Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

still hovering at 25degs, we won't get a storm here. It'll be a weak rain band around 2am

Actually fairhaven is the best cam...lightning galore!!

Just need the trough to edge closer and we should start to see some action on the Central ranges..

Some heavy rain and wind just passing through here now, would that be the cool change or not and what else should I see tonight?

Activity er-developing around Echuca which should increase and develop further south. I'm not going to bed without a nice light show!!

It's very painful waiting for this to form and hit, I will be very disappointed if it chooses not to form.

Some nice CG and CC's across the bay, some distant thunder aswell

Same here. I'm sad that some the heaviest falls are falling in the ocean! Just hope the line further up will gain momentum and blanket the greater Melbourne area later on.

rainning heavy now! what a light show.

I think it's going to be a late one..

Our third thunderstorm for today, just then, amazing! Once again, constant lightning, mostly CC and CA again however a lot more CG than the last line and so many flangs in this storm! Absolutley wonderful day and night.

Radar indicating some other cells developing through the bay region of Melbourne atm, with the best storms moving towards Cape Otway and out to sea. Also some good cells in the N atm.

This next line approaching me (the actual wind change this time) could shed in a few more bolts, but most of the action for here is gone, apart from the moderate rain that will hit me in the next hour or so. Still think storms will develop on the change tonight, maybe I will be proven wrong.

So, 4 storms so far for the season, 1 Friday afternoon and 3 today... can it get any better!

Looks like we hit the max number of posts for one thread, so it started another.... Or is it something else?

The band extends right up to Whyalla in South Australia, so fingers crossed it stays together and intensifies. Could still get some nice falls.

Thanks Admin I just saw this happen and wondered if it was because we had made the maximum posts for a topic.

Reckon it has been programmed to do it. Karl has probably set it up this way to avoid super long threads and to make info easier to find for an event. That's what I reckon anyway. Not a bad idea IMO.

Now, back to tonight's weather. I've tried very hard to convince myself that there would be something worthwhile here but all the time in the back of my mind I haven't been confident. I really can't see much happening now away from the coast and bay, sky outside is as stable as you like with almost cloudless skies. Even as little as an hour ago we at least had some weak convection happening although decaying to fractus very quickly. I reckon I've seen enough and that we're close enough to the front to suggest that it's not really a goer for here now. Melbourne area particularly eastern suburbs I still reckon are in with a shot for a decent band of storms and rain but up here, from experience and what I see happening it jsut doesn't look good.

Not writing it off though, there is still plenty of time before the front passes through and the radar still indicates showers trying to form ahead of the front into central areas by the looks of things but I've more or less firmly switched into disappointment mode now and if anything does form here it will be a welcome surprise. Best way to look at it I guess.

SW winds came roaring through anout an hour ago here hardly any cloud even when it came through. I see the main rainband is still way back near the border. so it must be a trough or something. Anyhow dunno about getting much out of this up here. IMO it looks to be fizzling as it is coming across(well inland anyway). Not that it worries me.

I to have been saying it all day I don't expect anything better than what we got on Saturday if indeed we get that.
Was so hot up north and dry depth of moist air wasn't great to north and trough moving though at night so storms are all dynamic driven still get good ones but nothing huge.

Will be a nice band of rain with few mms in it and still got another few hours of Showers and Strom's to pop up around the place but only small ones, still think we will see something just not as great as many were expecting

Sw, Surf Coast, Ne, Gippy, doing ok with solid storms around

Cool change though the Nw temps dropped from mid 30s to low 20s and gusty winds will be a lot cooler come day break here

havent written it off yet, but i am getting closer to it, ever second

all seems to be going to the coast and not penetrating far as here even, moon is out brightly

possibly something with the main band but its not lightning active, so unless it does something as it goes through....

We've got a chance now, something is organising around Ballarat area...we just need it to form!

Well, I'm off for bed. Had a great day, 3 storms, will be dreaming tonight! Also nearly time for the rain to develop here, so goodnight! Best of luck too for more storms. Wonthaggi copping it now and possibly a bit of a line of storms developing through the bay. I'd also watch just NW of Melbourne near Ballarat for you guys ahead of that main line, its your best bet.

If the trough moves through Mt Dandenong at 26/11 surely that will be enough for some action.

Big CGs to my S quite impressive for so far away, can also see the south gippy cells quite well to flashing away nicely

Lots of strobing visible from the Wonthaggi cell from my place (had to climb a ladder though ). Massive structure covering a lot of area from what I can see.

Also been watching the cell that's just gone through Mansfield firing up.

Both sets of cells are a long way away but still putting on a great show.

Rog.

I can see lightning action from the cell up at Mansfield...very nice, can see the outlines of the clouds

Essendon Airport up from 23.6 to 27.6 in last 20 minutes...

Coldstream 18 to 23.7 in about 10 minutes!

Greetings from Mansfield were we've just been blown away by a massive rogue cell for the last half hour . Distant thunder was quickly replaced by booming flangs, crawlers galore, benders, CGs, CCs, and a moonlit sky which is silouetting the cell showing its beautiful structure. Fast moving but frequent spectaular lightening every few seconds for 30 minutes or so and now lighting up Mt Buller every few moments in the distance. The heavy rain lasted only a few minutes but the rain shaft under the core looked dense when lit up

Best storm in recent years for me. We missed Friday's action up here so was most welcome.
Looks like more intensifying to our NW. Great reading all the reports. Great to have interesting weather.

B

that's it I am officially writing this one off - I was going to lay some mulch this afternoon to replace the stuff that got washed away on friday night but was worried this may occur again tonight,

Looking at the main band and it;s size and intesity we are barley gonna get something close to saturday here in the burbs,

off to bed - gotta lay some mulch tommorrow morning now!!!!

Looks like Mansfield is about to get hit again!!!!