Lake Eildon

I have a vested interest in Lake Eildon and with the N/S pipeline to be in operation in the near future, I though it would be good to create a thread on Lake Eildon.

Here is extract from LakeEildon.com (thanks to Philp!!)

Eildon continues to rise, and in fact seems to have settled into its winter pattern of climbing steadily now. Current level is 12.61%, 0.21% higher than this time last week. We would expect to see rises every week now until at least September, and hopefully much, much later than that! At this point, the changes are still small, but a big rain event will see it start coming up in jumps of whole percentages.

The various indicies are mixed this week. Comparison with the All Time Average (ATA) is good - up 0.13% to 22.57%. Same with Last Five Year Average (L5A) which is up 0.06% to 74.25%. The lake gained 0.03% on last year's level to be 1.28% lower, but it lost ground on both 1983 and 2003 levels. Against 1983, it lost 0.74% to be 11.08% behind, and against 2003 levels it dropped 0.49% to be only 2.27% in front. When it's all been counted, this remains the third lowest level in the lake's history (only 2003 and 2007 were lower) as it has been since last September.

The physical lake level is starting to move more now as well. The level rose by 20 cm this week to be 36.73 metres below full. Still over 100 feet down, unfortunately!

Thanks again to Philp from LakeEildon.com!!

Well... sounding like a stuck record, let me say, Eildon is up, but it ain't spectacular. Current level is 12.79%, a rise of 0.18% on last week's result.

The indicies are also sluggish of course. Against ATA, it is up 0.06% to 22.63%. Against L5A it is down 0.48% to 73.77%. Compared to last year, the lake is 1.29% lower, up just 0.01%. Against 1983 levels, it is down 0.39% to 11.47%. And it is also down by 0.39% against 2003 levels to be just 1.88% higher.

The physical lake level rose by 17 cm to be 36.56 metres below full. The magic number of 30.48 metres - or 100 feet - is still a long way away.

The general trend of winter is that it will start off with a bunch of low rises like we have been having. So, to date, nothing unusual. Then what happens is we get a week or so of really wet weather and the figures dramatically jump. Then top up rains simply keep it rising by 1% a week or thereabouts. I am telling you this because for the last 10 months or so, this has been the 3rd lowest level in the lake's history, with only 2003 and 2007 lower. BUT, in 2007, the first big jump came in week 27 and 28. So, we will fall behind 2007 levels in the next two weeks unless there is significant rain. Then, in week 31 (5 weeks time), 2003 had a sustained week period that saw the lake rise enormously over a couple of months. If we didn't get any significant rain in the next 6 weeks, we would find ourselves in the position of 2009 being at a record all time low. This is (you might recall) exactly what happened last year in August, and while it quickly got back above a couple of the bad years, I am sure we don't want the lake to go there again.

So - we wait, and hope for the rains to come.

Thanks again to Philp from LakeEildon.com

Happy 54th Birthday to Lake Eildon, which started to collect water on 1st July 1955, which gives me a lovely 2,815 weeks worth of statistics to play with each time I go to my spreadsheet!

There have been plenty of happier times in the lake's history than this - but a wet year would certainly help to turn it around. Right now the lake sits at 13.04% - which is a rise of 0.25% since last week. If you ranked all the weeks in the lake's history from biggest rise to greatest drop, then this would be the 979th best result ever, but it is the first time in 2009 that a result has made it into the top 1000. It is the biggest rise of the year so far.

Indicies are mostly negative though, as Eildon ought to be rising much quicker than this. ATA is 22.68%, up by 0.05%. L5A is 71.75%, down by 2.02%. It is 1.35% lower than last year, down by 0.06%. It is 11.90% lower than 1983 levels, which is 0.43% lower, and it is only 1.44% ahead of 2003 levels, which is down by 0.44%.

The physical lake level is up to 36.33 metres below capacity, which is a rise of 23 cm

hanks for the work sniper. Always good to have a report from the field to know what's happening. The rain would have been OK around there this week eh? Might see some better flows over your way from it over the next few days. Was talking to a friend who was over near Benalla during the week and he reckoned that the river had bugger all in it when he got there but was very high by the time he left. Hopefully this can keep going and do some good.

We're heading up to the Lake this weekend. Am looking forward to hopefully a decent rise in the lake since last week. Also hoping the Models stay true with some decent falls over the weekend.

On a sad, but interesting note, I am travelling through the Black Spur/Narbethong/Buxton area for the first time since Black Saturday. Will have the kids on board, so I won't be taking a detour to Marysville. Will wait for spring. Will post photos on our return.

Have a good time Wes. I hope that it is a nice and somewhat wet weekend - I am sure it will be with that rain stacking up along the divide.

I am sure also that figures to come from the region will be showing some increase in flows with 50-150mm in the region over the last week. Dohertys and Jamieson had about 70-80mm out of the event. Very useful!!

Thanks Karl. Still tossing whether to head up tomorrow evening or sparrows Saturday morning. Fantastic report for Eildon this week thanks again to Philp from LakeEildon.com

And now for some really good news - Eildon is up by 1.36% to 14.40%. This is the biggest weekly rise in 99 weeks - you have to go back to 16th August 2007 to find a larger increase. Yay!

As a consequence, everything looks pretty good. The ATA is up to 24.54%, up by 1.86%. Against L5A, it is up by 3.09% to 74.84%. Compared to last year, the lake has risen by 0.75% to be just 0.60% lower. It lost ground against 1983 levels by 0.99% do be 12.89% lower, but it gained 0.93% against 2003 levels to be 2.37% higher. A very good result.

The physical lake level rose by 1.21 metres to be 35.12 metres below full. That is a rise of more than 17 cm per day, or around 7 inches.

The reason for all the positive news is that it has been raining, and raining well! The weather report seems to suggest there is more to come - let's hope it keeps raining, because right now things are wet and rain means runoff means increases in storage levels.

Great news! More rain please, but this is a strong step in the right direction!

Further to the previous post, inflows for today were 3800ML with outflows at 130ML.

And with rain and isolated thunderstorms continuing on the northern slopes descending throughout tonight and further showers over the coming 72hrs I think we could see those inflows increase quite a lot.

Suspect 20-30mm throughout in the next day or two.

Thanks again to Philp @ LakeEildon.com.

Eildon is up again, by 0.86% to a new level of 15.26%. This of course is not as good as last week, but still a solid rise for winter.

I am struggling a bit with some of the indicies because I don't have the full spreadsheet here, but in any case, we can say that we have gained on last year's level to be only 0.54% lower, and gained on 2003 levels to be 2.73% higher. At the same time in 1983, the lake was 28.84% - which is 13.58% higher. The All Time Average prior to this result was 60.59%, so our current level is around 25.2% of that. The Five Year Average was 21.28%, so it is at around 71.7% of that average. These figures will be slightly out because the current result moves the overall averages as well - but it give you an idea...

Physical lake level is higher by 73 cm to be 34.39 metres below full.

This is very interesting. Just an historical note - my parents alwys say that they remember Lake Eildon filling in the first year it was built in 1956 it was such a wet year. My - how times have changed and I wonder if we will see years like that again.

Unlikely to see the Lake full again Scott, especially with the water allocations to farmers who use the Goulburn. I don't want to preempt tomorrow' Weekly report on the lake level, however it will be at a record low for this time of year. And given we are half way through "filling" season, I will be expecting the level to drop to around 5-7% if rainfall trends remain the same or worsen.

However Brumby, kept building that pipe son!!

The wretched pipeline! My sister is Jan Beer who has fought tooth and nail to stop it and it still is ploughing on regardless. Driving the Melba Highway is the most upsetting experience seeing the wholesale destruction of the landscape not to mention the irreversible damage to our water system when it is up and going. It is the ill conceived project none to man in my opinion which flies against all reason.

A comment piece from Philp (forum contributor/leader) at LakeEildon.com

Eildon is in a terrible mess. Not only Eildon, but virtually all water storages in country Victoria - especially those north of the Great Divide... but this does not make it any easier or better. Eildon is in strife.

For almost 8 years now I have been writing a regular report on this web site about the level of the lake. I do this based on weekly statistics that reach back to the day the gates were opened on the old Sugarloaf Dam and Lake Eildon as we now know it began to form - that was July 1955. So - I have at my disposal several thousand observations of the lake over 55 years. And my summation of things is - Eildon is in trouble.

For some time I have been looking at the 50% line: that is the shore line when Eildon is at exactly half of its capacity. For the record - that line is 273.2 metres above sea level, and when the lake shore is on that line, it is 15.6 metres below full. That's a long way down! Anyway, as of this week, it has been 448 weeks since Eildon has been at that level. Yes - it was the 26th December 2000 that we last saw Eildon with 50% of capacity or more. This is such a long time that a glance at Eildon now sees a new shoreline forming. In most places, you can still see the full line - the end of the trees and often a small waterline from where a full lake has lapped... but it is disappearing. Now, there is a new shoreline significantly lower down forming, with vegetation taking a significant hold of the banks well down towards the 50% mark. It has been years since these banks have been inundated, so vegetation has happily formed well below the full mark. The conclusion is that 50% is almost like the new "full mark". Forget about seeing Eildon full again - just hope that one day you will see it at 50%.

But wait - there is worse. With the lake still down at 16 and a bit percent despite winter being 2/3 over, we have to start wondering whether the lake is going to make it past 25%. Forget about half full - will it even make it to one quarter full? If it does not make it, then this will be the fourth winter in a row that it did not reach 25%. In fact - a look at the records says that Eildon fell below 25% on 30th March 2006, and has not been back above that level since. That is no less than 174 weeks - approaching 3 and a half years.

I need to give you some more history to bring this into sharper focus. At the start of July, the big dam was formed and Eildon started to fill. It took just 7 weeks (can you believe - it was a very wet winter) to pass 25%, doing so on 19th August 1955. After that, it stayed above 25% year in year out, for the next 28 years. The next time it dropped below 25% was on 3rd March 1983 after an exceptionally dry summer. It remained below 25% for 19 weeks, before the winter rainfall again began to refill the lake. After that, it again remained above 25% until 4th April 1999.

Now that date turned out to be quite significant; in 2,281 weeks up until that date, Eildon had only been below 25% for 19 weeks - which makes 0.83% of the time. Since that date, in 538 weeks, Eildon has been below 25% for no less than 311 weeks - that is 57.8% of the time. Unbelievable! And of course, now the lake has been below 25% for 174 weeks, a figure that will rise to well over 220 at least if we don't get above 25% this winter...

The bottom line - maybe 25% is becoming the new "full" for Eildon. That's a mark 27.8 metres below the full capacity line - in some places 12 kilometres from the original full line.

What does this mean? It has several impacts. Firstly - policy makers (I mean State Government mostly) need to stop thinking of Eildon as the untapped resource that they apparently think it is. In 2006 - we gave away around 15% of the lake's capacity to the lower Murray. 15% we didn't have to spare and despite the weekly protests on this web site and in direct petition to government and water authority - fell on deaf ears. We have set up Eildon to feed water to Bendigo and Ballarat. Talk is Geelong will happen shortly, and they are building a pipeline to Melbourne. All this additional demand - based on Eildon having plenty of water. But Eildon is only 1/4 of the lake it used to be - and its time it was recognised as such.

Secondly, I have a tendancy to forget (and I don't think I am the only one) who this lake was primarily built for... and that is the farmers who grow our fruit and vegetables in the Goulburn Valley. Shepparton and surrounding districts are a significant agricultural contributor to Australia's food supplies. Consumers - that's all of us actually - depend on their crops. Particularly for stone fruits, but not only. And what has happened? Year after year, these guys have not got their full water allocation. In recent years, around 25% has become a figure they are well aquainted with - as this has been around how much of their water right they actually get. This coming summer, unless there is a lot of rain shortly, they won't even get that. Their allocation is so low that many have simply ripped out their trees - it's too tough. Those who battle on have had to use their water to keep the trees alive but they cannot expect a decent crop with so little supply. The industry is in dire times. And that is not only an issue of the livelihood of some farmers somewhere - this is an issue that affects what goes on our tables for dinner each day, and how much we are going to pay for it. We are all in this together...

Thirdly, from a recreational use perspective (and we have come to realise how secondary this use is regarded in recent years), towns and facilities on the arms of the lake are dead. At 25%, Bonnie Doon, Howqua and Mansfield's lakeside community simply have no lake. The lake is the reason those towns are there. Effectively that means they are dead. Another ring of settlements - Gough's Bay and Peppin Point for example - are pretty limited at 25%. Sure - the lake still has plenty of water for recreation, and if you access it from Eildon or Jerusalem Bay, you can still enjoy it. But it is limited. The old claims about "always being able to find your own little inlet to pull into" are lost because there is a lot less lake and therefore a lot less such inlets.

Eildon is in strife. It's time to recognise it for what it is. Even if the lake makes it above 25% one day, it would seem almost impossible for it to make it above 50% again, and it will certainly never be full again. It no longer has heaps of water to spare - not for irrigation, or for drinking, or even for playing. It's not the lake it was. It can still be good - but not what it was, and it may never be again.

Alarming!!!!!

Better get there while there is water in it!!!!

Thanks again to Philp from LakeEildon.com

Another steady rise, but Eildon remains at record low levels. Overnight it was at 18.03%, a rise of 0.71% in the week. This is only 41.1% of the usual rise for this time of year. It is the third consecutive week of being the lowest level ever.

Indicies are a bit mixed - ATA is up by 0.38% to 27.25%, L5A is up by 0.27% to 78.43%. The lake gained 0.02% on last year's level to be 1.23% lower. But it lost 0.69% on 1983 levels to be 16.87% lower, and 2.35% on 2003 levels to be 0.88% lower.

The physical lake level was up by 54 cm in the week to be 32.21 metres below full.

Unfortunately, this record low will continue for a few more weeks yet unless there is a severe storm dropping a lot of rain really soon! The year to watch is 2006: the current level is 5.29% higher than the 2006 level of 23.32%, but that was as high as the lake got in 2006. Week by week it dropped, and if our results keep rising for a few more weeks, we will soon find ourselves ahead of that level. Anyway - let's hope so, because that 2006 level was on its way down to the all time record low of 5.31% and we don't want to go back there!

Good to see that the Libs, Nationals and Greens passing a disallowance motion against the North-South pipeline. The motion was to allow 75 billion litres of water be "looted" from Eildon.

14mm overnight, 21mm for the week to 9am Tuesday. Looking forward to seeing the level reach 20% in the next few days.

Current inflow is 5600mg, outflow is 130mg.
Fill you bastard!!!

30mm for the week ending Monday 31/08. We recorded 12mm over this weekend at Taylor bay which was handy, but was hoping more!!

August rainfall was similar to August 2008 with around 75mm of rain recorded. Inflows are very good at the moment but we (like the whole state) need a wet September/October.