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South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009

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Post  hillybilly Thu Jul 02, 2009 5:31 am

Nothing more to add to the total last night - ended up with 3.7mm so event total stands at 8.3mm. Rolling Eyes Some ripper falls along the coast (as has happened so often in recent months), and falls continuing along the northern slopes of the divide.

Suspect today will again see the very best of the weather along the coastal strips as the low passes through Bass Strait - looks like the front makes it into central Vic just after 7pm which is when the action should start for Melbourne.

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Post  Alexia Thu Jul 02, 2009 5:42 am

Yesterday we had little showers all day but only registered 1.5mm rain until dark. Overnight we had another 7mm we have had 51.5mm rain since Saturday.There have been areas around here with a lot more rain.Should be a nice run off for the Hume Dam.

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Post  AmaroK Thu Jul 02, 2009 8:47 am

Well, rather boring overcast day today. Temps are slowly...very slowly moving up, on about 11.5 here only half a degree away from the predicted max in the eastern burbs around scoresby. Razz. Not sure what to expect today,Current radar images seem to suggest most of the activity will be concentrated on the coast again,
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Post  Power Storm Thu Jul 02, 2009 8:49 am

Another 25mm in the 24 hours to 9am this morning. Good falls but yes they have been mostly restricted to western and coastal districts. An active radar at the moment and we should see showers and squally thunderstorms increase from the west early/mid afternoon as the front enters and the low passes to the south later. Expect winds to increase then too back to gale force.

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Post  firestorm Thu Jul 02, 2009 9:27 am

10m to 9am this morning and have added only 0.2mm til now but its cold! Its seems to be a little too west atm the otways and lorne are coping it but it dosent make it much further once it get a little south in the flow our showers will increase this arvo Smile

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Post  firestorm Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:05 am

i have some lightning comming in this band thats slowly sneaking up on me its about 15min away! The radars is looking great for the arvo.

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Post  Sniper Thu Jul 02, 2009 10:56 am

Flood watch in place for the North East, after some handy falls, with more forecasted. Let's hope this activity occurs throughout all districts over the next day or so.

A dreary old day in town, with little to no precipitaion. Bring on a wild and wolly night!!

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Post  Sniper Thu Jul 02, 2009 12:51 pm

Nice chunky band coming thru, but it obviously identified the CBD and is tracking NE. Anyone in Melton will be enjoying some wet stuff very soon!!

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Post  AmaroK Thu Jul 02, 2009 12:55 pm

Few spots of rain falling here in bayswater as the light rain ahead of that band of rain in the west approaches. Now my question is, last 3 days have seen lighting in the west, dying off by the time it reaches the east, could it be possible it might fire off in the east tonight ? Or has Karl's over optimistic point of view rubbed off on me ? Razz
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Post  Sniper Thu Jul 02, 2009 12:58 pm

Fingers crossed for some crash and boom but I ain't holding my breath.

Light shower activity in CBD at the moment.

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Post  Johnno Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:07 pm

I'm not even holding my breath for rain (proper rain anyway not drizzle) the band is breaking up right over me going North and South of me right on cue did it right over my area again here in the inner NW suburbs

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Post  DC449 Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:09 pm

Why does the rain break up over the bay?
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Post  mick Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:12 pm

DC449 wrote:Why does the rain break up over the bay?

Because I live on the bay and I am a curse!

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Post  AmaroK Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:25 pm

ok that's it Mick, im deporting you to Queensland, you might help stop the now regular flooding up there.

Having said that, you seem to be right, the band is breaking up again, although we may get lucky and have a bit of a build up again as it nears the ranges. Not sure we'll get much more than a couple of mm in most areas, and naturally it will all be in time for my drive home at 5:30. Karl has been very quiet today, so we must not have much likelihood of good results.
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Post  mick Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:41 pm

Latest sat pic looks like it will be a cold night, should be some hail around later.

South East low sequence June 27-July 6 2009 - Page 9 Noaa-20090702-n-msa-precip-thumb

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Post  AmaroK Thu Jul 02, 2009 1:57 pm

Getting some semi decent rainfall at the moment, looks like this band of yellow on the radar has hit right over me here at work.
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Post  SC Thu Jul 02, 2009 2:14 pm

Had 7mm from this system so far, probably another couple of mm from that first rain band that just went through. The next one looks to be building quite nicely.
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Post  firestorm Thu Jul 02, 2009 2:43 pm

2.6mm this arvo and the temp has dropped to 9 wind is starting to swing round to the SW! Its going to be quiet some time till i can feel my fingers an toes after just having a surf(silly idea really) loving the weather this arvo though. Cool

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Post  Luken Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:10 pm

Up to 3.5mm here, and looks like it will set in for a while. Been very lean here with the first part of this system and todays models certainly were a downgrade (although probably far more realistic than yesterdays). The next 12-24 hours however do hold some good potential IMHO. Usually do better from the later stages of these types of systems.

I just hope the Thompson catchment gets 50mm+ for the event. Then follow ups......uhhhhhh......wish I could forget about that bit.... No


Last edited by Luken on Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:11 pm; edited 1 time in total (Reason for editing : speeeeling ;))
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Post  mick Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:19 pm

Hmm well since logging is now allowed in the Thomson catchment, the stump holes have to fill up first!

heres some serious info on the Thomson catchment which is interesting.

logging in catchments

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Post  James Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:22 pm

where is all this thunder and hail they've been talking about... just light rain here

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Post  mick Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:25 pm

James wrote:where is all this thunder and hail they've been talking about... just light rain here

Yes this side of the bay has been missing out. The bands of rain hit the bay which is warmer than the rest of the atmosphere and it all goes to custard.

This is an interesting site that records bay temp data.

bay temps

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Post  Luken Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:45 pm

mick wrote:Hmm well since logging is now allowed in the Thomson catchment, the stump holes have to fill up first!

heres some serious info on the Thomson catchment which is interesting.

logging in catchments

Interesting article mick. It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to log the catchment areas if you ask me. Surely we can survive quite nicely without old growth forest logging. Especially in our catchment areas. I mean 20% increase over 60 years if stopped now, would mean the difference of another couple of desal plants...... Mad clown Arrow

Still raining here. Be up to 6mm or so by now I reckon. Radar seems to think we will get a break soon though. Hopefully it will swing more SW before long. Nice SW stream overnight is what we need.
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Post  firestorm Thu Jul 02, 2009 3:57 pm

oh no looking at the radar going to get pounded in about 5min cheers

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Post  mick Thu Jul 02, 2009 4:01 pm

I dont know anyone that has a problem with selective logging of the catchments. Take out the odd very old tree before it rots or falls down, use it to make furniture or a house frame etc. Mountain Ash, beautiful timber.

Problem is that the timber is just used for dunny paper and such, which is just a waste.

All over Australia, the loggers leave 25-50 meters in from the road intact so you dont notice, but rape the rest with a dead earth policy. Then there is all the timber that they consider not worth taking out, which is subsequently burnt. Huge logs sometimes, its very sad. In Taswegia some people go in and collect this timber, but it is frowned upon.

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