Summer 2009/10 "Firsts"

Still no sign of any 30c+ yet and not for quite a while longer.. I wonder if we can have a similar Spring to 2001? Might be asking for abit to much but the Pacific was very similar to what it is now and the climate was also similar to now with much of the Eastern states in drought and a preety good spring down here interms of rainfall with ENSO in almost El Nino territory preety similar to now anyway we didn't pull our 1st 30c until 28th December that year I'm wondering if we may get a late 30c this year as well? I don't expect it that late but perhaps late October or even November

What about first 50? haha, at least some academic from Melb Uni thinks it's possible THIS summer...

Don't you just love these speculators? They're not friggin' experts.

Experience spawns expert opinions, not reading some papers in uni.

Here's the link: http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/forecaster-dennis-luke-warns-of-50c-days-in-victoria/story-e6frf7kx-1225782556851

What about first 50? haha, at least some academic from Melb Uni thinks it's possible THIS summer.

Denis has no known qualifications. As I understand he has a lawn mowing business. The Sunday Herald Sun runs him about every second week.

I suspect Ian Simmonds (my uni professor) was not given access to Denis's comments when he was interviewed so it's a cut and paste job. Still - suspect we will see a 50C in Melbourne in our life times (and certainly by 2050). If Black Saturday has come 3 weeks earlier it would have got to 49C and possibly 50C in northwest Vic, and Avalon etc would have got close to 49C.

I think we are close to seeing many southern locations get their first 30 degree day. Perhaps a in about 1-2 weeks.

Now that we are getting closer this becomes a little easier

First 30C- 19th October
First 35C- 16th November
First 40C- 4th January

I cant see 19th October being 30, seeing next Sunday, the 18th is going for 15, I would say more like 23rd or 24th

GFS has 15C+ 850T for Melbourne on the 20th (next Tuesday). That's what my prediction is based on but of course we are a long way out and it could easily downgrade or change. I'm pretty confident though with the setup we are seeing that this 30C plus day will come off somewhere around the 20th (I said 19th before but now 20th).

will be interesting to see what BOM puts as a forcast on Tuesday for the following Tuesday

Cannot see a 30C at all...

Depends whether you are looking at GFS or EC Karl. GFS is firm on a 30C+ day for next Tuesday or maybe Wednesday whereas EC rushes through a cold front on Tuesday and keeps the highs slow moving and over us after the series of fronts etc. move through by the end of the weekend.

Of course I'm only guessing but now that we are within model range you can speculate on a 30C day for next week. Not saying I really want one but it is late October we are talking about and a 30C+ day is not really out of the ordinary.

Nice guessing Andrew but I'm with EC as well can't see anything remotely close to 30c in Melbourne the next 8 days if it does happen will right at the end of the month

As I said the other day, in about 1-2 weeks there will be a 30 degree day IMO, for southern Vic.

Potentially the last week of October but more likely early November...

Certainly going to take a few days to recover from the cold.

Andrew I would like to say that I may be wrong in what I said. Looks like a 30C is possible Tuesday next week.

One to watch.

Hmm, I hope not. Would prefer the first 30C to come in late October or early November. Does the weather pattern seem to be warming up or staying cool-mild? ie next week and beyond..

Apart from Tuesday which Andrew might be closer than we think depending what EC throws up tonight the rest of the week next week looks cool to mild Floyd so if we do get some warmth or heat depends how one looks at it will only be a day or 2 at the most

yep I say 2 days of 'warmth' but then the cool may not be as cold as this week though afterwards. (one can hope!)

Ahh okay thanks John. BoM going for 27C on Tuesday, so it looks like it will be a warm one. I guess I can put up with one day of heat haha.

Good to hear the heat isn't coming on too strong too early.

Well, GFS is not holding back at all. Taking that particular model output at this stage (still a week out so a long way to go and plenty can change), we have roughly a 28C day on Tuesday and then Wednesday would be low 30s, possibly even as high as 33C if absolutely everything fell into line (no cloud, etc).

Of course I'm not going to be alarmist and say that the highest possible temp will come off but it is certainly a possibility at this stage. If we did get a 32C or 33C day on the 21st it would not be record breaking and not even that rare rarely. Check out the heatwave at the end of October 1990 and also October 1991 had a 32.5C day on the 5th and three further days above 31C after that.

Also in 1977 there were two very major heatwaves in October.

11th- 31.4C
12th- 30.4C
13th- 32.4C

and then

26th- 32.5C
27th- 33.0C
28th- 34.5C

So this sort of heat is not a long shot at all, particularly given that global warming is a factor these days of course. It goes without saying though that many of us would rather we don't have 30C days so hopefully BOM is right but the heat is certainly there ready to be dragged down. Good thing is it will definitely only be the one severe day and another very warm day so no extended hot spells.

Looks like some downgrades on next Monday / Tuesday. Perhaps we might not even reach 25 now.

Wait and see I guess.

Looks like Andrew (droughtbreaker) has come the closest with the 1st offical 30.0c+ day for Melbourne/city in the end around 10 days out

I cheated though, haha. I put my prediction in just a few weeks ago. My original guess was September 28th.

Seems fairly normal to have the first 30C around now but just looking at the heat that's building up it mightn't be that long before the first 35C. Could be in as little time as a week and a half of thereabouts.

The true winner of the competition is Tony (Norfolk). He predicted 20th October for the first 30C.

wow I won? what do I get? lol

Pride, Tony. And bragging rights.