Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009

More storms tomorrow, are you sure this is Melbourne

Cloud starting to break up here (lower cloud) plenty of accas above and sun starting to come through it all

Karl Lijnders wrote:Nice work Joeby!! Welcome aboard

Hope you can get some more before the long weekend is out!!!

Interesting that the winds are nearly calm down on the southern end of the bay, tending WNW over Cerebus, back to the W at Viewbank and warming slowly from the northeast.

Thanks Karl, ya hoping for some more action over the weekend, fingers crossed

Nice pic for your first one Joeby and some awesome pics being put up here. It's very misty here in the hills, it started off like that this morning then cleared and now it's back Our home didn't sell at auction yesterday, so glad in the end it didn't, I love it too much up here

So I take it your staying again for another year??

Got some weak sunshine here presently.

Interesting that there is almost a rain area coming into the west. I wonder if it is all hitting the ground??

I don't know we may end up staying here. I'm hoping that this summer is a bit wetter than the one we had this year. I mean I'm assuming that El Nino is giving us this humid, stormy weather from what I have garnered on the forum and that it may continue into summer. Is that a pipedream? These peacocks strutted into our garden on Friday and were still there for the auction much to the delight of people
http://www.redbubble.com/people/rivergirl/journal/4031953-two-beautiful-visitors-today

So are we over the average rainfall for October Karl? From what I read recently on the forum I don't think we would be

Mostly virga with that stuff that just went over Karl. But looking further west on radar there does seem to be more patchier stuff coming in.

Also, in the midst of editing my video from Friday nights storms that went over us.

It was above and below average in parts Robyn, very tight rainfall gradients about.

Had just on average rainfall here thanks to the storm on Friday night.

NE winds developing down at Rhyll and back to NW winds up high.

Hoping then that the cloud passes S of VIC then if it is producing nothing.

Weird day cos at the moment SW winds are quite firm through the Northern country at the moment

Lots of heavy storms over the far NE at the moment. SW winds may be inhibitting things a bit closer into Melbourne. Clearing skies here and near 20C now. Will be a late maximum. Would like it to clear so I can get a look at the sky before dusk.

All the low cloud has gone here Karl.. You still got some? lots of high cloud here to My west and some accas about the odd knuckley one too and that was actually to the WSW.

The lighter winds here may be more to do with the weak high over us (Over Southern Vic or Bass straight) now as the trough stalls over Northern Victoria (while weakening) ahead of the next system tomorrow as the 4 day Bom chart shows this tomorrow morning

The low cloud is clearing here and the sun is half out, can see blue sky in spots

Just clearing through now.

Looking like 33C tomorrow is about right. May go 35C dependant upon cloud.

Opposite happening here to what you guys are reporting in Melbourne. Low cloud has flooded in again after being on and off all afternoon, this time though it has lowered and the mist has come back, temperature has plummeted to 16.8C. Somehow I think storm chances are off here now.

All fingers crossed for tomorrow. Could be temperatures into the mid 30s in Melbourne. Surely that will spark something off particularly as the front comes through. Only problem is there is some slightly drier air through in the morning but by the look of things more humid air as the front approaches.

Any chanc of some drizzle tonight? Temperatures will get relatively low before midnight IMO and the air will become saturated. After that hot air floods back in.

Well MLAPS wants to give us some morning rain from middle level cloud and then has a a signifcant line of thunderstorms moving through tomorrow night ~8-11pm with 10-20mm across central regions around Melbourne so it could be rather productive.

Winds shifting back to the NW here but no convection to speak of. May get some isolated thunder from mid level activity overnight so that needs to be watched. Otherwise we are not far off a warning for the NE currently.

I am suspecting that we will get a few mm around by dawn tomorrow with some middle level showers.

Gee the Yarrawonga radar is exploding!

It's dried right out up there. Yarrawonga is 38C/7 now so only cells developing over or moving over Albury and further east have the potential to get going (where DPs are still 16C)

All of the days in the sequence tomorrow is the most explosive simply because the lifting mechanism will be the greatest..looks like somewhere between 8pm and midnight for Central areas again. Hopefully not too much drying out through the morning, though the air to our Nw is still humid..

Anthony Violi wrote:All of the days in the sequence tomorrow is the most explosive simply because the lifting mechanism will be the greatest..looks like somewhere between 8pm and midnight for Central areas again. Hopefully not too much drying out through the morning, though the air to our Nw is still humid..

Will be windy tomorrow though and NW is not as humid as NE is it? Will these factors hamper convection and development?

I am still expecting some fireworks though as the squall line moves in but it will be moving very fast I would say, similar to some of the storms we had late August and early September (with more energy).

I have a feeling a couple of hours of cloud and morning showers may help prevent the drying out and mixing down of strong northerly winds. Late maximum and steep temp gradient may help us.

Note that the advection of thunderstorms due south, east of Adelaide in the troughline. Also some storms developing near Ceduna.

A little rain continuing in the SW.

Can see towers to my far NE.

Coolest place in the state atm 16C at Portland followed by 17C at Melbourne Airport and Geelong.

16.5C here.

Models still indicating double figure DPs tomorrow so I don't see a huge problem there. Main activity will be with the front though. I wouldn't expect a great deal before it comes through.

Yeah but 38c and 7c Dp's is similar to me of 30c and 14/15c Dp's IMO so even if Dp's drops below 10c late tomorrow afternoon at some stage as long as the temp is 35 or 36c which I give a shot at if there isn't to much cloud around earlier then thats as good to me IMO

Karl Lijnders wrote:I have a feeling a couple of hours of cloud and morning showers may help prevent the drying out and mixing down of strong northerly winds. Late maximum and steep temp gradient may help us.

Ditto. Exactly what I was going to say. It should be explosive ahead and with the front, I'm not worried, in fact I am certain we will get thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon/evening in my area. And yes, I expect severe activity too, particularly damaging winds from thunderstorms nearest the front. Over the eastern ranges flash flooding will be the biggest concern, however all severe phenonema are possible within any severe storm.

My point is even at Dp's of around 10c with those sort of temps ahead of a strong front/trough it should still take off well and truly with those type of temps we don't need Dp's of 17c be extremely oppressive anyway and doesn't happen that often anyway anywhere in Australia of 38c Dp's 17c anyway