Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Yeah a few handy falls in the Western ranges so far.

For those who like to see ECWMF rainfall map it is currently available & it has 2-4mm later tomorrow and tomorrow night for Melbourne and very little about Wednesday through South Central Vic and Melbourne as the upslide goes towards Western Victoria again but picks up again Wednesday night into Thursday morning as it nudges ever so slowly back East (4-10mm) and more throughout Thursday as it progs another 4-10mm until Thursday night for us so going by the latest EC Thursday now seems to be the wetter day for us down here with a few more mm's through Friday. Tuesday and Wednesday seem to be the wetter days in Northern and Western areas of Victoria. Then we have that low and front to our west Saturday coming in as it weakens abit but I wonder if it can uplift some of the moisture available to it left behind from this current upper system. Other peoples thoughts?

3.2mm here today so that's a start, only dribbly stuff in Nth. Melbourne, not even enough to wet the ground.

Models looking good for here, particularly GFS which has 50mm for the Macedon Ranges over the next 7 days. EC looks more like 40mm over the same period so that's a pretty good outlook.
Not sure exactly what to make of it myself it seems hit and miss to me although you'd expect the ranges to provide the lift required for heavier and more persistent patches of rain in amongst the dribbly stuff. Yet to see exactly what will end up happening.

A frustrating day in Melbourne with the rain edging in then breaking up (repeatedly). Pattern continued all day, while 50km north it continued all day. Very clearly we were just on the edge of the upslide as progged by EC/LAPS etc. Squeezed 0.2mm up here in FC and had a few more spits tonight.

Some great falls through the west again (the same area which fluked the on event in May). Would imagine some out there are wondering why everyone else is whinging! Another 21mm at Mt William and 11mm at Stawell and it's still raining.

Looks great for the next week across the whole of Vic - certainly 20-50mm totals should be widespread - though very messy and slow moving so will be very frustrating watching rain/shower bands train over the one location dropping good totals while nearby it stays dry. Melbourne is marginal the next 24 hours - but improve Wed/Thur as the trough deepens just to our west.

Also now looking like some snow for the weekend with 850T near 0C. Not a lot but should get the snow bunnies excited

Nice area of moderate rain moving down towards the western side of Melbourne this morning which is promising.

Some excellent follow up rain across the west with 30mm over the Grampians. Some of that rain is moving a little so C Victoria can expect similar totals. Most of the models away from US have great falls for Melbourne. MLAPS starts the good rain tomorrow into Thursday.

Signs of the weekend system strengthening a little.

A frustrating wait in Melbourne ATM. EC which IMHO has been the best model for this event has the focus of rain moving into central/west-central Vic today. Models still going for excellent falls - 25 to 50mm widespread for the next week.

Good to see the good totals through the Grampians/central ranges/Trentham/Macedon etc - key runoff areas for west/central Vic. These should continue for the next 72-94 hours as the trough hardly moves.

What do you make of LAPS and MLAPS DJ?? Seems to be some great rain forecast from tomorrow. Is it credible??

Persisten rain here over the pastn two days. 1.4mm in the gauge to 9am this morning.

Looks as if the rain areas will stick around for certain now until Friday, before further showers develop from the west at night and some thunderstorms likely to be chucked into the mix as well, good to see the BoM following this. And another strong frong early next week likely too.

Half your lack Power Storm.. all we have had in Melbourne and Ferny Creek is about 1 hour of spits. Hardly enough to make up 0.2mm. It is slowly starting to thicken up and it would appear that the trough is slowly sharpening and the northerlies are penetrating further south meaning the upslide is also edging south.

Latest models look very wet - EC has significant rain right through until mid next week, and even then there is a deepening low to our east which could trigger some good showers/drizzle. GFS is broadly similar. Totals could widely get to 50mm if these models are right. The focus is slowly edging east - indeed EC has the best action in the next 48 hours just west of Melbourne. Is fantastic too see such a protracted period of dull wet weather but would be good to see totals building.

So far today the top fall is just 3.6mm at Yarrawonga and Ballarat with lots of 2-3mm totals through the west. Also, notable so far that the catchments haven't done so well with this system - apart from the Grampians.

A further 4.5mm here overnight and very early this morning but only very light drizzle since by the looks of things so nothing added to that today. 7.7mm all up and as you mentioned David it looks like rain areas are thickening up slowly and the focus shifting east. In theory I should be in prime position here for good rain over the next couple of days but there are always surprises with the weather so just taking it as it comes. Long weekend looking very interesting witha bit of everything, showers/storms and then snow down to relatively low levels Tuesday, maybe 800m asl at this stage.

It is nice to hear the light rain on the roof. A better band coming down out of the northeast is a sign of things developing further as the trough edges slowly SE and deepens a little more. Should see it increase overnight and persist through the Melbourne metro areas with showers further west.

I think there is the chance of a few thunderstorms in the NW tomorrow. Light winds to persist too so the bands of rain will not be moving fast.

Later in the weekend looks very interesting and some larger accumulations might make up for the losses in May in some areas.

I'm just in the right area I guess DJ I'm sure Melbourne tonight and tomorrow will get heavier stuff then whats been occuring, due to the fact that the trough is moving SE as previously mentioned, and it will be interacting with better atmospheric conditions.

Just wondering Karl, what gives you the feeling that there may be isolated thunderstorms in the northwest tomorrow?

Just with the amount of clearance and the moisture in the region. The low pressure trough is broad and with sufficient diurnal heating perhaps there could be a couple of thunderstorms (albeit brief) over the those regions.

Colder air about also helps supporting convection too.

Still light rain here. Seems to be persisting about the hills between myself and DJ/RG.

Ahhh. Thanks for the explanation. The only thing I could think off that may let off a thunderstorm was how much moisture was around and the colder temps, but it really didn't mix IMO, but then you mentioned strong clearence, which I completley forgot was happening. Lol. Thanks again mate.

One notable aspect of this system, as DJ has alluded to from the outset, is it is a dead boring one to watch and frustrating. The interest with this one is pretty much getting up in the morning and finding the rain in the gauge rather than the actual weather that is happening. It is just persistent light rain and drizzle for an extended period of time, a bit like England in summer.

Having said that we should all be very happy by the end of it with widespread decent accumulated falls.

Another 2mm so far tonight and solid drizzle atm.

Widespread lights fall continue - though again focused over the western plains/Grampians/central ranges. Few more 10mm+ falls with some places now close to 50mm for the event (Mt William on ~49mm) and lots of 20mm+. In contrast it's just dribbles south and east of the main focus. Exceptionally mild and humid for winter - a "min" of 10.0C in FC last night and unbelievable it sat between 10.0C and 10.1C from 12am to 6:30am.

Today the trough deepens south/east and eventually forms a weak low. This will see winds go more westerly and the general upslide will weaken out. IMHO looks like time is running out for Melbourne to see much out of this initial system, and attention now turns to the weekends "low" and fronts.

~4mm here overnight. Hoping for a bit more ahead of the weekend.

We've only had 2mm in the last 48 hrs in Ferny Creek although I'm not really trusting my wireless rain gauge atm after that huge reading the other night

4mm here with this system 3mm overnight 1mm today.

84mm for the year here really am struggling here.

Another 2mm here this afternoon and maybe some more to come overnight. Better than nothing

Wouldn't rule it out in a dominant W or NW wind stream but look it is an outlier and has handled this whole sequence poorly so far.

The rain has ceased for now but I suspect further rain to develop off the ranges over the coming few hours. Maybe with some luck another 5-10mm.

Persistent moderate rain here today, I'm not sure why the radar did not pick that up But to 9am this morning 4.2mm. Looks like further persistent rain is on its way here tonight from the NE.

A dull mild humid day in Melbourne with a few light showers. Yet again the best rainfall has been along the central ranges (Macedon area and west) and areas to the near north and south. Another 9mm at Horsham the best so far, but lots of 5-10mm across the area. Rain is slowly breaking, but becoming more convective - as the upper trough moves closer to us. Almost looks a bit thundery in place ATM on the radar and Vis satellite image.

Could be some locally heavy showers tomorrow, then clearing ahead of a damp weekend (hopefully for all!).

Yeah, I noticed that today a few 'puffs' of Cu went up after the sun came out briefly, makes things more interesting.

17.5mm total here now, certainly a handy fall but basically just drizzly stuff and dribs and drabs, over the duration of the event there have been a few relatively short periods of moderate rainfall in amongst the drizzle that has been responsible for the majority of that 17.5mm. One thing though the ground is wetter than it has been all year, squelching underfoot and puddles everywhere.

Excellent stuff Andrew and I am sure that is making it feel somewhat 'normal' for the time being.

Awesome rainfall through the west with 15mm at Horsham and further showers about the region, this moving over the catchment regions of the Grampians and western agricultural plains.

I think it is becoming more convective and we are going to need everything going our way for a few thunderstorms tomorrow but there is the slight chance. I think Melbourne may have better chance tomorrow of seeing suburbs getting closer to 5-10mm.