Victoria: Heatwave November 13th-20th 2009

Well latest EC is off its tree yet again for the third run, definitely cold pool interacting with warm humid air, and warmer than normal waters....could well be a monster cut off we have been waiting for if all the cards fall our way...

I am expecting temperatures across the inland parts of the western districts (including me) to be higher than what is forecasted by the BoM for tomorrow. I just think 35 is not out of the question for here tomorrow ahead of the high cloud.

Further out I also think Monday and Tuesday will be fine across Victoria, and also Wednesday with temps creeping back to the 30+ degree range.

Thursday is likely to be a TFB day. Temperatures from the latest GFS have things in the low 40's across the western half of the state, high 30's touching 40 elsewhere. There does appear to be strong and gusty northwesterly winds as well ahead of the system that will slowly move in overnight Thursday into Friday. Also may get some afternoon showers and storms with the instability on Thursday across parts of the state, might be a day for severe action as moisture should filter in from the NW.

After that its in the air of what could happen, but EC does look funny with the very strong disturbance between the temperature differences and variables on Monday/Tuesday. Definetley something brewing!

28.8C up here so the 8th hot day in a row for us (I typically take 25C as hot up here given we usually 4-6C cooler than the city). Would expect that is a record - but will never know

Should be pretty similar tomorrow. Hot uppers and mild humid east to southeast winds partly counteracting.

Fingers crossed for the odd shower Monday/Tuesday but moisture looks in short supply.

Must admit that I don't see 40C in the EC model for Thursday. There is quite a lot of mid level cloud and the 850T are near to 20C. ACCESS and EC both (also) have a little rain. Still few days out so has time to change.

Later in the week certainly looks good for rain and next week's EC is off the planet, so should switch back into spring.

Yeah, EC had 31C this morning for Melbourne (for Thursday) and mid 30s now, 35C though for my place. GFS must be going stupid, it's truly out on its own atm.

Only one day of intense heat left now so that's the positive side, and even more positive is the latest outlook from both GFS and EC. Even if it doesn't go as insane as EC is suggesting, there surely must be something decent on the cards even if it downgrades heaps between now and then. Record warm local waters plus a classic spring LWT and cold pool is almost the perfect setup for some intense weather and very wet also. Moisture certainly shouldn't be a problem by then. Given our current weather you could be forgiven for forgetting that at this time of year there is still an ample supply of cold air to our south, the southern ocean hasn't warmed yet.

Well I am glad somone else up this way had stupid temps, topped out here quite early just over 35C, lets see what is in store tommorrow...

32C here today Dagget, the 35C is what EC has forecast for us next Thursday.

Cool bay air has filtered in now so it's 17C and getting a bit muggy.

Melbourne and Surrounding areas have REALLY missed the insane Heat wave that is occurring across MUCH of the Inland SE we are so lucky we keep just missing out.

Much of NW Vic, SA, and West, and inland NSW were in the 40s today for the 3rd or 4th time this week on top of the last 7 days been above 35c and in some places last 6 days have been above 38c.
Insane heat this time of year and many wont see a Major cool down till this time next week with both tomorrow and Wednesday, Thursday been more shockers, and an easy 3 more days of 40-44c heat

Places like Mildura are running Nov means 7c+ above avgere that is huge, and with another week of 10+c maxs ahead, they are surely on track to record the hottest November on record as to is Much of SA, Inland VIC and West and south NSW. Even if last week is cold which I doubt it, but should be in the 20s which will be back to normal and very welcome.

I agree there is a nice change coming up by this time next week, but wont get excited till about Tuesday, would like the models to calm down and level out, so we have a better idea of what to expect.
Cant see big rains or record cold or anything like that at this stage, but back to low 20s with some patches of rain and showery SW winds look good, hopefully warmer and wetter than that though, big wet cut off be great but still VERY early days.
Give it another 72 hours I reckon

How come Twister? Check out EC 168/192 and see how far the air is being dragged up from...this has all the hallmarks of a flooding event, we just need it to be in the right spot first..

I dont know what was going on here then, maybe my thermometer was getting a bit sun and pushing it up a bit, at least on thursday I will be at work in the almost cool.

Ec has downgraded this morning, but will come back into line in the next day or so..maybe not as cyclonic as before but the very cold air is there so should be able to get far enough North for us to get something half decent..

However GFS has ramped it right up for next week, and believe it or not GASP is also onto some very cold air coming in..

As for Friday still looks ok for something half decent, heat is there and some moisture too..expecting showers and storms.

EC now looks very hot for Wed (particularly inland) and Thursday (the whole SE). 850T peak at near 27C in Wednesday in the NW and on Thursday we have 850Ts in the low 20s right onto the coastal strip. Those numbers are insane and if they come off will see the Victorian record high fall (~44.5C from Mildura) and possibly the Melbourne November record fall (40.9C). For this to be (potentially) happening in the middle of November is madness UK is even more extreme - suggests low 40S in Melbourne Thur with the front way back so Friday could be a stinker also.

This heatwave event is in inland areas without historical precedent so when it gets pulled south it has the potential to rewrite the record books. Only question is where does the most extreme heat cross the coast.

Anthony - hope you are right - but don't share you optimism. The models (particularly EC) have been flattening out the sequence of fronts and putting us into an increasingly zonal flow. Sure we might get 10-20mm of rain but some areas have not had a meaningful fall now for near 2 months and will have come off the longest stretch of hot/warm spring weather in history.

Yes not as optimistic today DJ but GFS and GASP still push the cold air in well north, so i am hoping EC hops back onto it tonight. Just a matter of positining for us, the good news is at the very worst that the heat will subside for now. But we need the GFS or last nights EC to come off and push the hot air well inland again..

I must admit, whenever a heatwave event like this occurs, I always have on the back of my mind that something explosive is going to end it, whether it be an amazingly record breaking hot day, or a massive rain event.

At this stage, I am going for an explosive hot day for Thursday or Friday. Not sure if we will get the rain event though.

This weekend in the south had the potential to be dangerous, luckily it hasnt, but I am now starting to feel for all those inland people....no break like we have had.

Must admit the models (UK in particular) are slowing that change up Thursday. I hope it moves into the west of the state on the Thursday, cause records will fall. There is no doubt in my mind that its going to a super hot day of 40 degree heat across much of the state. Now that I have said that hopefully things change and do the opposite... but I just cannot see the models changing it for the better.

Well off to work experience now... starting tomorrow, and not sure if I will be able to get internet access through the next 5 days. So I will miss any updates on conditons except on the news.

Enjoy it Jake.

I'm not so certain that records Will fall this Thursday.. latest 4 day bom chart indicates precipitation arcoss a fair whack of the state Thursday so to me this means there will be quite alot of cloud hence it should prevent records falling mainly in the South & Melbourne. The Far NW may see less cloud so could nudge November records up there.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDG00073.shtml

Is that possible rain? GFS looks as though they are edging towards even Friday being the day of main heat...wouldn't be surprised if Thursday is unsettled and around 35 and Friday spikes up above 40 with a change mid afternoon.

There are a few reasons why I don't feel the low and cold air progged will be as good as it looks in the models
Its a week out and in this range models can never be trusted and I expect it to be pulled back a fair bit to just a low and trough or front passing through with patch's of rain about and dropping temps inland to mid upper 20s.
The country is very dry atm negative Dps right across Australia, unless you are right on the coast up north or on the east coast, like last system ingesting warm dry air into a system wont bring any big falls or storms as the moisture is just not there to boost and provide energy for the system.
Still I said give it till Tuesday avro and that is what I am doing by then models should be almost have a handle on the Thurs Fri front and what follows it.

Poor inland folk another 41c day up that way while only 25c here feels wrong so lucky here.
Expecting to cool to low mid 30s tomorrow before back in the high 30s and low 40s Tues Weds Thurs then hopefully proper cool down by the weekend

Latest GFS has a rather ominous combination. Truly extreme heat for this time of year at least at 850hpa level, high humidity coming down from the NW and slightly cooler uppers (at least the way I'm reading it) as a large mass of low pressure comes towards us. I know we had high humidity at the end of October and early November and very high instability values but only isolated parts of the state did well out of it. This time though looks very different to me. The source of the moisture is at the 750hpa level and a very significant and classic NW infeed. It builds through Thursday and becomes intense by Friday with precipitable water values exceeding 40mm right across the state and by the looks of things approaching 45mm. Dew points should get into the mid teens by Friday afternoon so a good deal of that middle level moisture should make it down to the surface. With 850T getting towards the mid 20s in the south on Friday and above low 20s for the entire Thursday/Friday period and not cooling down much at all until the southerly change around about Saturday morning, we are left with a very volatile situation.

What strikes me the most is how upper levels start to destabilise as the LWT approaches and every day progressively becomes more dynamic and more humid. The weekend could see a lot of development IMO and potentially very high rainfall totals. GFS is progging a rather thick band of cloud along with the peak of the heat and this persists right through the weekend and becomes thicker as each day passes.

IMO, Thursday will be a rather cloudy day, potentially crazy temps well into the low 40s if it was a sunny day with a dry adiabatic lapse rate but I can't see this happening. I'd say mid to high 30s on Thursday with storms developing and becoming widespread as the day progresses. Friday should see thundery rain over the state and low 30s. Saturday and Sunday should see more general rain areas and low to mid 20s.

OK, sure things may change, sure I may end up very disappointed, sure we have been disappointed time and time again, sure this forecast may sound too optimistic but IMO this is how I interpret GFS atm. EC might have something substantially different when it comes out, who knows?

Just putting it out there that when you combine intense heat with significant mid level moisture making it's way down to the surface, an approaching LWT and associated very large low pressure area with MSLP down to 1005, things get extremely volatile.

Thats exactly what GFS is progging Andrew, good summation.

Few showers moving through western Vic atm on a weak low pressure trough just as a side interest.

Those sort of totals will lead to a thick cloud band and rain, if it gets anywhere near PW of 40mm. And given the storms exploding right now through WA the moisture and trigger are definitely going to be around come thursday..so we may be saved from low 40 and only reach mid to high 30s..the BOM in their daily estimates this arvo suggested model divergance and only low to moderate confidence with their forecast, and have gone on the pessimistic side with a 43 at Mildura and Swan Hill...so until thursday morning its all up in the air.

Then beyond that the other models are still going for a major cut off but EC has backed away again to something similar of this mornings run...interesting that most of the others favour a big system next weekend.

I had some substantial ACCAS here this afternoon which i found rather interesting. Started off Cc and rapidly lowered and developed to ACCAS. Some Cu tried to get going but it was too dry. Indications that the uppers are more unstable now than they have been.

EC should come back mid week. I think there is something there on the back edge of the LWT.

Looks like the risk of showers and thunderstorms afternoon and evening about the ranges Wednesday, statewide Thursday and Friday tending to rain periods during Saturday morning before backing off to windy and a few showers Sunday.

Before then there is a risk of seeing some very intense temps. Melbourne may miss the really hot weather all together and probably get as high as 34-35C.

If you want to laugh you need to check out the long range GFS rainfall loop...its on the party drugs!! Another inland lake and genuine Easterly dip by the looks..was laughing my guts out when i saw it.

Click on the link and select precipitation and loop down the left hand side..

http://expert.weatheronline.net.nz/prec_frame.htm

Well, we've certainly had them before and some notable ones have happened before in November. November 1998 I'm pretty sure it was we had 120mm here in a two day period, 80mm the first day, 40mm the next day, easterly dip and low. Mid to late November it was.

Gday Anthony, Just wondering apart from GFS what other models are showing cut offs next weekend and early next week? After doing some searching I could only find GFS is progging this scenario unless I've missed something mate?

Very interesting sunset tonight. Lots of different cloud types in the sky, I only wish I knew all there names.