Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

EC looks terrible for next week but has been chopping and changing so theres still hope it wont be as bad as tonight.

Andrew the seabreeze caame in Midday today in Melbourne but the atmosphere was just so hot not even the seabreeze cooled it down infact the temp continued to go up throughout the afternoon in the city and suburbs which is a rare thing given the wind was from the South.

Thanks Tony! Preety much as I remembered it... Just wondering where you found that information? Got a link?

Johnno wrote:EC looks terrible for next week but has been chopping and changing so theres still hope it wont be as bad as tonight.

What are they forecasting temperature wise?

This is where I get all my historical Data from

http://www.australianweathernews.com/recent_AWN_daydataArchive_element.html

I should also point out that click onto an area you are looking for (Melb is 86) then just look for what you want!

hope it helps!

Interesting Tony thanks for that

Yeah, EC shifting back quickly to very hot temps mid-late next week, back in the high 30's perhaps 40's again for much of the state. Lets hope it does change John!

Andrew, have you received my PM?

hillybilly wrote:Looks like EC has now killed the weekends front and bring even hotter conditions early/mid next week - there is no significant break until (at least) the end of next week.

Welcome to hell

Just wondering what model run you are referring to there David and how often does EC come out because on the 00z run the front comes through on Saturday and then we have northerlies again the following week which would see very high temps, but it certainly had the front for the weekend and it seemed a fairly decent one at least in terms of the southerlies behind it. The yr.no (Norwegian site) that is 100% EC from what I've been told, has 17C for Melbourne on Sunday. Isn't the next run 06z? and still to come out.

Just a little confused.

That temp is taken at 10am... So that is not the daily high. Looks very hot right through!!!

Just dropping in to say thank you to everyone for the great conversation this evening, great reading (just wish I had something worthwhile to add ). And thank you to Norfolk for the link to the historical data - it's really interesting, you should post the link in the Weather Links section

Looks like the break may come on Monday, looking at various forecasts. The cicadas were going nuts tonight. Welcome to an early Summer!

Well Latest GFS has mad temps for VIC Mid to late next week as well now.... Somthing aint right with all this

I heard the cicadas too!!! Mainly coming from the flowering silky oaks. 24C here.

Should be 36C tomorrow now.

Am I looking wrong or does GFS have Sunday up around 40-41 for Melbourne?

We've had the mole crickets here on dusk, very loud.

Latest GFS (06z run) has the ridiculously hot day this Sunday still as the change is delayed until Sunday night with 40C temps possible in Melbourne, after that though there is a significant change with much cooler air coming in, 850T down to around 5C on Monday and then it looks like there will be another day or two of intense heat but then another change coming in and then possibly back to normal patterns after that. Still, it is just one run but at least things are getting more complex and patterns shifting a little.

This month is basically November 1982 on steroids. It's what happens when you combine climate change with intense el nino conditions at this time of year. At least December 1982 was a cool one with a major rain event chucked in so hopefully the same thing will happen as the relationship between El Nino and our climate traditionally breaks down.

BTW- 40C can be easily reached at this time of year if you combine global warming/climate change with severe El Nino. 1997 and 1982 are two very noteworthy years where episodes of extreme heat was experienced in November.

I think the Norweidgan site Andrew the temps there is an average of the Max and Min put together hence why it tends to always be lower (by about 5-7c) of the max temp and if you also notice when it forecasted temps for Coldsnaps it usually goes for 7-8c when BOM go for 13c so I have figured its an average temp of the 24 hours rather than the Max. Which would mean Sunday be showing 23-24c EC for the forecast Max..

I am not ready for this heat, currently 26 here

Johnno wrote:I think the Norweidgan site Andrew the temps there is an average of the Max and Min put together hence why it tends to always be lower (by about 5-7c) of the max temp and if you also notice when it forecasted temps for Coldsnaps it usually goes for 7-8c when BOM go for 13c so I have figured its an average temp of the 24 hours rather than the Max. Which would mean Sunday be showing 23-24c EC for the forecast Max..

Yeah, I noticed the same thing. It's a bit of a weird setup on that site, really good site but a bit weird in parts. Going into the 3 hourly though it gives the right temps, going for 31C for the next few days here which sounds right.

The main difference between the current heatwave and our classic NW wind heatwaves is that it cools down inland overnight as the SE 'seabreeze change' comes through. 17.8C here atm which is 10C cooler than the city (classic UHI effect there) and around 7C cooler than the airport. The SE component of the breeze seems to have a big effect here and cools things down heaps maybe because it is coming express off the bay and doesn't have to cross much land before it reaches here.

Well I'm in the worst part of Melb for rain and now temp.. As we speak I'm in the warmest area of Melb at the moment as Essnedon Apt sits on 26c and City sits on 27.7c and I am right inbetween these 2 so 26-27c is a safe bet here at the moment still warm and rather muggy but if you notice other areas of Melbourne temp has fallen rapidily... Avalon down to 19c, Geelong airport 16c! Ceberus 18c, Moorabbin apt 22c, Ryhll, Coldstream & Laverton all on 21c so rather comfortable but here just NW of the city seems to be hanging around 26-27c

Thanks for the link by the way Tony

Still feels like 30c outside in Moorabbin.

no probs John...yea I was just noticing by the looks of it a SW has come through, down to 22 here atm, which is actually quite nice

Mount D hasn't dipped under 22c all night.
Easy 35+ today, tomorrow not looks as cool as forecast, Thursday into Friday looking more likely for conditions to ease somewhat. I'm not sold on Sunday being 40. Appears to me the change will past through around noon and brings some cooler weather Monday.

Just remember that 40C can be achieved by noon in these conditions like what is forecast for Sunday.

Better southeast winds this afternoon.

EC looks terrible for next week but has been chopping and changing so theres still hope it wont be as bad as tonight.

Thankfully the latest EC is looking cooler for the south, but has no respite for the north. It also brings Saturday's front through in good time (looks like being through central areas middle of the day) so much cooler for Sunday.

I can't see today being as hot as yesterday. We are about to go into synoptic southerlies/southeasterlies which will strengthen during the day. These stay with us for a couple of days (though the north will bake).

BTW a bit of mid level moisture starting to move in so should be some high based convection today.

I think today will be as hot as yesterday guys in Melbourne until we see the winds turn Southerly/SSW or SSE at South Channel Island then I expect no effect on the temps. The Port Phillip bay seabreeze alone is having no effect on us past couple of days so if winds are out of the ENE at South Channel Island and Southerly at Fawkner Beacon it means that we are having the Port Phillip bay Seabreeze so until we see A southerly/SSE/SSW at South Channel Island (Bass straight seabreezes or cooler change) then expect more of the same guys temps for us. To have a cooler day we need Southerlies at South Channel island by Midday/1pm to work up the bay reinforcing the Port Phillp bay Seabreeze by Mid afternoon, if winds are not southerly at South Channel Island by 3pm then I expect another 35c day fairly easy across Melbourne.

Already 30c here at 930am which is really 830am scarey stuff.

Avalon has dropped 3 degrees? What could that mean? Nothing perhaps seeing Geelong is up to 31! Don't normally see Geelong about 6 degrees warmer than Avalon, do we?

Yeah mixed messages Tony hovering around 25c in Avalon due to the bay breeze which is a glimour of hope but 31c in Geelong with East wind.

33c already here and Essendon airport and climbing with no seabreeze still south of me.