Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jun 03, 2009 5:37 pm

Excellent stuff Andrew and I am sure that is making it feel somewhat 'normal' for the time being.

Awesome rainfall through the west with 15mm at Horsham and further showers about the region, this moving over the catchment regions of the Grampians and western agricultural plains.

I think it is becoming more convective and we are going to need everything going our way for a few thunderstorms tomorrow but there is the slight chance. I think Melbourne may have better chance tomorrow of seeing suburbs getting closer to 5-10mm.
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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Wed Jun 03, 2009 5:52 pm

Home to find 1.8mm in the gauge to add to last nights 1.9mm. Crazy stuff for us to have such small totals day after day and now 6 weeks since we had a 10mm day. Also very mild with 14.8C.

EC puts some heavy showers through Melbourne tomorrow in the NW flow. These set ups with sufficient low level moisture can be very productive through the eastern burbs as they build in the lee of Macedon (thanks Andrew). Of course, might not happen Crying or Very sad

Great to see falls still clocking up in the west and now in the northeast.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Wed Jun 03, 2009 6:51 pm

It is hard to swallow these real shallow falls but really the models have been persistant in keeping the rain west and north of us.

Tomorrow I think you may be onto something. Perhaps a little more heat and the trough closer could trigger falls similar to what Horsham has had this evening. Still got tomorrow as a chance of getting something steady.

But really a fantastic start for the agricultural regions!!!

Now lets hope the catchments get some for the weekend!
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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Wed Jun 03, 2009 7:10 pm

Speaking of thunderstorms guys, we had one CG to our due north and thunder at about 6.30pm. So some of that Cu got away. It made me excited thats for sure, but nothing since, though in a way there is a risk tomorrow. The weekend is shining more of a chance for storms with another upper disturbance.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jun 04, 2009 5:13 am

Another 15-30mm across the west again overnight making things very soggy now. Signs of more convective showers moving into C VIC may mean Melbourne could get 5-10mm today.

Great rainfall for struggling towns out west.
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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Jun 04, 2009 11:52 am

Couple of nice cells showing up around central Vic ATM. Short lived but could be some small hail and heavy rain under the odd one.

Just 1.7mm to 9am this morning for us. Also, very mild night with a min of 11.0C.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jun 04, 2009 1:51 pm

Nice slow moving line of potential thunderstorms over Western Port Bay (Grantville to San Remo).

Otherwise looking mainly dry across Melbourne for this afternoon.

I do not like the way the weekend is shaping up Rolling Eyes
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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Jun 04, 2009 4:17 pm

Top score so far from those bands is 8mm at Frankston, but they are continuing so could see something in the 10-20mm range. The convergence behind these bands is slowly moving east, but with it now night-time they struggle to continue away from the bay.

Is very frustrating being a Melbournite ATM wth 7 weeks of let downs with all the action to the south or west. Hopefully our time will come.

BTW some very impressive weather ATM over Tassie. 102mm at Gray on the east coast to 9am and heavy falls continuing around Hobart (with widespread fog). Mt Wellington up to 62mm and has rained continuously for near 36 hours (and still going).

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Thu Jun 04, 2009 4:21 pm

Late postscript... curiously EC has the rain associated with the convection continuing through the night across Melbourne and into tomorrow arvo. It has picked the placement well - so maybe we could be in for a surprise from a lingering trough?

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  Anthony Violi on Thu Jun 04, 2009 5:00 pm

Certainly looks unstable atm DJ, and i noticed today that the activity had barely moved from this morning until 4pm this arvo, so i wouldnt think it would clear rapidly. Still talking up some showers tomorrow so i think you might be right, could still see something about the place tomorrow.
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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Jun 04, 2009 5:15 pm

I am not so confident. Going on past few days weather, things are not going to kick into gear at all. I saw this sky this afternoon and the convergence was more diurnally induced so I am holding little prospects tonight but maybe a rogue shower tomorrow morning and afternoon.

What a shame!! We cannot take a trick at this point.
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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Jun 04, 2009 6:04 pm

Well we had 14.2mm to 9am this morning in the gauge. Otherwise today has been mostly dry, and it really reminded me of the weather up in Cairns, minus the high humidity. This morning there was a line of Cu to our west, but it dissipated through the day actually to my dissapointment. Ah well, we have had some good rain from this event that really was great for some areas, but others missed completley out, although most got something. The lingering trough will trigger convective isolated showers tomorrow, contracting east with the disturbance, otherwise it will be mostly dry.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Jun 05, 2009 5:13 am

Well done Jake. Is amazing to see how the west which did so badly late last year/early this year has suddenly had a big turn around.

Another 0.2mm for us - one brief heavy shower at ~7pm. Predictably the showers moved through south Gippsland/Mornington.

Hopefully we squeeze a convective shower today - but looks pretty sparse to me.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Fri Jun 05, 2009 4:26 pm

Did you manage to get much this system DJ? ^^

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sat Jun 06, 2009 6:17 am

4.1mm in the end. Big fizzer.

Down in Sandy Point - south Gippsland ATM. Very wet down here with lots of puddles which suggests there must have been some locally heavy falls here - had 14mm in the gauge.

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Re: Victoria: Upper Trough/Rain Event June 1st - 5th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sat Jun 06, 2009 9:19 am

Thats just horrible. Their must be some rain soon for you guys.

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