Victoria: Thunderstorm Outbreak. October 28th-November 3rd 2009 #2

This is all but over, if you stand outside and feel the temp go from about 18 to 25 in a matter of a few minutes you get the feeling something may happen

YES! Echoes are forming around Laverton, always a good sign!!!

Heavy winds in Moorabbin passed through just before. Feels a little cooler too.

Dopplar radar showing the SW change going thru, which is what you have experienced Bobman.
Fair to say now that this night is a fizzer. Might get a few drops around 5am with a band currently around Warrnambool.

Sniper wrote:Dopplar radar showing the SW change going thru, which is what you have experienced Bobman.

The change already? Wasn't it supposed to hit the city at 3am?

I don't think it is the predicted change, moreso a wave of SW winds, which are clearly identified on the Doppler radar.

Sniper wrote:I don't think it is the predicted change, moreso a wave of SW winds, which are clearly identified on the Doppler radar.

Oh ok, that makes sense...it is helping convection through Kinglake area at the moment.

It was never going to come off. I think the storms from the last few days got everyone a bit over enthusiastic to be honest. Very warm upper levels plus the front coming through in the middle of the night with no incoming solar radiation are the two factors that have killed it IMHO. This front is actually pretty weak along the scale of November cold fronts so without heating and poor upper level support it's just not going to happen for us. In these setups with a stack of heat and moisture but very poor lapse rates with warm upper levels and lack of a significant trigger it seems that isolated areas can get lucky with some big storms but 99% of places get nothing and in many cases not even a puff of Cu. Aside from a brief period Saturday night when we had two storms through I don't actually recall seeing any surface based convection at all and just weak middle level convection at times.

Next chance for rain could be a long way away. Starting to sound very familiar now as we head back into high pressure dominance and heat just in time for summer. I can't see any rain now for the next 2 weeks and most places got very little if anything from the last 4 days.

Winds on the increase in the last 5-10 minutes.
Wanting to stay up for an hour, but watching the Aussies getting slapped around by India is making me sleeeeepy.

Oh please it is not over yet. And to say everyone got over enthusiastic is a bit rich. Still a phenomenal amount of lightning activity and everything pointed to it happening and as stated, not everyone was going to get it. Glad I have my 50mm in the account.

Still the odd flash of lightning out of cells in the middle of the bay. I suspect thunderstorms may develop after the first wave of SW winds have gone through.

Was 28C here before!!

I'm still thinking we can get something, always an optimist haha. It's definitely unstable

Damn you Karl, going off last 2 radar frames, you might be right.......again
Seems like that wave of SW winds have injected some more instability.

Experiencing strongest gusts for a while!!!

Totally agree Andrew I was never excited about today thought might get something like Saturday but no explosive day with massive storms few good ones around Ne SW and gippy but that's it.
WAY to dry up north and over 40c heat been ingested into system, warm and dryish uppers, very late timing, upper trough way back and not that strong wasn't gonna be massive at all
With all the talk thought might get to Saturday but no and not surprised

Still might get some rumbles and few mms of rain with rain band and any showers that pop ahead of it but nothing amazing.

It was close though big stroms missing the city by about 100km or so and there were about 3 or 4 BIG storms but yeah just another summer change in my eyes.

Good 4 days though and looking Dry for another 7 to ten days after this moves though, cooler for few days then back to few days of 30s.

SUMMER IS HERE

These systems are not as simple as a yes or no to development. It takes more than just what we think to be normal or how it should go. Patience. Once the system is to the east and is over and we get nothing then call it a fizzer or whatever. It is all relative in the end.

Had big drops out of a glaciating CB over head. Lots of towers rising in the moonlight. Looking like our window of opportunity has arrived with many in bed.

It astounds me how critcal everyone has been in the last few pages.. and yet it is not over.

Just had some heavy spits of rain here about 5 mins ago

just got back from Barwon Heads. Great spectacle, could see all the cells firing away on all cylinders. Wasn't close enough for me to pull my camera out, but who cares, another night, another show;) Along the way found a great spot on North Shore, Geelong for future reference. Refinery reflections, still water, and a cracking cg in the frame perhaps, a nice storm salad that had the main ingredient missing.

Who knows, could get a direct hit this time from the band coming though.

Karl Lijnders wrote:These systems are not as simple as a yes or no to development. It takes more than just what we think to be normal or how it should go. Patience. Once the system is to the east and is over and we get nothing then call it a fizzer or whatever. It is all relative in the end.

Had big drops out of a glaciating CB over head. Lots of towers rising in the moonlight. Looking like our window of opportunity has arrived with many in bed.

It astounds me how critcal everyone has been in the last few pages.. and yet it is not over.

Yeah it is a very dynamic set up, I am just sitting and waiting, I have faith in our weather lately, the pattern and humidity is definitely in the zone at the moment.

It was an amazing spectacle. I think the trick is to get out and enjoy it Loved this whole 5 day sequence. Been so exciting to talk about weather for once that I am glad it is coming to end so I don't take it for granted.

Some amazing CGs tonight from the Wonthaggi cell which lit up like a 'brain' initially as it was developing an anvil and then really went nuts with CCs every second and CGs every five seconds or so. The cell to the NE was very lightning active with clear view from here ~200km away!!!

Just spotted a CC towards the bay
Oh and the SW winds came through here at 0020hrs at about 35kts. Dropped the temp from 28 to 21C

That wouldn't be something building near Macedon would it?

Just realised it was the SW winds...smashed us here in Lilydale at about the same time, so is that the change?

Not many awake or ppl out chasing? I think it's going to be too late for me, anyone staying up?

I'm awake but about to go to bed, i am almost ready to write this one off.....cant keep saying, tommorow it will happen and all that....its just not happening and will be through shortly and on its way, not expecting much more

I am, not for the storms or rain but exam study

Gusty SW change through here about an hour ago expect some rain in few hours when that thin band makes it here only few showers with it though

Might also get a shower or to with the odd rumble ahead of it but nothing major I feel

Yeah it is over I guess for the convective part. Might see 2-5mm with the rain and showers. Some isolated thunder in that possible but should be through by dawn.

Not a huge amount left over the east, but some showers and storms there.

It is a wrap on this convective baby for Melbourne!! What a past 5 days!!!

raainband moving through melbourne metro now, very avaerage to say the least - if you blink youll miss it.

Enjoy the holiday everyone after the past couple of days we all need one!

15mm here. Oops slipped. 1.5mm here.