Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

The atmosphere in SA is the best set up for tornado development that i have seen in a very, very long time.

Unbelievable, just sent shivers down my spine looking at that radar again. Maitland is going to cop it.

Guys and gals,

I have created a new thread for the goings on in SA. It is very much deserving of a seperate thread.

Sheep Graziers Warning just issued.

Warning to Sheep Graziers
for the Western, North Central, Northern Country, Wimmera, Mallee, Central, West and South Gippsland, East Gippsland and Northeast forecast districts.
Issued at 11:22 am EST on Monday 21 September 2009.



Sheep Graziers in all Victorian forecast districts are warned that rain, low temperatures and winds averaging up to 45 km/h are expected during Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a high risk of losses of lambs and sheep exposed to these conditions.

The next warning will be issued by 5:00 pm EST Monday.

Head down floyd - it will be worth it.

Very destructive thunderstorms moving through South Australia atm. And greg, I would have to agree, tornado development is not out of the question through those regions. Some nice rotation in some of those storms. And Adelaide is going to get smashed shortly, huge black core on the radar.

For Vic, severe thunderstorms should develop in the northwest over the coming 3 or so hours, before gradually developing in the Wimmera and Western districts mid-late afternoon.

And Floyd, I am with Karl, I would go mate! But, of course, its up to you. Very interesting day.

Sorry - Error with image
See charts posted by Powerstorm (Jake) on P7

Im going to be so upset if this eventuates when im inside all night... haha

Sorry - Error with image
See charts posted by Powerstorm (Jake) on P7

WOW at SA, some VERY impressive Storms forming over there unreal, so lucky, another massive band forming behind that to lucky buggers enjoy

The BOM Thunderstorm forecast for tomorrow is even more impressive talking about possible dangerous storms forming in the N and E.

This is a very strong system and great to see a huge week ahead, enjoy the warm sunny weather now, wont see it for at least another week

Lots of rain to come hoping the inland can really score this week they need a win 100mm in the NE and all Dams and Catchments would be great I would be happy to have no rain here if that could happen

Reckon 20mm for the week, Tomorrow Wednesday and Saturday looking the big days here

I cannot see the maps for the storm forecast Sniper... would you like me to post them up?

--------
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND
For people in parts of the
Mallee Forecast District.

Issued at 2:26 pm Monday, 21 September 2009.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Ouyen, Murrayville and Walpeup.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* secure any loose objects in the vicinity of your home.
* stay indoors if possible.
* Avoid using the phone during the storm.
* if you are outside, avoid sheltering under trees
* listen to the radio for storm updates
* switch off your computer and electrical appliances

The next warning is due to be issued by 5:30 pm.

Warnings are also available through TV and Radio broadcasts, the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 217. The Bureau and State Emergency Service would appreciate warnings being broadcast regularly.

Wouldnt mind being in Donald right now. Have a nice run North or south from there with the stuff coming over the border now...

Latest GFS has gone bananas for Murray River from Mildura to the NE, especially around Swan Hill. 100mm+ is over the top IMO.

Gee Adelaide is edging in on an inch already...

Wow at the thunderstorms in SA should bring heavy band of rain to Nw Vic later tonight easy 10mm in that some likley see 20mm in heavier cores

Hasn't been mentioned yet but WOW at S WA atm, that cloudband and impressive cold pool is rocketing E NE and is getting stronger and thicker should bring loads of cold air, rain and thunderstorms tomorrow across much of the SE

Looking good for light rain here tonight with Steady heavy falls and embedded thunderstorms Nw of a line Warrnambool Bendgio.

Tomorrow looking VERY interesting with the SA low to SA and that Impressive stuff in WA rotating around it gonna be a wet and wild one.

Thinking about driving to North Vic tomorrow could get some great storms up there but will wait till morning to see how it looks

Also nice pressure gradient 996 in Mildura with 70/km Ne winds 1007 in Clayton with 40km/h SE winds

Top of that line in SA will move in NW Vic around 6pm if it holds will bring very strong winds rain and hail though guess will weaken a bit by then

Here are the BoM thunderstorm charts that did not work earlier....

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 11:58 am Monday, 21 September 2009,
Valid until midnight on Monday, 21 September 2009.

A low pressure system and trough will move towards Victoria from the west with increasing cloud and instability. Thunderstorms will develop from the northwest during the afternoon and evening. However with low and mid-level winds increasing signifiantly during the late afternoon and evening, the chance of either storm organisation or damaging wind gusts also increases. It is likley a severe thunderstorm warning will be required for storms in the northwest in the next few hours.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

DAY 2 THUNDERSTORM FORECAST
Issued at 12:21 pm Monday, 21 September 2009,
Valid from midnight tonight until midnight on Tuesday, 22 September 2009.
A low pressure system and trough will move across Victoria with strong instability resulting. Thunderstorms are possible across all parts of the state as the moisture lift and instability is available. However the chance of severe thunderstorms occuring in the northwest in the early hours of the morning will extend across the north and to the east of the state by afternoon. Organised dangerous thunderstorm cells are possible with all phenomena possible, but damaging wind gusts will be the predominant phenomena to occur as winds aloft are strong.

Im working till 9:00pm tonight, will i miss much in Melbourne

Thanks for putting up those charts Power Storm, nice to see the storms primarily going to the northern and eastern areas as they could do with them the most due to the heavy rainfall they'll bring.

DarkEye wrote:Thanks for putting up those charts Power Storm, nice to see the storms primarily going to the northern and eastern areas as they could do with them the most due to the heavy rainfall they'll bring.

No probs mate. But I think thunderstorms are developing on the southern edge of the line as well, and I think we are still in for quite a good chance for thunderstorms tonight mate.

http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR642.loop.shtml

There is a tornado in the top right!!!!!!!!!

Mildura beware?

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Certainly looks like it! Will be interesting to here reports.

Hopefully our power supply stays intact tonight, looks like Kerang is in the path of something memorable for once, shall try to keep everyone updated. Just a little pre-storm sprinkle up here so far.

Gotta say that the event on our doorstep is one of the best I have ever seen forecast in the 5 years or so I have been following the models.

Not just is the event a multi day event, but it comes on the back of one of the wetter periods that the majority of the state has seen in a while. And to top it off it is falling at the right time of year, when we are actually meant to get events like this, and there is a good chance of another significant event over the weekend coming!

It's like Christmas come early.

Does look very severe, but could it be?

Here's what everyone is referring to.