Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

I could help you with that forecast Norfolk, and it starts with F..... and no it's not Fizzer...

Models are all looking great today, big upgrade from yesterday. This time yesterday I was very doubtful, but it has really firmed as a it has gotten closer for once.

Be great for the NW to get a decent drink. Or is it already too late??

Thats exactly whats going to happen DJ..so be prepared for some whinging this time tomorrow..

Hopefully still gives the catchments a good drink if nothing else.

havent seen the radar in SA look like that in , well ever! good coverage of the whole south of the state which imo is better than localised downpurs (unless your under them)

shold wake to a ratgher damp morning and rain on the roof - night all

Just wish GovCo would actually build another dam in the south west as well as near the Mitchell in Gippsland. They'd be full now if built a few years ago.

Looks to be breaking up as it comes across again Why can't one of these bloody things deliver for once! It even worse when they get so close

Still sultry outside, no rain yet

warm out with light to v light rain for the last hour radar seems to be overstating what is actually falling on the ground atm

Looking very ordinary to me and has fizzer written all over it for central districts. This time it looks like there is some decent rain around the west of the state so it is there but as others have mentioned there are very firm indications the rain will weaken right out overnight just before making it to central areas and then redevelop on the eastern ranges tomorrow leaving us with only a few mm around central areas. It is becoming an all too familiar pattern where you go to bed hoping to wake up to rain and dampness and then get that sinking feeling in the stomach when everything is still bone dry and just a few spits around.

Ranges might help out a bit locally but it looks pretty abysmal to me, dry low levels winning out again. Very irritating considering it was only 23C today compared to the 30C ahead of the last system but still so much of the rain is virga or light rain.

Luckily we still have a big area of unstable weather to come through after the weekend with more chances of good rain so as frustrating as this all is we still have hope.

Getting a few spits here now so radar not going too bad hope a lot more to come

Looking ok today for a decent drink for much of the state...rain is slow moving so 10mm should be achievable nearly everywhere. Quite surprised actually that it's maintaned it shape and intensity so far..

I expect only a few mm today with the northerly freshening in time to keep Melbourne mostly dry.

1-5mm across the city at best.

Scoresby Max 16. current temp 17.2c @6.15am. woke to 15.4 c@ 4.45am

Might actually be OK here just looking at the radar atm. It looked abysmal last night and sure enough the ground is barely wet here this morning but I notice the models were never keen for the rain to start in central areas until this morning.

Looking at the sky it looks too dry down here. No mid level cloud to speak of and plenty of virga..

I hope the optimism comes to something more than words

wouldn't rule anything out yet....but I just have a feeling we will miss out...especially here in western Melbourne

I wonder what people will say if we get less than 1mm of rain?

Got 1.5mm already so. Not sure why the other gauges around me show ~0mm as it was certainly raining steadily when I got up.

This system will deliver (almost) 100% sure. The upper trough is very sharp and the system is slow moving. The winds are not too strong in the mid levels and it will be slow to clear.

EC has ~15-20mm for Melbourne today with rain become rather heavy from mid morning and last well into the evening. The wind change does not happen to ~8pm so this system (at the suface) has another 14 hours to cross us - see http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Mount_Dandenong/hour_by_hour.html .

I'm sticking to 20mm for Ferny Creek - depending on how moist the SW flow is post trough and how much drizzle this give it could end up in the range of 30-40mm.

PS best fall so far looks like the best falls so far are Dartmoor with 15mm and Portland/Stawell with 14mm. It is still rain so these places will soon be on 20mm

hillybilly wrote:

I wonder what people will say if we get less than 1mm of rain?

Got 1.5mm already so.

Its Dry at the bottom of your hill. ~0mm here.

Never seen 100% sure from you DJ.. Must be good...

Hope inland areas keep getting the rain, very useful and productive after the heat.

light and steady rain from about 9pm last night and in the last few hours the rain has kicked up to a moderate steady rate and the radar is looking really good 6.6mm with plenty to come

Only really started raining about 4am here. Been nice consistant rain since then and now getting solid rain that you can hear over the TV. 5.5mm here so far. While not a complete flop, still pretty crap considering how much cloud passed over with nothing. Looks like a lot or rain was virga. Now maybe this could be a positive sign for coming events as moisture seems to be coming back into the centre. Hope the next one dumps down.

Still sitting in the hole and not looking positive for Melbourne. 4mm to the south and 6mm to the west.

EC said rain coming in mid morning hmmmmm

What doesn't gel with me DJ is the fact EC has a windhcnage at 8pm? Which to me means Northerlies til 8pm I would assume regardless if its strong or not strong now the fact it has 15-20mm for Melbourne in Northerlies all day doesn't make sense to me seems alot of rain in Northerly winds so it either has the timeing of the change wrong and it will come earlier the SSW wind change or its wayy overestimating rain for Melbourne again.

Don't forget the "almost" on the 100%

Just starting to rain in the city and the rain is thickening up nicely north of us - a northerly trajectory is usually pretty good for the eastern burbs as there is much less topography blocking the rain than if it comes from the NW (and also means stronger upslide).

Stawell is now up to 19.4mm . Fingers crossed it keeps going and puts some more water into the dams/creeks.

BTW next week is looking a ripper - both GFS and EC have widespread 25-50mm falls with a series of strong fronts.

What doesn't gel with me DJ...

Johnno northerlies can be very productive for Melbourne - but northwesterlies/westnorthwesterlies often fizz. It is partly due to the topography - things tend to survive the passage over the ranges north of the city better than over the ranges to the northwest (where the ranges are higher and much wider). Also northerlies usually mean strong warm air advection (or "upslide") so that the dynamics of the system is more important for rainfall that the topography. Once the flow goes more westerly it usually means weaker upslide/warm air advection and that topography is playing a larger part in the rainfall.

That doesn't mean that topography will play no role today - it almost certainly will - but it means things shouldn't be as bad as in some of the more recent events.

Well it's looking far to light to the north and west with no mid level cloud. Building better to the south. The rain to me is not thickening to the north but more to the south.

I cannot see what everyone else is seeing.

I think my hayfever is affecting me badly - I think I need to stop looking at the radar and talking about weather today...