Tasmania: Series of cold fronts & further substantial rainfall August 18 to August 25

Whilst us Victorians are getting excited about the next round of wet and windy weather, our friends down south will again be in the firing line, especially the Northern half of the state.

18z GFS is prog' good falls to an inch, some areas over an inch til Friday. Similar to our forecasts, there is uncertainty over the weekend, however I feel something big is brewing early next week.

Most of Tasmania' catchments are saturated, with the North and South Esk River having been in flood over the past week, as well as the Macquarie river.

An interesting week ahead!!!

Flood Watch has been issued for all northern Tasmanian rivers. I have lost count how many times a Flood watch has been issued this winter.

Several NW and Central townships picked up an inch overnight.

This winter really has been a lost opportunity for Vic. We have had a bit of rain, but just across the strait its been coming in buckets. Gotta wonder if in years gone by this would have been a bumper year for us, but with everything now a little bit further south we just pick up the edges

Perhaps your right DJ,

But with the increasing heat pockets across the interior of the country, this could see an increase in heat lows across the continent, spreading SE earlier in the season and hooking up with cooler air and perhaps increasing rainfall for this period of the calander year.

We have seen a few mega systems in mid-late spring and early summer with I think a few years back i recorded nearly 300mm for December!!!

Back to the TAS weather and I think there will be some significant flooding around the plateau over the coming week, and with another potential westerly belt setting up later in the modelled prognostic period, could be a major event down there on the west coast this time!!! Hobart seems to be sheltered well from the flooding but hasn't avoided the rain this winter!!! More like the south coast of NSW there!!!

I would just like to say its great to see a thread for the Taswegians, the first of many I hope. The land of ABC has often been neglected IMO. They just needed a place to go to, I am sure come November, we will have many BlackBobs on board and filling a wide gap in weather reporting that a lot of us are interested in.

Severe Weather Warning just issued for Destructive winds.

IDT28100
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Tasmania

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Destructive Winds
For areas north of a line from Savage River to Bicheno.
Issued at 8:55 am on Friday 21 August 2009

Synoptic Situation:
A cold front currently at Smithton will cross the north of the state today,
clearing the east around noon.

Thunderstorms and northwest winds strong enough to bring down some tree branches
and power lines and to cause some roof damage to exposed houses are expected
near and with the front. The strongest gust is expected to be 130km/h.

At its current speed the cold front is expected at Burnie about 9.20am,
Devonport about 9.50am, Launceston about 10.20am and near the east coast just
before noon.

Recent Events:
Gusts of 115 to 130km/h have been recorded at King Island and Cape Grim in the
last hour.
Trees have been broken off near Marrawah.

The Macquarie, North Esk and South Esk Rivers have all back in flood, with the Macquarie poised to cause the most concern. Falls have been consistent, around the 10-25mm mark. Just with such a saturated catchments, any reasonable falls exacerbates the problem.

A dry day ahead with showers/rain developing tonight into Sunday. GFS is still keen on some very big totals over the week.

The Meander River is now in flood. Rain increasing tonight into tomorrow, including squall lines. Some handy falls over the last day. Nothing too severe, up to an inch in places. But multiply this with previous falls and probable heavy falls, there are grounds for concern.

The following rivers have had Flood Warnings issued or updated:

Macquarie (Moderate)
Meander (Minor)
Mersey (Minor)
North Esk River Basin (Minor to Moderate)
South Esk River Basin (Moderate)

That cold front should pass through Melbourne at about 10pm tonight with winds of 100kmh in places with it.

New flood warning issued, for the Derwent River. I am surprised that no Severe Weather Warning for Damaging Winds has been issued.

Anyway some handy (not heavy) falls have continued over the past 24hrs, mainly on the West Coast. Like Vic, conditions will deteriorate this afternoon with showers on the increase with isolated thunderstorms.

Weekly totals to 9am today can be found here.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/wrap_fwo.pl?IDT60130.html

I have taken particluar interest in rainfall reading at Strahan. They have received approx 646mm this winter. A real chance on cracking the 700mm mark by 31/8!!

Thanks for the updates on Tassie Sniper.

A pleasure RG!!

Today looks as being a crunch day with this deep low (959hPa) barrelling towards the West Coast.

A severe weather warning has been posted for Damaging winds between 8am and 4pm with gusts to reach 100kmh with isolated 120kmh gusts possible. Notorious exposed areas will record much higher speeds such as Cape Grim.

Some decent falls over the past 24 hours, especially on the West Coast, where falls between 30 & 50mm where the norm.

Looking showery over Tasmania at the moment the showers should confine to the West tonight and tomorrow morning before becoming widespread again tomorrow night with another front.

Even though BOM don't agree at the moment watch for more proper rain areas with potentially heavy falls develop over the North and North east of the state Early Saturday morning.. Some models are showing another potential 20-50mm through most of the North and North East as that low tracks SE and deepens and drags the cloud and rain down with it. I would expect an upgrade of wetter weather for Tassie (Mainly Northern Tasmania) within the next few forecasts. There could be quite a few problems down there come Saturday night.

The whole Apple Isle has had exceptional Winter rainfall with above to well above average rainfall in most of the state East, West, North. Not bad during an El Nino

Looks like BOM are onto it now as I expected...


Tasmania:
Thursday:
Showers, frequent about the west although more isolated about the east. Snowfalls about the highest peaks lowering to around 700m about the west tonight. Generally cool with fresh to strong and gusty westerly winds, easing in the evening.

Friday:
Scattered light showers about the west and Bass Strait islands with light highland snowfalls. Fine elsewhere. Cool to cold with light to moderate westerly winds, fresh at first about the south, tending northerly in the evening.

In Brief: Showers, contracting to the west and Bass Strait islands tomorrow. Highland snow.

Outlook for Saturday :
Rain about the north, easing later in the day. Showers elsewhere. Highland snow. Cool to cold with moderate northerly winds turning southwesterly and freshening.

http://www.rosebay.tased.edu.au/webcam/small.html

plenty of snow on t mountain.

Another Severe Weather Warning (for damaging winds) issued for Tasmania today.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING
for Damaging Winds
For all Tasmania for today.
Issued at 8:20 am on Monday 31 August 2009

Synoptic Situation:
An intense low pressure system is passing well to the south of Tasmania, with an
associated cold front to cross the state around the middle of the day.

Westerly winds strong enough to bring down some tree branches and power lines
are expected over all Tasmania from this morning. Wind gusts up to 110km/hr are
expected throughout, particularly in elevated and exposed locations.
South of a line from Strahan to Swansea, wind gusts may reach 115 to 125 km/h at
times.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should secure loose outside
items.
Recent events: Significant gusts have already occurred this morning, though
mostly at exposed and elevated locations - 163km/hr at Maatsuyker Island,
139km/hr at Hartz Mountains and 157km/hr at Scotts Peak, 119 km/h at Cape Grim
and 100 km/h at Strahan.