Victoria: Heatwave November 7th-12th 2009

Johnno wrote:Yeah mixed messages Tony hovering around 25c in Avalon due to the bay breeze which is a glimour of hope but 31c in Geelong with East wind.

33c already here and Essendon airport and climbing with no seabreeze still south of me.

Actually now I see Moorabbin has cooled a bit, is it possible this breeze will make it up here? Or wishful thinking?

Moorabin did cool then went up again 1 degree on a ssw wind, I think its on its way to 30 down here now

Yeah Watto, I've have noticed though Frankston is 2-3c lower than this time yesterday morning in the same set up so there are other minor factors playing part here still NE winds at South Channel Island though.

And if this means anything...laverton is now under the 30 degree mark. 33 here as well atm though

Unlike the past 2 days looks like the Port Phillip bay seabreeze has slightly more substance today and has knocked off 2-3c when it comes through but will expect the temp to slowly climb again until we get the Bass Straight seabreeze (SW,S or SE winds at South Channel Island)

34c already here and Essendon airport and its barely 10am real time!

EDIT: I think I will go 1 better Karl I think theres some chance of seeing 36 or 37c across some of the Northern and North eastern suburbs today

The outer east and north will see 33-35C today and temps should plateau nearer the bay.

Look for some local convection later.

Karl Lijnders wrote:The outer east and north will see 33-35C today and temps should plateau nearer the bay.

Look for some local convection later.

I tend to think we may see 36/37 today in our little section of the west, where we are not being effected by any bay breeze and we are not elevated as high as the airport or places like Sunbury and Gisborne.

I have 34.4 here already....I am sure I will see a few more degrees and see it peak at about 37. Not good though as I am about to head out to attend a funeral and this heat will not go well for a lot of the elderly people that will be there.

Oh Ok Tony I remember you saying this the other day thought it was late in the afternoon if it was would probably been better for you & the elderly people interms of weatherwise as I expect some moderationg of the temp out your way by then

I went to a funeral in January 2008 and it was around 40c. Not fun when you're wearing a suit or for the relatives and friends, but keep an eye out on the elderly.

Just going through some forecasts now and even Monday's temperature prediction for Melbourne has gone up from around 20 to 28. Truly hope the break is actually coming by a week's time.

light seabreeze an hour ago go the temp to 25 winds are light still but from the east so temp climbing to over 28 now im right on the coast and little if any seabreeze so all areas may not get a seabreeze were all hoping for again by the looks.

35 here without a northerly wind. Scary!!!

Yeah preety much gone as I thought today same temps again no southerly yet at South Channel island Port Phillip bay seabreezes alone not holding the temp back and still climbing gradually. May still get a tad higher than yesterday in the City.

dropped from 36.8 @ 1.06 to 36.5 on my WS.

Wind coming from the SE here but temp is still rising, now 32.4c may beat yesterdays 33.1c.

Looks like the more humid southerly is mixing in but still darn hot out there. 35C ATM in the city.

Certainly a bit hotter than I was expecting to see (had thought more like 33C today).

Latest LAPS suggests both Wed/Thur should get to 30C in Melbourne putting us on target for the record 6 days above 30C record.

Car temp gauge is reading 41c here at Doncaster! It feels it to be honest!

Yeah 35c in city no real surprise same as yesterday,
34c here today with light SE winds last 2 hours but doing nothing to cool us down everything is baked so wont cool down till after sun down really.

I see tomorrow been over 30c in the City Thursday it may struggle, but then back above 30c Fri Sat and Sun before dropping below Monday and back above Tues Though Fri next week CRAZY pattern and forecast for November

Many towns and even the state will have mean maxs 5-7c above Avg by Nov 20th with only 10 days to go and last last 10 days good chance they be well into the 20s also

Record breaking month is possibly on the cards for the wrong reasons

See no rain right though to the 20th and even possibly beyond 20mm for month might be a stretch. but was looking like a real dry month about 10 days ago

Spare a thought for many inland folk who haven't had good rain in close to 2 months and with all this heat and last few weeks not looking good, lucky many are close to harvesting.

Many towns have also dropped water restrictions to lower levels like stage one or 2 instead of 4
STUPID in my eyes hopefully they get lifted again soon

The first record of many - Melbourne has experienced four consecutive 32+ days in November for the first time. Remarkably there had been runs of three consecutive 32s on no fewer than 15 previous occasions (including in both 2008 and 2007) - thanks to Blair.

Yeah true one of many, this week from a stats point of view is very interesting and amazing to watch things like this will just fall and fall in the coming week.

Might make 5 tomorrow but only just, think 32c might be upper limit depends on the cooling overnight and the winds in the morning think we will make 30c tomorrow easy which takes us to 5 in a row above 30c Thursday will be interesting.

Wish it was rainfall records for most rain on most days etc oh well such is life

This heat/high block isn't all that surprising according to the 12 month plus ~6 week pattern:
Nov 2009 - This heatwave
Sept-Oct 2008 - Warm and dry (remember GF day?)
Late Aug 2007 - 25 degC
Late June into July 2006 - Major blocking high
April 2005 - 35 DegC in late April!
Mid-Feb 2004 - String of blisteringly hot days in Northern Vic
Jan 2003 - 44 degC plus bushfires.

It's interesting to note that in each case there was a significant spell of cold weather preceding the heat:
Early Oct 2009 - Heavy snow in alps
Aug 2008 - Snow in Dandenongs etc
July 2007 - Lots of southerly blasts in 1st half of month
Apr/May 2006 - Colder than average
Feb 2005 - The "bomb" plus much colder than average
Early Jan 2004 - Significantly colder than average
Early Dec 2002 - Several cold outbreaks

All part of the ebb and flow of our weather...

1 and probably only good thing about this heatwave is how fast the Bay temps are going up in only the past 24 hours the average of the bay has gone up from 17.4c to 17.9c! and the Northern part is at almost 19c which is extradoniary for early November should eventually help us when we finally get some rain and showers.

http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~awatkins/temps.html

I agree with everyone of those Stratospear expect 1 which is the Sep/October period last year when we had regular fronts and very windy Spring last year meaning the systems were there therefore there wasn't any block but the reason why we had so little rain was due to the +IOD with no moisture from the Indian Ocean but there was definetly no block those 2 months

Thos bay temp increases are amazing John!!
I can remember only 6-8 weeks ago they were bloody cold!!!

Johnno wrote:1 and probably only good thing about this heatwave is how fast the Bay temps are going up in only the past 24 hours the average of the bay has gone up from 17.4c to 17.9c! and the Northern part is at almost 19c which is extradoniary for early November should eventually help us when we finally get some rain and showers.

http://www.earthsci.unimelb.edu.au/~awatkins/temps.html

and ocean temp is has also jumped remarkably this time last week surfing full lenght wetties this week just boardies soo good

Interesting stuff John!

It seems to me that in this mornings and last nights EC run, it wants to bring in the change a lot earlier on Saturday and if that was the case, temps would not be near 40. But GFS is holding it back and continues to do so in tonights model run, will have to wait and see what EC does but I think it will follow suit with GFS.