October'09 Rainfall predictions

Now that September is all but completed, time to look into the crystal ball and guess what the rainfall will be for October'09. A bit like closest to the pin, a prize (still to be secured) will be on offer to whom picks the nearest rainfall figure (Melbourne CBD rainfall figure).

PM me with your figure and I will add it to this post. Entries close by 6pm Friday.

Scott Lawrance 32mm
Norfolk. 45.7mm
Windyrob 84mm
Johnoo 37mm
floydlove 40mm
Karl 58mm
Mutley 47mm
Power Storm 52mm
hillybilly 60.2mm
Sniper 78mm
Windyrob 84mm

Optimistic there Sniper. I don't have such a good feeling about October, 40mm but probably a lot less. Hmm, happy to be proven way wrong.

I too am very nervous that the good run we've had is going to cut out. Read today that BOM thinks October will be average but November will be dry. Not convinced. On that note I'm going for 32mm.

37mm but if the Ec scenario comes off next week could easily be 107mm

"Official" BoM chart http://poama.bom.gov.au/experimental/poama15/plots/latest/ma_rte30_hr24prcp_1.png shows Melbourne running 6mm below average for the month Best put me down for 60.2mm (the average is 66.2mm).

Next week could make or break our predictions.

The problems we have encountered in springs gone has been the transition between the Zonal westerly flow to the meridional phases which dominate the warmer months.

Next week shows potentially what we have missed out on and could cause significant flooding.

ok, sounds like fun! I say 45.7mm with most of it, if not all falling during the 1st 2 weeks of the month. (Out here I guess 29.9mm). Do I still need to PM you with my guess?

I'm going for 84mm, 35mm in the first two weeks followed by a big storm near the end of the month that dumps 50mm in a day

Geez, lots of optimism. It's good to see, I really hope the one's going for higher than average are right haha.

Well, I'm an optimist as well and think we might see some better rainfall (albeit still below average) and I don't believe the doomsday forecasts that people are saying in terms of the next fire season and summer will be as bad as predicted.

Only time will tell.

The problem I see for October is that we will probably get some good rainfall across the state during the first half but then remain pretty much dry the rest of the month. As windyrob says, there may be something right at the end of the month as well. According to the melbourne 28 day rainfall forecast we could possible have an 18 day stretch of no rainfall at all, and if there is any kind of significant heat during the month, things could dry off very quickly. This september rain and the early october rain is probably leading to lots of new growth that will be quick to burn in the middle of summer if heat and winds return.

Just a thought, I am no expert in these matters!

PS. I hope the link works but this is what I was refering to
http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindates.jsp?lc=v00&dc=disableCookies

I have secured a number of prizes for this competion. The winner (Scott in the box seat!!) will have a choice of:

2 x Movie Passes
or
Print of Black Saturday painting

Please note that the print will not be immediately available, unlike the movie tickets.

Hi Sniper - this is a competition I would be quite happy to lose and if I do win it will be a very bitter sweet victory. I want the rain like everyone else but had a feeling the tap would be turned off quite suddenly after our run of great rainfall.

Wow sounds good Wes thanks for doing that for whoever wins.

17.2mm so far well below average in the city. If the weekend comes off we may get 10 to 20mm in the city and with abit of luck perhaps another event right at the end of the month around Thursday or Friday (29th or 30th)

Yes - overlooked in my last post Sniper a thank you for organising that for whoever wins.. Hope I didn't sound ungrateful.

I notice there is a lot of concern surrounding the sudden change of pattern from zonal (more dominant in mid winter to early to mid spring) to meridional (more typical of late spring to mid autumn). I share some of the concern but I think we need to remember that we are in a transitional phase and it is perfectly normal to all of a sudden have a relatively dry week or two at this time of year. Model outputs can change rapidly so seeing a dry outlook doesn't necessarily mean it will stay that way. A front or low can pop up at any time. More encouraging is that there is still quite a bit of moisture around the interior of the continent and feeding into the state so it's not like previous springs where there were regular strong fronts and lows but the air mass to the N was so dry there was still no rain with them.

Anyway I missed the boat for this comp, but I still reckon Melbourne will get another 15-25mm for the month. Unfortunately parts of Melbourne have missed out on the bulk of the rain so far this month so are already at a deficit.

Looking like today is the day that we find out who the winner is with rainfall!!!

Hasn't it already been decided with official readings taken to 9am on the last day of the month? 21.8mm is the final result for Melbourne CBD

I think that is what I stated

floydlove wrote:Optimistic there Sniper. I don't have such a good feeling about October, 40mm but probably a lot less.

Do I win for saying that? 40mm - a lot less = 21.8mm.

Bit of a crazy month rainwise - below is an early dump of the rainfall totals.. The area around Lang Lang had around 100mm for the month. Most of the Dandenongs had between 80 and 120mm (the best was around Sherbrook/Kalistta) while near 100mm fell in the upper Yarra Valley. Very poor in the west - a few totals less than 20mm. The 14mm at Flemington, 16mm at Preston and 22mm at Melbourne strike me as among the poorest (compared to climatology).

96mm for us in Ferny Creek (from my gauge) - about 20mm below average - so not too bad.

When you drive around there is a huge difference in vegetation. Up here it's lush with puddles. By around Boronia things start to look dry with the nature strips just starting to yellow a little. By the city it's looking very dry with yellow/brown nature strips. Clearly need some decent rain soon.

086035 -37.700 145.150 35.4 ELTHAM
086036 -37.630 144.980 21.2 EPPING
086038 -37.730 144.910 27.4 ESSENDON AIRPORT
086039 -37.790 144.910 13.8 FLEMINGTON RACECOURSE
086066 -37.750 145.340 65.2 LILYDALE
086068 -37.740 145.100 27.2 VIEWBANK (ARPANSA)
086071 -37.810 144.970 21.8 MELBOURNE REGIONAL OFFICE
086074 -37.820 145.190 49.7 MITCHAM
086077 -37.980 145.100 59.0 MOORABBIN AIRPORT
086079 -38.240 145.070 45.6 MORNINGTON
086088 -37.910 145.090 28.3 OAKLEIGH (METROPOLITAN GOLF CLUB)
086090 -37.710 145.790 99.2 WARBURTON (O'SHANNASSY RESERVOIR (QUARTE
086095 -37.840 145.000 24.6 PRAHRAN (COMO HOUSE)
086096 -37.720 145.010 16.2 PRESTON RESERVOIR
086104 -37.870 145.260 59.4 SCORESBY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
086111 -37.940 145.180 38.1 SPRINGVALE NECROPOLIS
086117 -37.480 145.150 37.2 TOOROURRONG RESERVOIR (TOOROURRONG)
086119 -38.480 145.180 69.6 VENTNOR (OAKLANDS)
086127 -38.610 145.600 91.0 WONTHAGGI
086131 -37.560 145.130 28.4 YAN YEAN
086210 -38.070 145.130 42.6 BONBEACH (CARRUM)
086213 -38.380 144.900 36.0 ROSEBUD (COUNTRY CLUB)
086229 -37.740 145.530 56.0 HEALESVILLE (VALLEY VIEW FARM)
086234 -37.790 145.280 41.0 CROYDON (COUNCIL DEPOT)
086282 -37.670 144.830 19.6 MELBOURNE AIRPORT
086303 -37.890 145.190 61.8 GLEN WAVERLEY (GOLF COURSE)
086320 -37.720 145.410 49.8 COLDSTREAM COMPARISON
086351 -37.720 145.050 23.0 BUNDOORA (LATROBE UNIVERSITY)
086354 -38.510 145.150 67.9 PHILLIP ISLAND PENGUIN RESERVE
086359 -37.860 145.420 101.2 MONBULK (BULB FARM)
086361 -38.360 145.180 61.4 CERBERUS
086372 -37.880 145.340 86.2 FERNY CREEK (DUNNS HILL)
086373 -38.460 145.310 64.4 RHYLL
086374 -37.470 145.260 86.4 KINGLAKE WEST
086375 -38.130 145.260 69.3 CRANBOURNE BOTANIC GARDENS
086383 -37.720 145.410 49.8 COLDSTREAM
087006 -37.600 144.230 43.8 BALLAN
087009 -38.050 144.150 35.2 BANNOCKBURN
087016 -37.770 144.100 31.4 MOORABOOL RIVER AT MORRISONS
087017 -37.470 144.310 48.8 BLACKWOOD
087021 -37.820 144.210 41.6 DURDIDWARRAH
087029 -37.270 144.720 32.0 LANCEFIELD
087031 -37.860 144.760 33.8 LAVERTON RAAF
087042 -37.850 144.110 14.6 MEREDITH
087043 -37.820 144.150 42.4 MEREDITH (DARRA)
087061 -37.570 144.740 8.0 SUNBURY (SALESIAN COLLEGE )
087068 -37.650 144.040 40.8 MOORABOOL RIVER AT LAL LAL
087113 -38.030 144.480 22.8 AVALON AIRPORT
087131 -37.860 144.830 15.4 ALTONA (CITY OFFICES)
087135 -38.280 144.480 56.8 BARWON HEADS GOLF CLUB
087162 -38.140 144.190 37.6 GNARWARRE (BARWON RIVER AT POLLOCKSFORD)
087163 -38.220 144.330 26.2 GROVEDALE (GEELONG AIRPORT)
087168 -37.910 144.130 35.2 SHEOAKS
087169 -37.640 144.430 30.4 BACCHUS MARSH (GOLF CLUB)
087180 -38.160 144.560 29.6 CLIFTON SPRINGS

Congratulations to Scott Lawrance for being closest to the pin, not that it is a figure that any of us will be excited about.

Scott, please PM me when you are available to discuss prize details.

PS. You have a great business going up in Yea. Could be a venue for a AWF meeting and then storm chase around Yea and Kinglake!!

51.9mm here for the month but I record rainfall to the end of the last day of the month (always have done it that way) so I'll write in 55.9mm.

Actually did a bit better than surrounding localities here. The landscape is very green around the immediate vicinity of the Macedon Ranges, particularly the western half, Mount Macedon etc. with some very vigorous growth happening in gardens and of grass, probably the most vigorous growth I have seen in some years. The warm weather of the last few days has intensified this growth further. Out into the rain shadow though from around Clarkefield south things have dried out rapidly in the last week with green paddocks yellowing rapidly and starting to brown around the western suburbs.

Flemington is fast becoming a rival for driest place in Victoria. At least it ensures there will always be a firm track for our spring racing carnival so the European horses can't handle it. Eventually I can see the track at Flemington having to be replaced with gravel like at some tracks in the US.

Oh great Flemington racecourse is a 4 min walk from my house No wonder it is so dry here

Thanks Sniper. Have sent u a PM. Thanks also for the compliment again re our business www.ghinghin.com.au We do great olive oil, olives and food if I do say so myself!