Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Just 2.4mm's here overnight, still 8mm's short of the monthly average. Big band of rain out to the west, unfortunately its sliding to the SE and missing most of the metro area, Geelong doing ok out of it though. Still unstable out there so maybe some heavier showers later with the chance of a thunderstorm. Could still get 5 to 10mm's out of it in the next 24 hours.

Certainly getting much darker here and the band seems to be developing on it's northern flank. I still say that we will get some good falls around Melbourne.

All the models are saying rain after 10:00am !!

I am not writing it off yet.

Either the rain shadow had more of an affect for Melbourne than expected or the ranges had a major influence on developing rain areas away from the west. 6.7mm here which is still a very low total compared to what was expected.

You'd think I'd be happy with getting something but watching the radar with that band of very heavy rain to the west likely to just scrape south of here whilst places in Melbourne probably get 20mm+ is very frustrating. Wasn't expecting this to be a south of the ranges event. Pretty disheartening really after the last system that was widespread.

Overcast out there and very grey but nothing on radar or satellite that indicates we'll (my area) get anything more than a few showers for the rest of this event. Boring weekend ahead now.

Well we had 10mm over night with bigh falls from 4am onwards..nice to listen to the rain on the roof in bed!. Currently we are stuck in a cloud with lots of light rain that is not doing anything. Quite warm too at 8 degrees.

I look forward to this avo, i think last nights would have been a bonus. The real fun begins later today if models are to be believed. Out to get my chase food this morning;) I'll post up when i leave later on.

looking very good, loks like there will be 10 - 20mm across most parts and of course a lot higher in the NE. Expect activity to become a lot more widespread this afternoon and it should be a noisy arvo as well.

Just saw the -ve LIs this afternoon with cold uppers (and lowers) moving in late this afternoon and tonight so i see where everyone is coming from now. Still going to be a frustrating wait until then.

Yeah, most model showed rainfall activity to increase over Melbourne after 10am, so Melbourne, you guys are not out of it yet, and the radar is showing a band of rain thickening up, and I suspect it could possibly back build over you guys, but I am not promising it.

We had 9mm to 9am, and it was mostly light to moderate rain last night, now its stopped and to the west things look very convective.

The front this afternoon is looking better than what I orginally thought. Should see showers increase across the southwest this afternoon and even tend to rain perhaps, and thunderstorms develop as well, particularly near the front where we have -3 LI's moving into the west and spreading eastwards later, before turning cold-air type after the change. Still rain ahead.

I'm getting heavy drops here at work. Looking very ominous with a thundery rain band to my west.

11mm in the last hour in parts.

As you can see from my earlier posts I am quite sleep deprived and irrational today.

Well best of luck to you all our chances of decent rainfall are now virtually over now for this event so I will be looking for the next chance. Although once again been burnt by taking too much from models. Seems once you get a little bit of faith going in them, they do this to us and we get burnt. Why can't we just have a break and have a system that just bloody delivers.

First drops of rain starting to fall here.

There is a lot of rain out there, but it is all to the south of me. Still at 0.0mm for this system.

13.1c 996.9 DP 9.7c

After a little rain last night, raining again now

A bit interesting now with the rain band breaking up and reforming over eastern Melbourne and South Gippsland and convective showers starting to become more general inland. Just got hit by a heavy shower here but has slackened off again now. No thunder in this.

Well woke up to the nice sound of raindrops here. A little heavier than the radar would suggest. but still nothing to write home about. What is interesting to note is that we hit our predicted max i this area at 8:30 this morning. Not sure how that is going to effect things. just living in hope that temp can push a little higher.

Just tipped 10mm out of the gauge form light rain most of the night and this morning. Looks like we will have a sunny break now till this afternoon.
Rainfall is now above ave for the last 4 months
Water was trickling into Lake Wallace at Edenhope yesterday form an overflowing swamp south of the town. This might ramp up the flow a bit

Malleefarmer wrote:Well best of luck to you all our chances of decent rainfall are now virtually over now for this event so I will be looking for the next chance. Although once again been burnt by taking too much from models. Seems once you get a little bit of faith going in them, they do this to us and we get burnt. Why can't we just have a break and have a system that just bloody delivers.

Amen to that!! We had 3.7 mm overnight taking August total to 20.3. Maybe that approaching front and cold pool will deliver more than the models reckon - meh, wishful thinking. It's the next 2 months which haven't delivered for the past 3 years, the BOM's "lower than average" spring rains outlook doesn't give much solace, although lower than average could still be a lot more than we got in 07 and 08!

Probably going to get shot down in flames here for saying this... But it is Weather people! It is as improbbable to predict (Not impossible, improbbable) as he the winning lottery numbers.So when it doesnt come off, Get over it! I'm sick of hearing wingeing! I like the weather and a huge storm outbreak as much as anyone on this forum, but unlike alot of people, I dont get all riled up over it is a 'fizzer' or a 'flop'. Wait it out and see what happens. If you want action, then go to it! You are but a pin prick on a very large body of land. If you get hit, boo yah! But flipping hell, if you dont... Build a bridge and get over it!

Now venting over...
I'm liking the next front (or possibly the first) coming through this afternoon. Might meet up with Greg somewhere I think. Have to check with the boss first.

Seriously when is anyone going to use this emoticon? haha

There you go Ricki just for you.

And the fact that since 9:55am it has been raining and not stopped. Go the models!

If they predict it, it will come.....(this time)

LOL at posting while half asleep, I recommend large quantities of coffee AmaroK Morning everyone, another late riser here (late night). Rain has been steady but light here since I woke up, we've had just under 1mm so far, doesn't look like stopping any time soon.

Still at 0.0mm here. See the break on the radar? i am right in that.

13.4c 997.0 dp 10.0c

Shame this rain band isn't further north and wide spread sticking south of the hills

Inland mostly missed out last night only 3-5mm around, Sw did better though, Even the Ne have had hardly anything but some nice storms up that way atm

Should be wet day here 6mm looking good by night fall, just wish it was more widespread and inland

Well the pressure has dropped to 994.8 at the prom! This system is starting to look interesting!

Please don't hold back at all Rikki

Fairly heavy rain here the last hour but easing now. Nice and green.

Should see thunderstorms develop along the second band in C VIC

Well the pressure has dropped to 994.8 at the prom! This system is starting to look interesting!

Am down in Sandy Point (just above the Prom) and it is raining in sheets. I'd estimate in the range of 10-20mm/hr and just driving. The paddocks are full of water and water is over the roads (we've had 150mm for August now - obviously getting some of the Tassie weather which has otherwise missed most of Vic. Would not be surprised to see the 25-50mm that GFS has been forecasting down here at this rate.

The radar looks very sad for Melbourne ATM - SO much rain SO close but not near enough (BTW looks like Ferny Creek is up to about 5mm).