Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

just light stuff here, watching that radar for something heavy to develop, fingers crossed..

I think we will be right Karl. Laverton 7.5mm after about 90 minutes. We will get a heap tomorrow morning.

Just starting to rain here in the last half hour. Good steady rain - finally. Thought it was never going to eventuate - has been very humid all day. Hope this keeps up!

The latest satellite picture shows what i see, as a low signature forming in north west of Adelaide, would that be a correct observation?

I've been experiencing quite heavy rain here that doesn't look impressive on radar at all, it's like it just keeps dumping right over me literally out of nowhere sometimes. I'm quite surprised by this because I wasn't expecting it to happen at all. I'd given up but boy was I wrong. If they are saying that this is just the beginning and it will get heavier tonight then I have changed my mind now and I think it will. I also think there's going to be flash flooding in my area pretty soon if this keeps up. It's fantastic and the downpours just keep getting heavier and longer. I need to get a bloody rain gauge!

Well that area of heavy rain is now contracting to the Dandenongs and this region and we are up to 5mm now and coming down very thickly.

Seems to be heavy rain developing to the NW.

Yes that low pressure should provide 10-20mm in some spots on top of this rainfall achieved so maybe 20mm is quite probable and 50mm not a large stretch as I first thought...

We are on 8 mm, its very still. Great start to a 30-60mm event hopefully.

Very heavy rain and it's consistent aswell which is great to see.

8.5 mm here so far and looking good.

Very heavy rain here for about 5 minutes, another 3mm in quick time. Southerly winds and slowly cooling but very humid still.

Nice band still developing northwest of here.

Was torrential driving into the city..and expect a lot more to form during the night..going to be some good totals by morning.. And another band of very heavy showers just developing again just to the west. Another 12 hours of this would be nice..

Some heavier showers in the last hour now up to 6mm's.

Missed most of it here so far, but looks good for the next couple of hours, nice line forming to the NW which looks to be intensifing as it gets closer. Heavy now on the roof. Pity the damn thing has started leaking. Bloody cheap landlord will probably take 6 months to fix it as well.....

Really coming down now and looks to have set in for a while. Go you good thing!

Laverton almost up to half an inch. We are close to 10mm here, been very handy. Speaking of handy that line coming in from the NW is very pronounced. Wonder if it will spit out and CC/CG?

Road Weather Alert
for the Inner, Western, Northern, Eastern and South Eastern suburbs and the Dandenong Ranges.
Issued at 7:26 pm EDT on Saturday 21 November 2009.

Reduced visibility in heavy rain and localised inundation of roads will make road conditions dangerous throughout the entire metropolitan area and surrounds for the remainder of Saturday night and on Sunday morning.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:

Reduce Speed
Maintain a greater distance between you and the vehicle in front
Turn on your headlights
For information on any road closures, please contact your local council or the Police.

Well I dont know what the story is with this lot but less than a mm for us, all the decent rain is to the south, ground is wet and the air is damp but thats about it

well so far we have not got a drop it is all slipping to the south west. I hope overnight is better as we could surely use it

Hopefully it sets in for the night. Had a few heavy showers. Quite humid.

Luken wrote:Missed most of it here so far, but looks good for the next couple of hours, nice line forming to the NW which looks to be intensifing as it gets closer. Heavy now on the roof. Pity the damn thing has started leaking. Bloody cheap landlord will probably take 6 months to fix it as well.....

Claim it under urgent repairs. Will be fixed in no time.

Slamming down here now and on the catch up!! 10mm so far!!

Heaviest rain of the event right now.
Good to see that EC is still bullish for tomorrow. Plenty of rain still way north of Adelaide which will be pulled down by the developing low. I think DJ will be on the money with this one!

Edit: Updated melb forecast

Updated Melbourne Forecast
Issued at 7:29 pm EDT on Saturday 21 November 2009
for the period until midnight EDT Saturday 28 November 2009.

Forecast for the rest of Saturday
Cloudy. Areas of heavy rain. Light winds.

Forecast for Sunday
Cloudy. Heavy rain periods, easing to isolated showers around midday. Winds north to northeasterly averaging up to 20 km/h tending west to southwesterly up to 45 km/h around dawn then decreasing below 25 km/h by early evening.

CityRain. Windy. Min 17 Max20

Scott Williams must be on as Senior Forecaster tonight with that forecast set. I think the heavy rain will ease through the day and back to showers by tomorrow evening and clearing Monday morning.

That last shower was intense. Wes I look forward to the next one as your sending the to me as you get them!! Keep me posted

OK for us in the eastern suburbs, be warned of flash flooding, particularly a line east of Melbourne down to Cranbourne. The coming hour could see local falls of 30mm as this convergence line over the inner north becomes more organised. I think we could be staring down the barrel of something here...

Not to be pre-emptive but certainly I would be lifting valuables in your garages or flood prone areas to higher ground immediately.

Brilliant I am truly excited now, this event looks really up and running!

We just had our first downpour for the night! Amazing line of rain on the radar and looks like more are forming.

50+ mm doesn't look out of the question now.

Not wrong Karl, it is an unusual setup to get a line coming in from the NW!! The norm is a line of this type on a squally change. Radar is slightly under-estimating the rate, not by much however.

These warmer bay temps are giving the eastern flank of the bay a good touch-up. Gardiners Creek will certainly be up after this, will have to get down there at first light to take some pics