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Post  Power Storm Sat Oct 31, 2009 10:58 am

Simpson South, Southwest Victoria, Australia Forecast
Updated: 1:59pm

Saturday Afternoon (Derby Day): Partly cloudy. A shower or two and the chance of an afternoon and evening thunderstorm. Humid with light and variable winds. Max 28
Precis: Shower or two. Possible thunderstorm.

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Post  Johnno Sat Oct 31, 2009 3:06 pm

Tonight: Risk of a storm about. Moderate S winds through Western and central suburbs & Northerly at first in outer E burbs tending southerly throughout then becoming light overnight. Min 17c.


Sunday: Early low cloud or fog patches then fine apart from the chance of a shower or storm later in the day. Moderate SW to SE breeze. Max 23c

Monday: Few Showers developing and possible thunderstorms developing late in the day or in the evening. Rather Very warm to humid NNE winds redeveloping and freshening later on ahead of a gusty WSW change at night. Min 14 Max 30c.

MELBOUNE CUP DAY: Cool. Few Showers clearing by night. Fresh to strong SW winds easing. Min 13 Max 19c.

Wednesday: Morning shower then fine. Moderate to fresh SSW winds. Min 10 max 18c.

Oaks day. Fine. Light winds and afternoon seabreezes. Min 10 Max 22c


Friday and next weekend: Fine. Becoming hot with temps in the low 30's by Saturday & Sunday

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Post  Power Storm Sun Nov 01, 2009 6:05 am

Simpson South, Southwest Victoria, Australia Forecast
Updated: 9:05am

Sunday: Morning cloud clearing to a partly cloudy day, though a shower or two developing during the afternoon and evening. A light wind. Max 22
Precis: Shower or two later.

Outlook:
Monday: Showers and possible thunderstorms developing. Humid. Freshening NNW wind. Min 9 Max 29
Tuesday (Melbourne Cup Day): Few showers easing. Fresh to strong SW wind. Min 12 Max 17
Wednesday: Risk early drizzle. Light SW wind. Min 7 Max 18
Thursday: Fine. Light E wind. Min 6 Max 21
Friday: Fine. Light NE wind. Min 8 Max 26
Saturday: Mainly fine. Becoming humid. Light NE wind. Min 10 Max 29
Sunday: Mainly fine. Humid. Light NE wind. Min 12 Max 31

Next Update: Sunday, 7:00pm

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Post  Johnno Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:36 am

Looks like my general view for today since last week of having low temps in Melbourne (compare to BOM) could be on the cards, always thought BOMs temps were abit to high and knowing all this moisture be about and in any southerly airstream whether strong or light knew there be fair amount of cloud today even had drizzle here before so therefore my predicted temp of mainly 19-22c for most of the week for today could well be on the cards by the look of things. In my eyes today never looked like being a warm or hot day in Melbourne.

EDIT: And just realised I went for 33c for yesterday all week in all my forecasts without budging for Melbourne in any of my 7 day forecasts which in the end was the temp always knew BOM were to low for yesterday at one stage they had 28c for yesterday. Not a bad effort Smile today they have done the reverse and gone to high.

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Post  droughtbreaker Sun Nov 01, 2009 8:49 am

The BOM have gone ridiculously cautious on just about everything. I know the new automated forecasting system is in part responsible for this (even though it is the models that are indicating different weather to what BOM is most of the time:roll: ) but it still doesn't explain why the bureau continuously underestimate or overestimate temperatures, particularly when there is a cold outbreak or heatwave ahead or the sea breeze is prominent, as well as repeatedly holding back on forecasting rain.

The forecasters at the bureau know as well as and better than we do what the weather will be but for some reason always hold back almost like it's some sort of government policy or something to do so. It's a pity because they are supposed to be the number one authority who the general public should be going to to get accurate forecasts. Instead they'd be better served going to this site and reading this thread here in particular.

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Post  Karl Lijnders Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:51 am

Melbourne:

Sunday: Cloudy and misty with the chance of a late shower or thunderstorm. Cool and humid.

Monday: An early shower or thunderstorm then fine. Cloud developing later with further showers and thunderstorms developing and tending to a period of rain as NE winds shift Wly later towards evening. Hot and humid ahead of the change. 33C

Tuesday: Showers, mainly east, easing later. 18C
Wednesday: Becoming fine. 19C
Thursday: Fine. 22C
Friday: Fine 28C
Saturday: Mainly fine. 31C
Sunday: Unsettled. 31C
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Post  Johnno Sun Nov 01, 2009 10:55 am

Johnno wrote:Hi Watto, yeah the way i see it is we will be in onshore SW to SE winds and be fair bit of cloud and probably the odd spot of rain with a cloudband from the NW and had that feeling for quite a few days usually in these moist S winds days with alot of cloud Melbourne struggles to get to 20c so thats what Im baseing it on mate


My response to Watto during last week. Today could well be like that again.



Hopefully another thundery outbreak around the 10th & 11th Karl just intime for my birthday it would be a nice present Smile

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Post  Johnno Sun Nov 01, 2009 1:39 pm

Fair call by BOM tomorrow should get to 33c as mentioned in other thread by Karl, depends on cloud if its cloudy most the day be 28-31c across Melbourne if there isn't much cloud could easily go 33-37c across Melbourne. Max may be a late one or just before the change so perhaps a 5 to 7pm Max.

Will do my forecast later Smile

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Post  Power Storm Sun Nov 01, 2009 4:13 pm

Simpson South, Southwest Victoria, Australia Forecast
Updated: 7:14pm

Sunday Evening: Mostly cloudy. A few light showers and drizzle. Light wind.
Precis: Light showers/drizzle.

Monday: Morning cloud with a light shower or two clearing to mostly sunny conditions, though cloud increasing from the early afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, developing during the afternoon and evening. Becoming humid with light northeasterly winds, tending north to northwesterly during the afternoon and freshening ahead of a milder westerly change late in the day. Min 10 Max 32
Precis: Late change. Humid.

Outlook:
Tuesday (Melbourne Cup Day): Few showers easing. Fresh to strong SW wind. Min 12 Max 17
Wednesday: Light shower or two. Light to moderate SW wind. Min 7 Max 18
Thursday: Early drizzle, then fine. Light S wind. Min 6 Max 20
Friday: Fine. Light E wind. Min 7 Max 23
Saturday: Fine. Light NE wind. Min 9 Max 27
Sunday: Mainly fine. Light NNE wind. Min 12 Max 30
Monday: Mainly fine. Light NE wind. Min 14 Max 31

Next Update: Monday, 7:00pm

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Post  Johnno Sun Nov 01, 2009 5:48 pm

Tonight: Cloudy but generally fine with slim chance of the odd spot of rain. Light winds. Min 14c.

Monday: Cloudy at first then becoming sunnier for a period and gradually becoming warmer to become hot by late afternoon. Light winds at first tending light to moderate SE to NE til mid afternoon then winds gradually shifting moderate to fresh NNE by late afternoon/early evening and spreading south and eastwards ahead of a gusty WSW change between 10pm to 2am. Showers and local thunderstorms are possible near the change late at night or early morning. Max 35c.. Should be a late Max around 6 or 7pm (but that depends on cloud. If its cloudier may only reach 30c)

MELBOUNE CUP DAY: Cooler. Few Showers mainly Eastern suburbs. Fresh to strong WSW winds tending more SW during the afternoon. Min 13 Max 19c.

Wednesday: Possible shower or two about. Moderate to fresh SSW winds. Min 10 max 18c.

Oaks day: Early light shower then fine. Light to moderate S winds & afternoon seabreezes. Min 11 Max 20c

Friday: Fine & mostly sunny. light winds and seabreezes. Min 10 Max 24c.

Saturday/Stakes day: Fine & mostly sunny. Becoming warm. Light NE winds and seabreezes. Min 12 Max 27c.

Sunday: Fine & mostly sunny. Warm to hot and somewhat humid. Light to moderate NNE winds and afternoon seabreezes. Min 15 Max 32c.


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Post  I_Love_Storms Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:36 am

Looks like BOM has gone for the cloud option and back to 29, do you guys agree?

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Post  Power Storm Mon Nov 02, 2009 4:38 am

Simpson South, Southwest Victoria, Australia Forecast
Updated: 7:38am

Monday: Morning cloud with a shower or two, clearing to mostly sunny conditions, though cloud increasing again from the early afternoon. A few showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, developing during the afternoon and evening. Humid with light northeasterly winds, tending north to northwesterly during the afternoon and freshening ahead of a milder westerly change late in the day. Max 31
Precis: Late change. Humid.

Outlook:
Tuesday (Melbourne Cup Day): Few showers easing. Fresh to strong SW wind. Min 12 Max 17
Wednesday: Light shower or two. Light to moderate SW wind. Min 7 Max 18
Thursday: Early drizzle, then fine. Light S wind. Min 6 Max 20
Friday: Fine. Light E wind. Min 7 Max 23
Saturday: Fine. Light NE wind. Min 9 Max 27
Sunday: Mainly fine. Light NNE wind. Min 12 Max 30
Monday: Mainly fine. Light NE wind. Min 14 Max 31

Next Update: Monday, 7:00pm

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Post  Karl Lijnders Mon Nov 02, 2009 8:51 am

Melbourne:

Monday: A shower or two with local thunder clearing east early afternoon. Becoming warmer with winds tending northerly later. Showers and local thunderstorms developing tonight ahead and with a squally SW change near midnight. Becoming colder following the change. 31C

Tuesday: Showers increasing late morning before easing later. Strong and gusty NW winds shifting SW during the afternoon and easing. 21C
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Post  Karl Lijnders Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:45 pm

Melbourne:

Monday Evening: A few showers and thunderstorms increasing before a WNW change around 2am. Becoming cooler later.

Tuesday: Possible early thunderstorm. A few showers developing late morning as NW winds shift strong and gusty westerly, then ease later. 21C

Wednesday: A few showers clearing. 20C
Thursday: Fine. 23C
Friday: Fine 28C
Saturday: Fine. 31C
Sunday: Fine. Humid. 32C
Monday: Chance of late showers or thunderstorms. 33C
Tuesday: Showers and the chance of thunderstorms later. 29C
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Post  Power Storm Mon Nov 02, 2009 3:50 pm

Simpson South, Southwest Victoria, Australia Forecast
Updated: 6:50pm

Monday Evening: Cloud increasing. A few showers and thunderstorms, possibly severe, developing this evening. Humid with strong to gale force northeasterly winds tending northwesterly tonight ahead of a milder westerly change late tonight.
Precis: Late change. Few showers/storms.

Tuesday (Melbourne Cup Day): Mostly cloudy with frequent showers, easing later in the day. Strong to gale force southwesterly winds. Min 12 Max 17
Precis: Showers easing. Windy.

Outlook:
Wednesday: Light shower or two. Light to moderate SW wind. Min 7 Max 18
Thursday: Early drizzle, then fine. Light SE wind. Min 6 Max 20
Friday: Fine. Light ENE wind. Min 7 Max 23
Saturday: Fine. Light NE wind. Min 9 Max 27
Sunday: Mainly fine. Light NNE wind. Min 12 Max 30
Monday: Mainly fine. Light NE wind. Min 14 Max 31
Tuesday: Mainly fine. Light wind. Min 16 Max 30

Next Update: Tuesday, 7:00pm

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Post  Power Storm Tue Nov 03, 2009 3:32 pm

Simpson South, Southwest Victoria, Australia Forecast
Updated: 6:33pm

Tuesday Evening: Mostly cloudy with a light shower or two. Strong southwesterly winds easing.
Precis: Light shower or two. Winds easing.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy. A light shower or two clearing during the day. Light to moderate southwesterly winds. Min 7 Max 18
Precis: Becoming fine.

Outlook:
Thursday: Fine. Light SE wind. Min 6 Max 20
Friday: Fine. Light ENE wind. Min 7 Max 23
Saturday: Fine. Light NE wind. Min 9 Max 27
Sunday: Mainly fine. Becoming humid. Light NNE wind. Min 12 Max 30
Monday: Risk afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Light NE wind. Min 14 Max 31
Tuesday: Risk afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Light NE wind. Min 16 Max 33
Wednesday: Risk afternoon/evening shower or thunderstorm. Humid. Light NE wind. Min 17 Max 34

Next Update: Wednesday, 7:00pm

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Post  Johnno Tue Nov 03, 2009 4:57 pm

Tonight: Shower or two. Moderte to fresh WSW winds. Min 11c.

Wednesday: Possible shower or two about. Moderate to fresh SSW winds. Min 10 max 18c.

Oaks day: Early light shower then fine. Light to moderate S winds & afternoon seabreezes. Min 11 Max 20c

Friday: Fine & mostly sunny. light winds and seabreezes. Min 9 Max 24c.

Saturday/Stakes day: Fine & mostly sunny. Becoming warm. Light NE winds and seabreezes. Min 12 Max 29c.

Sunday: Fine & mostly sunny. Warm to hot and somewhat humid. Light to moderate NNE winds and afternoon seabreezes. Min 15 Max 33c.

Monday: Mostly fine: Very warm to hot. Moderate NE breeze and seabreezes later. Min 18 Max 33c.

Tuesday: Mostly fine. Min 18 Max 31c.


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Post  Power Storm Wed Nov 04, 2009 4:12 pm

Simpson South, Southwest Victoria, Australia Forecast
Updated: 7:13pm

Wednesday Evening: Fine and mostly cloudy. Light to moderate southwesterly winds.
Precis: Fine.

Thursday: Morning cloud and possible drizzle, then a fine and partly cloudy afternoon. Light southeasterly winds. Min 6 Max 20
Precis: Becoming fine.

Outlook:
Friday: Fine. Light ENE wind. Min 7 Max 23
Saturday: Fine. Light NE wind. Min 9 Max 27
Sunday: Mainly fine. Becoming humid. Light NNE wind. Min 12 Max 30
Monday: Risk afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm. Humid. Light NE wind. Min 14 Max 31
Tuesday: Risk afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm. Humid. Light NE wind. Min 16 Max 31
Wednesday: Risk afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm. Humid. Light NE wind. Min 17 Max 32
Thursday: Risk afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm. Humid. Light NE wind. Min 17 Max 32

Next Update: Thursday, 7:00pm

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Post  Karl Lijnders Thu Nov 05, 2009 1:04 pm

Melbourne:

Thursday: Fine and partly cloudy with fresh southerly winds.

Friday: Fine with light winds. Seabreezes later. 24C

Saturday: Fine. 31C
Sunday: Fine 32C
Monday: Fine. Humid. 33C
Tuesday: Chance of a late thunderstorm. Humid. 34C
Wednesday: Chance of late showers and thunderstorms. 33C
Thursday: Chance of showers and storms. Humid. 27C
Friday: Few showers. 24C
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Post  Johnno Thu Nov 05, 2009 3:02 pm

Oaks evening: Fine & cool. Light to moderate S winds & fresh early evening seabreezes easing with winds becoming variable overnight. Min 9.

Friday: Fine & mostly sunny. Light ESE winds and afternoon seabreezes. Max 23c.

Saturday/Stakes day: Fine & mostly sunny. Becoming warm. Light NE winds and afternoon SE seabreezes. Min 12 Max 29c.

Sunday: Fine & mostly sunny. Warm to hot and somewhat humid. few clouds around in the early afternoon. Moderate Northerly winds and late afternoon and evening weak to moderate seabreezes. Min 15 Max 33c.

Monday: Fine Very warm to hot and somewhat humid. few clouds around in the early afternoon. Light to Moderate NE breeze and afternoon seabreezes. Min 18 Max 32c.

Tuesday: Chance of an afternoon thunderstorm. Humid. light winds shifting Southerly and freshening. Min 18 Max 28c.

Wednesday/My Birthday: Early low cloud and mist patches then becoming fine and mostly sunny. Light WSW at first winds tending Southerly and freshening later. Min 16 Max 25c.

Thursday: Fine and mostly sunny. SE to NE winds and afternoon seabreezes. Min 15 Max 29c.



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Post  Power Storm Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:35 pm

Simpson South, Southwest Victoria, Australia Forecast
Updated: 7:35pm

Thursday Evening: Fine and clear. Light wind.
Precis: Fine.

Friday: Fine and sunny. Light east to northeasterly winds. Min 7 Max 23
Precis: Fine.

Outlook:
Saturday: Mainly fine. Light to moderate NNE wind. Min 9 Max 28
Sunday: Fine. Becoming humid. Light NNE wind. Min 12 Max 30
Monday: Risk afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm. Humid. Light NNE wind. Min 14 Max 31
Tuesday: Risk afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm. Humid. Light NNE wind. Min 15 Max 31
Wednesday: Risk afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm. Humid. Light NE wind. Min 17 Max 31
Thursday: Mainly fine. Humid. Light NE wind. Min 17 Max 30
Friday: Mainly fine. Humid. Light NE wind. Min 17 Max 31

Next Update: Friday, 7:00pm

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Post  I_Love_Storms Thu Nov 05, 2009 4:41 pm

Simpson forecast looks like a Darwin forecast only 4-5 degrees lower Very Happy

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Post  Johnno Fri Nov 06, 2009 3:49 pm

Tonight: Fine. Moderate SE winds and afternoon seabreezes. Min 13c.

Saturday/Stakes day: Fine & mostly sunny. Becoming warm. Light NE winds and afternoon SE seabreezes. Max 30c.

Sunday: Fine & mostly sunny. Warm to hot and somewhat humid. few clouds around in the early afternoon. Moderate Northerly winds and late afternoon and evening weak to moderate seabreezes. Min 17 Max 34c.

Monday: Fine Very warm to hot and somewhat humid. few clouds around in the early afternoon. Light to Moderate NW to NE breeze and afternoon seabreezes. Min 18 Max 32c.

Tuesday: Mainly fine. Humid. light winds shifting Southerly and freshening. Min 18 Max 28c.

Wednesday/My Birthday: Early mist patches then becoming fine and mostly sunny. Light winds tending Southerly and SE at night. Min 16 Max 26c.

Thursday: Fine and mostly sunny. SE to NE winds and afternoon seabreezes. Min 15 Max 30c.

Friday: Fine. Min 17 max 32c.

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Post  Karl Lijnders Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:17 pm

Melbourne:

Saturday: Fine and sunny. Light NE winds and seabreezes later. 32C

Sunday: Fine and sunny. Fresh N winds easing later. 35C
Monday: Fine. Becoming humid. 34C
Tuesday: Chance of a late thunderstorm. 34C
Wednesday: Chance of late showers and thunderstorms. 32C
Thursday: Showers and the chance of thunderstorms. 29C
Friday: Fine 32C
Saturday: Fine. Hot. 37C
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Post  norfolk Fri Nov 06, 2009 6:48 pm

wow Karl....interesting for next Saturday!

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