Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Bout 34 here now too, very oppressive feeling out there now too. Good to see a few strike markers south of Nhill.

becoming unstable here, mammatus on the western horizon looks like some storms are begin to develop.

Lightning and dry grass don't mix so hope there's some rain in these storms, seem to be some decent strikes around and should only get worse as the day progresses.

Rhino.

A couple of nice cells near Ballarat. I think most of these storms are going to be fairly high based, which unfourtuantly means not muc rain unless your under a core really... THe nature of these storms are going to be very sporadic and pulsy as well. Not much fun for chasing, but if you get lucky enough to get one watch out for some crazy pulsating cg's and firestarters... Stay Safe everyone...


Upto 37C's here atm, warmer now than it was at this time of the day yesterday...

Karl Lijnders wrote:From 2pm Lily and continuing into the evening. Off and on tomorrow but nothing spectacular at this time.

... and I fly in from Newcastle at 2:30!!! - thanks for the head-up Karl.

Might have an interesting drive back to Maffra later this arvo! (I hope).

thunder an lightning here with a little burst of rain hopefully no fires started will know shortly. very warm til about 30min ago as cooled abit now with the West airflow

very windy and a few spits looks like a tidy cell inbound. Temp was around 35 now back down to 27. No thunder/lightning as yet.

Very hot outside, Will we see much lightning in the rain area that is making its way down to melbourne

BE WARNED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Massive Dust strom just came through bendigo, visability down to 10meters with wind gusts of at least 60-70kph. Check the bendigo AWS in about ten min for actual speeds...

rikjpool wrote:BE WARNED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Massive Dust strom just came through bendigo, visability down to 10meters with wind gusts of at least 60-70kph. Check the bendigo AWS in about ten min for actual speeds...

Yeah we got that massive blow through just before (epsom)....like a truck went through. Dust and stuff everywhere.....

We had high winds blow through here last night (not that they're an anomaly for this part of the state) and some rain with a little bit of thunder as well.

Peaked at 87kph here at the hight of that... and im 1km west of the bendigo AWS, and it looked to be hammering along over there...

Edit: Temp has dropped here 8 Degrees....

lots of dust in Flemington! WoW!!! Cooling down alot too!

Nice change about to head through Melbourne. Small temperature decrease in areas.

Windy and looks like some rain is approaching my place.

Couple of rumbles in the CBD, gusty rain but not much on the ground as yet.

It must be rough out there, tree down over truck in the hillcrest area 1 person trapped. We reached 38.6 here and are yet to get the change

Highest fall in SA has been 2mm so dont get too excited about rain

Yeah its still very dry out there have to wait for tonight for much of the rain to be hitting the ground, least tomorrow much of it will be reaching the ground.

Yeah was in shock that it got up to 38c across much of the city today but now much cooler at 23c and cloudy.

Had quite a bit of Thunder here but its SO dry that much of the rain is not hitting the ground same right across Vic and SA, might have to wait till tonight even tomorrow for the decent rain to start, seems such a waste as there a fair amount of rain around on radar.

Interesting 48 hours ahead looking forward to it

Starting to get steady light rain here. Cloud band is thickening up too.

00Z GFS still hanging in there with good rain totals, but mostly over western Vic. Meanwhile LAPs and MesoLAPs are the opposite... who to believe? Bureau think most of the rain will fall later tomorrow and continuing to midday Sunday. So suppose GFS might be right.

The middle level deck is starting to thicken and rise and hence rainfall slowly increasing over central areas. Personally I cannot see the rain easing at all from this point, it may be slow and steady with the occasional heavy burst with thunder but seriously, no easing in conditions.

No wind here presently, tending offshore ahead of the thundery rainband.

Tomorrow looks quite humid and if the rain does clear then there will be an increased risk of thunderstorms so a win win situation.

90kmh winds here this afternoon dropped the temp, 10C in less than 10 minutes with areas of dust and reduced visibility.

good steady rain here now!

Yes nice band of light rain just to moisten things up a bit for tomorrow....

Models are all sticking fat, with GFS going nuts again for tomorrow night. And the best news is that 00Z GFS gives us a bucketing Sunday and a repeat, almost identical set up for next Friday...the advantages of getting the warm air earlier...still cold to the south.

Agree Anth, a handy drop at the moment. 00z going ballistic for the coming week.
Now to patiently wait for EC.

MJO pulse is moving into the "zone" (phase 5 & 6):
http://cawcr.gov.au/bmrc/clfor/cfstaff/matw/maproom/RMM/phase.Last40days.gif

Plus with a warm Bass Strait, the next week or two looks decidedly "normal" for spring...

well the SCORE is on the Board...
1.5mm bringing the MONTH TOTAL to 3.00mm Yes 3 whole millimeters..
as if it would only jump as quickly as the temp did while I was typing Earlier today.
Fingers Crossed for what you guy give us hope for over the weekend.
21.9 deg C.