Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

rather tropical here in Ballarat. Nice light show yesterday late afternoon. Out side it is just nudging 30, A mixture of high and mid level cloud, looks to be larger stuff to the north developing. I reckon more storms this afternoon.

Anthony Violi wrote:Low cloud trapped under the inversion find it very difficult to break through..plenty od Accas out west developing so should be an interesting arvo..

What will help us more, if anything, today will be the lack of wind will it not? Will this allow the clouds to structure themselves with more ease? Apologies if this question sounds a bit naive.

Remember Geelong being in cloud all day with thunderstorms extending from the NW late yesterday. The storms have to move SE for us here in Melbourne.

Andrew tomorrow if storms develop they will not need diurnal heating to keep going as they will be fed by the cold front and cooler drier air. No problems of them getting here, just have to develop.

Karl Lijnders wrote:Remember Geelong being in cloud all day with thunderstorms extending from the NW late yesterday. The storms have to move SE for us here in Melbourne.

Andrew tomorrow if storms develop they will not need diurnal heating to keep going as they will be fed by the cold front and cooler drier air. No problems of them getting here, just have to develop.

What are your thoughts on storm potential for today Karl?

Best chance today will be the trajectory coming in from the NW...as Karl said geelong was in cool conditions yesterday and was the first to cop it..still shrouded in low cloud here in fact its even increased rather than burnt off. Good convection on the visual to the west ahead of the showers coming in..

I think it is marginal for us. Forget surface based storms today, it will have to happen in the middle layers this afternoon.

I meant to say before that the storms tomorrow will be fed by the humid northwest winds and then the steep temp gradient coming in with cooler drier air on the change which will spark major convection.

Just have to avoid this mid level cloud band tomorrow or things could be dashed statewide.

Visual sat pic looks good but low cloud everwhere here still in SW winds.

BTW DJ, I have had 47mm here for the sequence. 3mm Thursday, 37mm Friday and 7mm last night.

Yeah, storms will be scattered tomorrow across the majority of the state regardless but if the front comes through a bit earlier we could really be in for a show. This time of year is notorious for severe squall lines moving across the state with cold fronts.

Change has come through here with a 2C temp drop and immediately the stratus floods in. ACCAS however to the NW. Hopefully the change washes out in the next few hours given it is only a very weak one, no significant increase of wind strength.

30C/18 now at Redesdale! Something has to give up there eventually.

And what about Mangalore, 33/16 Will be ballistic there this arvo...

Well there are some echoes near the E Grampians and some connected to that cloudmass in the SW.

The cloudband for tomorrow is starting to stand up in response to a cold pool winding up in the Bight which will tuck the cloudand in and force the stuff in the south of the state further south tomorrow so we should be OK now upon reflection.

Keep us updated up there guys!!! Any convection from Ballarat and further south is crucial for us and you are our eyes!!!

Karl Lijnders wrote:Remember Geelong being in cloud all day with thunderstorms extending from the NW late yesterday. The storms have to move SE for us here in Melbourne.

Andrew tomorrow if storms develop they will not need diurnal heating to keep going as they will be fed by the cold front and cooler drier air. No problems of them getting here, just have to develop.

It was bright sunshine in Geelong all day yesterday.. not sure who your source is saying that. First drops started at 5.55 pm.. and some of the storm cells dropped some massive amounts of water in short time and some small hail..

This morning was drizzle.. now only just starting to burn off with a little sunshine.

Oh I apologise - that was an assumption. Further towards the Surf Coast perhaps then was the cloudy and cooler conditions. Yes it looked to drop hail from this angle. The storm was enormous.

Here it is last night at about 7pm looking SW.

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Avalon and Geelong clearing. Temps rising steadily there. Confirmation of this??

Last night was fantastic! Was sitting in the car with my girfriend watching the lightning come in from the WNW from her place in Sunshine when she decided we should go for a drive towards it even though shes not a weather follower like me (god bless her soul) anyway we did drove up the Western ring road from Sunshine to Westfield shopping centre (In Airport West) and saw some incredible lightning alot of CC's but some CG's nearby too which shook us both especially her as she was worried that the car may be hit by lightning.... Actually anyone ever heard of a car being hit by lightning? Can't say I have but I'm sure its happend? Anyway we started driving back and as soon as we got on the Western ring road again near the Tulla Fwy to go home it come down in sheets it was so heavy the rain for 3 mins we could hardly see the road was water everywhere sheets of water on the ground was amazing 1st real proper storm chase then I told her in 2 mins it would stop (cos i had the phone and radar in my hand) she was driving and was scared couldnt see the road in bang in 2 mins the rain suddnely stoped and she blew a sigh of relief but was incredible could of easily had 5mm in that 2 to 3 min period it was just so heavy.
Then on the way home could see the storm moving towards the city and out East with plenty of lightning still in it and a downdraft ENE wind from it as well. For this side of town last nights storm was actually better than the night before even though the other one was more intense and widespread. Been a good few days.

Back here at home had bit over 3mm last night which takes me to 12mm since Friday which isn't to bad I guess.

Yeah no worries Karl.. actually there was some low coastal fog type cloud yesterday but more confined to the coast - looked like it was heading towards Geelong at about 5 pm then seemed to retract to the coast as those storms started to develop. Went for a small "chase" about 8 pm through Anakie then to Balliang, there was water over the road around Staughton Vale rushing off the Brisbane ranges.. and what a great light show. Reports of 5 - 10 mm locally from those storms.

Can confirm some more sunshine here to the west of geelong.. not hot yet though.

Very rarely do you see Mt Dandenong with a higher max than the CBD!

By the way talking about chasing, I was in the city last night and I decided to head toward St Kilda beach as the storm was coming in. The lightning was amazing and we got bucketed on for about 5-10 mins (would have been red on the radar). I was hoping to get to the beach in time to watch the lightning but it came and went quite quickly (got bad information from my dad monitoring the radar at home!)...still good anyway quite exciting, although not as exciting as Friday nights light show (at some stage there I thought I'd be calling my car insurer in the morning!)

Overcast and low cloud here all day so far, light southerly. Temp just 16.4c and steady we may not even reach 18c here today. 1.4mm's from that weak storm last night.

Gee those showers in the west are coming in quite quickly

There should be some showers near Jake's area about now...blazing sun here and its extremely oppressive, still stratus about and loads of Accas, wish i could see the western sky but shrouded in low cloud still...

In and out of stratus here, clear north of the ranges of course. Went for a quick drive, not much happening to the north of the ranges in terms of surface convection, saw one Cu developing to the NE but plenty in the way of ACCAS right across the north central areas so I would expect something to develop not too far to the north. Also some ACCAS around here but the temp now stuck on 21C, not budging at all with the southerlies so we'd have to get something coming down from a fair way NW.

Yep its nearly here Anthony.

Melbourne Skywalker wrote:

stormysky wrote:a house has been struck by lightning in Taylors Lakes and as a 2m by 2m hole in the roof

Thought I heard sirens before during the storm. Scary stuff, thats just down the road from here.

Anyways thats it for me tonight.

Saw those 2 CG's you can tell the went right to the ground and hit something.. 1st one to my west as the storm approched towards Taylors Lakes way and 2nd one on the way back home as we entered the Western ring road went all the way to the ground to our NNE which was Broadmedows way and only looked 3 to 5 ks away

My brother lives in that area and reported very explosive thunder a few times last night while entertaining guests outside.

hey all, first post here. After our first attempt at chasing on Friday (me and Sniper) we called it a night but I was woken by thunder and lightning in Greensborough at 1am. This shot was off our balcony at 1.30am 31/10/09 and is my first ever lighning shot. I cant wait to do it again! haha

Karl Lijnders wrote:My brother lives in that area and reported very explosive thunder a few times last night while entertaining guests outside.

Sounds like he did a good job at entertaining the guests lol

Anthony Violi wrote:And they still havent changed the forecast for tomorrow

Should go off tomorrow afternoon and evening..anyone have a visual on developments to the west?

I agree mate as long as the moisture sticks with us it should go boom crash bang tomorrow night and who knows it could be the best of the lot.

Not sure about today mabye something towards the ranges N and E of melbourne but don't like our chances in melbourne itself. Had light southerly here this morning and freshened up fair bit since Midday and still hovering around 17-18c around here

Nice work Joeby!! Welcome aboard

Hope you can get some more before the long weekend is out!!!

Interesting that the winds are nearly calm down on the southern end of the bay, tending WNW over Cerebus, back to the W at Viewbank and warming slowly from the northeast.