Victoria: Early Spring Heatwave for southeast

What is a thundery shower? just a very weak storm?

DC, a thundery shower is just the BoM saying 'the chance of a shower or thunderstorm'.

Very warm here too, 25 degrees, a few cells have got together as expected over the west not long ago, expect more as the afternoon progresses. There is also a bit of convection occuring to my west now.

Yep or it could be interpreted as a small potential storm cell that didn't quite develop, sometimes contains small bursts of heavy rain, normally only isolated and lasts for around five minutes. Similar to what we had last Friday through certain parts (scattered thundery showers with a little bit of hail).

I would take the BOM's forecast for tonight with a grain of salt. They have had a lot of trouble forecasting storms this season.

There are little orange and yellow spots popping up on the 128km radar which signal convection is beginning to become more rife. Next couple of hours whilst temps are still up could be interesting.

What is most disturbing about this is that the conditions are now suitable for record heat every year. With normal climate variation, even taking into account global warming etc., we shouldn't be breaking early season heat records almost every year.

What has happened today is gobsmaking. We've broken the early season records by 3-5C. This comes on the January heatwaves which demolished southern Vic/Tasmania records, the Feb heatwaves which were previously unimaginable, the August heatwaves in QLD/NSW which..... well I've run out of superlatives . These events are far beyond 1 in 100 year events and they are coming one after the other. It is not exaggeration that at BoM we are having trouble explaining what we are seeing because it goes beyond even the most extreme global warming predictions.

This pattern better break soon or we are going to be in for a hell of a summer

On the flip side we now have 3 healthy rain events to look forwards to. Tomorrow looks like a 10mm event to me (and indeed the day will feel freezing), then another on (about) Thursday and then another next weekend.

102kph gust at Nhill Aerodrome at 5pm, and many gusts over 100kph at Mt William since 12pm.

I think windy conditions are in store for Melbourne tonight.

yes quite a change up in temps, along with bloody hayfever...far out, i reckon i've spread 1L of snot all the way through the market;(

Some sparks out west, will be keeping an eye on the western horizon tonight and might take a quick drive for a pulsie.
Today is a very Adelaide type of set up, welcome to my 27 years of my life;) Any sparks will be long and branchy,
along with a red/ warm appearance with the raised dust.

Will post if i decide to duck out later.

mick wrote: 25 in Melb on saturday? It will be 19 or 30, but not 25.

on Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:49 pm

Thankyouverymuch! Ill take 29.9 as a victory. Me 1, BOM, 0.

amazing 26.8 outside an thats the warmest its been all day gust northley wind atm very real chance of a little lightning this evening we have had 3 or 4 bursts of rain that were very stormy we can only hope! of to the pub for a few drinks on a nice warm night like this

Is now shaping up as an interesting 24 hours for the southeast. The trough to our west is sharpening up with a strong NW jet moving into Vic.

We should see a cloud band explode in the next 6-12 hours and start to produce moderate/heavy rain through western Vic by 10pm. This then slowly edges east to be into central areas in the early hours tomorrow.

It looks like the best rain will be just west and south of Melbourne at this stage, and that the band will weaken out as it goes into the east of the state. Expect about 10mm up here in Ferny Creek, though this has got the potential to drop 30mm depending on the details. Tomorrow should be 15C cooler - is going to be a shock.

BTW would be very surprised to see anything out of the thundery showers around ATM - the low levels are far too high. Will have to wait for the moisture air to move in overnight.

Still 22.5 degrees here a couple of quick bursts of rain but not even enough to wet the ground.

mick wrote:

mick wrote: 25 in Melb on saturday? It will be 19 or 30, but not 25.

on Wed Sep 09, 2009 5:49 pm

Thankyouverymuch! Ill take 29.9 as a victory. Me 1, BOM, 0.

Haha, nice one. Surprisingly it didn't feel that warm today. It wasn't cold but I thought I would be feeling it a lot more. Kind of scary though to just leave winter and be into the high 20's low 30's. At least the temperature will be pretty reasonable throughout the week. On to the rain tomorrow, hoping for at least 5mm.

Had a very interesting experience around 4:30pm when a heavy shower with large drops approached from the west back lit by the sun. It was fascinating watching the wall of rain coming towards here in real time. Pity the showers are so ridiculously isolated and brief. Looks like we'll have to stay up all night to see anything decent, I'm assuming most of the rain will fall overnight and early tomorrow morning.

Rain band starting to thicken up nicely back into SA so looks to be on track. Also looks like the initially westerly wind change has pushed through the west as far as Avalon.

BTW the FFDI is currently 60+ (ie extreme) at Melbourne Ap. Less than two weeks after winter and we are already facing our first extreme fire weather day in southern Vic

droughtbreaker wrote:Had a very interesting experience around 4:30pm when a heavy shower with large drops approached from the west back lit by the sun. It was fascinating watching the wall of rain coming towards here in real time. Pity the showers are so ridiculously isolated and brief. Looks like we'll have to stay up all night to see anything decent, I'm assuming most of the rain will fall overnight and early tomorrow morning.

We got that shower up the hill too DB, it was really odd, huge drops lots of them and except for a couple of fluffy white clouds the sky was completely blue and the brightest sun!

Still 27C!!!!! What????!!

Yeah, tell me about it. Moorabbin and Viewbank are the warmest places at the moment in Melbourne. It's like January and is very strange. Never seen this type of warmth at this time during Spring (in my lifetime anyway).

Anyone know where the wind change is and is there are good link that shows wind directions?

It's showing up on doppler radar now Tony. It's close to Werribee atm.

Spent the afternoon in Newport - was 12C when we left Trentham around 12pm and 27C when we got to Bacchus Marsh!!! Currently still 21C with the wind picking up......

Suddenly it's like winter never happened and we are back into a long summer. Very confusing.

We have made it down to 18.5 but it certainly feels like summer again give some incentive to finish tthose summer time he summer preparation and getting the hot tub working.

I wonder if it has even been 26.5c at midnight in September before.

Amazing night. Enjoying some cards with 6 blokes. It is almost sweltering outside. Sheer madness!!

It just dropped to 22 from 26 in Moorabbin in the last 5 minutes.

House is still fairly warm and muggy. It's been a very interesting year.

Can only hope for some mega rains in October - December.