Summer 2009/10 "Firsts"

Ok Guys, When do you think in your area you will have your first:

<30c Day
<35c Day
<40c Day

Mine tips below:

<30c Day October 3
<35c Day December 22
<40c Day January 15

Jase

30c October 5th
35c November 12th
40c December 17th

30c - September 23rd
35c - October 17th
40c - December 3rd

30c - September 30th
35c - October 18th
40c - December 1st

Thought I would add...

Christmas Eve: Partly cloudy with the chance of a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Sultry. Max 32

Christmas Day: Cloud increasing and becoming windy ahead of a fresh to strong and gusty southwesterly change late in the day. A few showers and a possible thunderstorm ahead and with the change. Max 35

New Years Eve: Hot and sunny at first, though cloud increasing later in the day ahead of a change developing at night. A windy day and a shower or thunderstorm developing on the change. Max 36

New Years Day: A clearing shower. Cooler with southwest to southerly winds. Max 24

30C - September 20
35C - October 15
40C - December 12

Christmas: 34C
New Years Eve: 26C

For Melbourne;

30C- 28th September
35C- 28th October
40C- 15th December
45C- 25th January

What about the first 20c+?? Left that out Jase

September 11th for me.

Don't think we will get 45c day again this Summer in Melbourne Andrew just cos we had it one year doesn't mean will happen year after year now also El Ninos tend have a history of Summers becoming wetter more cloud and more humid with NE wind patterns Jan and Feb so going by that it would make it hard for that 45c to happen infact wouldn't suprise me if we didn't even get a 40c day I believe 2007 was that way we didn't see a 40c in Jan nor Feb coming out of the 06/07 El Nino.

First 20c........ Sept 19
First 30c.........Oct 20
First 35c.........Nov 27
First 40c.........Jan 26(one and only 40c day)

Christmas Eve: mild, dry and sunny with fresh afternoon seabreezes 24c
Christmas Day: mild dry and sunny with seabreezes....much warmer inland, 25c city, up to low 30's in the Yarra Valley

New Years Eve: cloudy and humid with the chance of an afternoon storm.......28c
New years day: cloudy and humid with the chance of an afternoon storm.......27c

Johnno wrote:What about the first 20c+?? Left that out Jase

September 11th for me.

Don't think we will get 45c day again this Summer in Melbourne Andrew just cos we had it one year doesn't mean will happen year after year now also El Ninos tend have a history of Summers becoming wetter more cloud and more humid with NE wind patterns Jan and Feb so going by that it would make it hard for that 45c to happen infact wouldn't suprise me if we didn't even get a 40c day I believe 2007 was that way we didn't see a 40c in Jan nor Feb coming out of the 06/07 El Nino.

Yeah I was being a bit stupid there.

That would be fantastic if we could have a humid, stormy summer with no days above 40C. We are due for one. El Nino setups do have a history of this sort of weather I agree.

Of course if spring continues wet along the ranges and hills and we have a predominance of easterly wind setups and troughs through summer with humid and milder weather with rain/storms at times the bushfire season will end up a very benign one. Here's hoping.

norfolk wrote:First 20c........ Sept 19
First 30c.........Oct 20
First 35c.........Nov 27
First 40c.........Jan 26(one and only 40c day)

Christmas Eve: mild, dry and sunny with fresh afternoon seabreezes 24c
Christmas Day: mild dry and sunny with seabreezes....much warmer inland, 25c city, up to low 30's in the Yarra Valley

New Years Eve: cloudy and humid with the chance of an afternoon storm.......28c
New years day: cloudy and humid with the chance of an afternoon storm.......27c

Sounds good, nice and normal for a change if your forecast comes off Tony.

yeah I just have a feeling that the summer may be on the 'normal' side. Not that hot at all, with lots of heat actually hitting NSW and QLD!

Melbourne got to 19.7c today according to the obs! I guess that makes it close to the first 20c day but not quite!

Yeah very close but sill no cigar haven't had a 20c+ day yet have the feeling its coming though if not tomorrow sometime later next week

I don't think it will be tomorrow, wind and cloud and rain (or at least showers) will stop it. Still think it won't happen for a few weeks yet.

20 - Tomorrow 35% chance, or 12th September (bit less chance haha)...

30 - 12th October

35 - 27th November

40 - 11th January

45 - 28th January (roughly 20% chance we will have a day 45 or above for the whole summer)

Max temp for summer 41.8 - 9th February

I think we will have 3 days over 40.

Christmas Day - 27 degrees, partly cloudy, light W/NW wind, chance of a late shower or storm

NYE - 33 degrees, fine, moderate W/NW wind

You will be surprised Norf

That cloud will clear through, it will be generally mid level and cover about 5/8s of the sky during tomorrow. This is what will help thunderstorm potential.

I am tipping 22C tomorrow.

Well it's official! Melbourne reached 20.6c at 11:08am this morning! Still a good chance it's going to get a bit warmer this afternoon too!

And there it goes... 1st 20c of the season September 3rd 2009. 22c is on track may even scratch 23c.

Ok you got it Karl! and anyone else who voted for above 20 today! Looks like I may have to re adjust my predictions!

Jase72 wrote:Ok Guys, When do you think in your area you will have your first:

Mine tips below:

<30c Day October 3
<35c Day December 22
<40c Day January 15

Jase

Well my first 30C day was Saturday, so September 12.

Jase

Looks like I got closest with an 8 day margin.

Nice going. Well don't know about you guys but I'm still going to go with the offical BOM temp from the CBD site otherwise it will get abit confusing if we all go by our suburbs sites or at home so going by that It still hasn't reached offically 30c in my book so its still out for grabs

Johnno wrote:Nice going. Well don't know about you guys but I'm still going to go with the offical BOM temp from the CBD site otherwise it will get abit confusing if we all go by our suburbs sites or at home so going by that It still hasn't reached offically 30c in my book so its still out for grabs

Yeah that is ok hehehe. i was going by my weather station

Well I heard the BoM on the radio a few times already refer to Saturday as the first 30C but really it is semantics

Ah well least we won't have to worry about it for a while now thank God!!!

Still waiting for our first 30c+ day in Melbourne/CBD and doesn't look like coming for quite a while yet may take another 10 days (minimum) before we even come close