers this afternoon, real variation rainfall wise. 5-7mm to my south and just to my north where the cores went over.

Cloudy currently but expecting little.

----------------
Thursday: Showers and isolated thunderstorms with hail about the west and central coasts extending inland during the late morning and becoming more widespread, possibly tending to a period of rain on the change. Snow falls extending down to 900m later and winds reaching gale force during the afternoon about most southern and mountain areas, shifting squally SW during the day.

Friday: Rain areas and showers over most southern and mountain areas with scattered hail and isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers over the northern plains becoming isolated and clearing the northwest. Strong and gusty SSW winds, locally storm force over the east coast easing gradually during the afternoon. Blizzards easing to snow showers during the afternoon above 900m.

Saturday: Showers, tending to rain at first over the east with local hail and thunder easing from the west. Fine after frost areas, locally severe, in the north. Cloudy throughout with strong southerly winds easing from the west.
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Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 01, 2009 4:45 pm

Just had a lovely hail shower and pretty heavy downpour, no doubt DJ you should be getting a fair amount of hail right now.
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Post  Sniper on Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:08 pm

I am one who bashes BOM from time to time, but I am very impressed with their turnaround with the radar cheers

Funny old day today, no let up in wind but in the wrong place to cop hail. I always thought Thursday would be the best day, and it looks to be that way, especially later in the day.

Well done to those receiving a good drop or two.

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Post  DarkEye on Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:10 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:----------------

Thursday: Showers and isolated thunderstorms with hail about the west and central coasts extending inland during the late morning and becoming more widespread, possibly tending to a period of rain on the change. Snow falls extending down to 900m later and winds reaching gale force during the afternoon about most southern and mountain areas, shifting squally SW during the day.

Friday: Rain areas and showers over most southern and mountain areas with scattered hail and isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers over the northern plains becoming isolated and clearing the northwest. Strong and gusty SSW winds, locally storm force over the east coast easing gradually during the afternoon. Blizzards easing to snow showers during the afternoon above 900m.

Saturday: Showers, tending to rain at first over the east with local hail and thunder easing from the west. Fine after frost areas, locally severe, in the north. Cloudy throughout with strong southerly winds easing from the west.

Thanks Karl, I've missed this.
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Post  Twister on Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:38 pm

Another forum wow its all happened while been away

If didnt know, i have spent a year in the USA studying at world class meteorology organizations and Uni,s chasing tornadoes was unreal saw 5 it was great now back here and weather has be a little wild which has been great

Here in Mildura have had 50mm last 6 weeks which is great front yesterday brought 1mm of rain 100km winds LOTS of damage was unreal every 3rd tree is down or damaged had trucks blown over roofs off and debris all over the shop huge dust storm came in with it was unreal.

Today was nothing day here just cloud cool and windy

See that front way down in the bight atm roaring Ne, will bring another wild and woolly day to Vic SW Central and Ne will do very well lots of Rain Gales Hail thunder and snow.
Hopefully get bit up here to but we never do well out of these Sw systems.

Enjoy down south once flow goes Sw will be very interesting front tomorrow should be a lot of fun also

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Post  hillybilly on Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:47 pm

"Just had a lovely hail shower and pretty heavy downpour, no doubt DJ you should be getting a fair amount of hail right now."

Been side swiped by lots of showers today but nothing really over the top from what I can tell. 3.7mm to add to the 4.5mm yesterday. Was sheets of water in Boronia just before 6pm where a particularly intense shower went overhead - looked to me like close to 10mm had fallen. An almost winter like 10.1C here today.

Must have been some impressive hail on the south coast/south Gippsland coasts with those big temperature drops - Rhylls ~6C drop to 6.9C and Pound Creeks 7C drop to 5.7C around 3pm is rather amazing at sea level.

Also fantastic to see it dumping down in the northeast - lots of even totals getting into the 50-100mm range (as Karl mentioned). Could even squeeze a minor flood warning if this continues Very Happy

Next 72 hours should really turn it on in the south (and the north initially). We have the rather unusual set up of strong upslide/warm air advection in westerly flow as the upper trough passes into eastern Vic tomorrow (in essence a warm frontal feature). Would not be surprised to see period of rain and drizzle with that set up ahead of the shift to colder SW winds.

BTW also looks like the whole system will be slower than expected to clear with a follow-up front now on Sunday and possibly a weak front on Monday (each stalling the high).

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Post  typhoon29 on Wed Jul 01, 2009 5:52 pm

just checked the gauge 6mm for today plus 5 from yesterday a ok 11mm. Not a breathe of wind outside, going to be very cold outside tonight. Intersting to see on the satellite pic how the low is still sucking in moisture from the WNW of Australia (Shark Bay). Gee that cold front way south may have a fair punch. Prob get snow on the hills around here tomorrow night.
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Post  Melbourne Skywalker on Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:24 pm

3mm here since early yesterday for this system so far. Pretty much as predicted for this area. That cold front down in the bight sure does look really good on the Sat. I agree, Thursday is going to be the best day for this system.

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Post  lightnin on Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:46 pm

Karl Lijnders wrote:Getting reports of intense hail west of Geelong. Not sure ok size.

Got stuck in that hail south west of Geelong, the road was white and all the paddocks were too! Looked like it had snowed and the temp dropped pretty quickly. Most hail was about 4 - 5 mm with the odd 10 mm size.. some lightning and thunder, can't remember the last storm i saw!!!

It was a strip about a km wide, could have been 5 or 10 mm in it too.

Don't think there was any rain at home, but hopefully some to come over the next few days?

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Post  typhoon29 on Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:02 pm

my uncle drove from Colac to Gordon this afternoon, Near Meredith he had to stop because the hail and wind was soooo bad! He also said as he left Colac it was raining and hailing so heavy it was if God had unleashed a hovering waterfall.
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Post  Power Storm on Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:12 pm

We had that earlier in the day Typhoon. Lucky I was not driving in Colac today!

Well it was a fantastic day here in SW Vic. It started off with the very strong NW winds and drier weather, some cloud increased and looked quite stormy as I checked the gauge at 9am. We had 16.2mm of rain for the previous 24 hours. A nice fall. And then I checked the radar and saw all the isolated thunderstorms in SA and SW Vic, which most directly moved over, including the convergence line early afternoon with heaps of Cg lightning and thunder, not to mention heavy hail showers as well. It will be interesting to see the gauge tomorrow morning and also the weather tomorrow.

An active system passing through again, a stronger one then todays trough, and it should increase shower activity from the west and see it push further inland this time. Also, more squally isolated thunderstorms chucked into the mix and further lines developing, particularly just ahead, with and following the front. Best of luck to all tomorrow to score the important mm and see some lightning.

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Post  DC449 on Wed Jul 01, 2009 7:37 pm

Well boring day here, did not even get a shower, it either went to the north or south of me. Hopefully we get something good tomorrow, i bet it will come when im at footy training Rolling Eyes .
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Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jul 01, 2009 8:28 pm

I must say that is a very severe cluster of storms off the coast heading towards Wilsons Prom. Maybe a STW likely for that region later.
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Post  droughtbreaker on Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:02 pm

Well, a bit of sideways rain at 7am this morning and very blustery conditions with decent wind chill. Looks like a little more during the day. 6.7mm since yesterday evening on top of 12.1mm before that, so 18.8mm total all up. Models are keen on a classic wild winters day tomorrow with rain, hail and the works. Once the winds turn SW though we will start to get dudded here, looks like no wind shift to the S now in the progs so can't see that much happening locally particularly Friday and Saturday. Maybe another 10mm here maximum I reckon, at least it's a start. Being stuck at work in Melbourne means that ,in the short term, this weather becomes more of a hindrance than anything but at the end of the day I'm just happy to see the rain in the gauge and the ground wet for once.

Annoying though, anything decent weather wise that does happen most of us are stuck in an office and disconnected from it.

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Post  DC449 on Wed Jul 01, 2009 9:17 pm

Well the showers i thought i would of got has just lost its touch once it hit the bay
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