Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Looks like there could be a good follow up system for later this week, EC going for around 40mm for my area Thur-Fri with possibly more over the weekend, and OCF giving 35mm Thur-Fri. Looking at tonights model runs with abit more interest.

Rhino.

Yeah from what I can see from GFS the warmth will be coming down from SE Qld, Northern NSW this time, so generally more tropical (we can hope anyway!), because it has been quite dry up there in the past week.

I think BOM is underestimating at this stage and I am tipping Thursday will be a hot one and could finish with a big line of storms.

Good work Rhino.

OCF in particular has been locked on Thurs/Fri for decent falls. GFS has danced around the subject for the last 2 days. Completely removing it from calculations and then forecasting 50-75mm in the NW Central areas, similar to this weekend' event. As Andrew has mentioned, it appears that this will be a more unsettled event with storms, especially on Thursday. Still a long way before we can accurate assess what will occur.

Latest EC going ballistic with around 85mm forecast for Melbourne Thursday to Monday with a massive low bombing very close to VIC.

Around that for my area as well so widespread again in central areas. Of course it is a big ask this far out to expect a massive low to bomb out of nowhere like EC has but the ingredients are certainly there. Another very warm and humid air mass, tropical air mass basically over the state and then meeting up with a substantial sharp upper trough from the west with quite cold air behind it. The bay and local waters are not going to suddenly cool down in less than a week and should still remain very warm. So as one event finishes we look towards another, possibly even better system at this very early stage. Quite incredible really.

Yes EC recycles the Upper low back down to the SE towards Victoria on Thursday and Friday ahead of another sharp Upper trough and possible cut off low in the vicinity of Victoria coming in from the Bight later Friday into Saturday.

Latest GFS has 50-100mm most of the South and EC has 85mm for Melbourne for those days that Andrew mentioned. GFS has very little in the North but personally I think the whole state will get another drink.

Not sure about these figures though that both EC and GFS project but perhaps 20-50mm may be bit more tamed and balanced but after this weekends effort anything is possible.

Certainly is looking like we could be in for another wild end to the week! Models chucking out totals of up to 100mm for parts of the state from Thursday. Both EC and GFS hinting at widespread falls though, so its good to see both models on to something at least.

I expect Thursday to be quite an unsettled day with afternoon showers and thunderstorms if everything plays out right. Quite a strong region of low pressure over the state and instability should be around -2 or -3, as well as a very moist atmosphere ahead of the systems. I also suspect Thursday would be the day for severe thunderstorm activity at this stage. The only thing that may put a downer on the thunderstorm development would be the increasing cloud cover ahead of the systems. Any breaks in it though and things should go off.

Friday is looking like rain areas across the state to me with embedded thunderstorm activity.

Saturday very similar however I think we will go back into a WNW flow, so only a little patchy rain across the state, better in the east before things re-intensify late Saturday into Sunday from the west with further rain areas; then finally easing from the west Sunday.

Thats how I see it at this stage anyway.

EC has up to 101mm here for weeks end with 40mm Friday and 50mm Saturday. Yes please!!!!

If the latest EC comes off we'll have floods next weekend. That's almost the perfect storm for central areas and with a hot hot bay it would deliver buckets. Probably means we'll see a downgrade, but even so should be a hefty follow-up.

GFS has LI at -5 for Melb and eastern suburbs on Friday at 5pm! CAPE 1600 and looks as though a low pressure trough will be moving through at similar time. Could be some real fireworks if it comes off.

Yes and with high moisture levels, there will be some quite sizeable low based thunderstorms about at this time with current prognosis. I think with the higher moisture through the entire atmosphere late week, we could be in for more thundery rainfall that individual thunderstorms, but they will still pack a punch at this stage.

Latest US has 50mm+ for Melbourne still which is very useful.

GFS has changed the synoptic pattern slightly with more 'troughiness' and the low further south, progged rainfall totals remain very similar though. Of course models will chop and change continuously with a complex pattern like this one.

Usual downgrades from GFS & EC, but no need to be concerned. EC looks at more a weekend event with falls up to 40mm. GFS sticks with good -LI's on Thursday and Friday so it is holding.

Should be a nice day today

Plenty of good signs for this week with the moisture not to far off and the trough line retrograding west and then diving south.

Latest US has pulled back in it's half run but really underestimated the rainfall in the last system right up until the last day literally and came onboard as it was falling!!

JMA has 40-80mm across the central and eastern half of the state with central areas looking to cop it again.

EC has halved rainfall for central areas but again, has 40-70mm for the region which is nothing to sneeze at. If it can hold a little longer then it will be on.

What I like about the satellite image is that the cloud and moisture is very slow to move with thick high cloud over us today. We may see showers develop about the northern border tomorrow with thunderstorms developing on Wednesday and extending south to the dividing ranges.

Thursday will be very unsettled during the afternoon with all that activity tending to rain periods and persisting into Friday and perhaps Saturday.

A flood watch has been issued for Nth SA with this system. Looks very very dynamic and as you say Karl, slow moving. GFS still bullish for storms on Thursday. Enjoy the mild to wartm and sunny 3 days ahead as Thurs-Sun could be a little wet

Adelaide Forecast
Issued at 11:40 am CDT on Monday 23 November 2009

Warning Summary
Nil.

Forecast for Monday
A fine, mild and sunny day. Light to moderate southwest to southeast winds,
fresh about the coast in the afternoon and early evening.

Precis Fine. Sunny.
City: Max 23
Elizabeth: Max 23
Mount Barker: Max 20
Noarlunga: Max 22

UV Alert: 9:20 am to 4:40 pm, UV Index predicted to reach 9 [Very High]
Fire Danger: Low to Moderate (Mount Lofty Ranges Fire Ban District)

Forecast for Tuesday
Fine and mostly sunny. Mild to warm with light to moderate southeast to
southwest winds.

Precis Fine. Mostly sunny.
City: Min 14 Max 23

Wednesday Evening shower. Min 16 Max 30
Thursday Rain periods easing. Min 19 Max 26
Friday Showers/Possible thunderstorm. Min 18 Max 27
Saturday A few showers, easing. Min 16 Max 25
Sunday Morning shower. Min 14 Max 23

Despite being 3 days out, Thursday looks like a lock for thunderstorm activity, especially western areas of Victoria. The latest GFS run is out and looking at the extended GFS this morning, it is placing the low a bit too far south for really big falls. The current placement has it hitting the west coast of Tassie between the eyes.

Lots of time to go

Remember US was late on the scene last system. Looks very similar to this time last week.

It may be a bit more of a complex scenario this time than last time but with a stack of moisture still hanging around I can't see a fizzer for this one, it looks pretty good.

GFS and EC pretty much agreeing on 30-40mm for here at this stage and looks similar across central areas and most of the state. Thursday and Saturday are the key days for rainfall activity. Thursday will be very stormy as a small upper level feature moves across the state from the NW and interacts with warm and very humid air.

I am looking forward to Thursday already, it promises to be a cracker of a day.

Latest Bom notes...


Explanatory Notes

A ridge of high pressure extends from a high centre over the Bight to another
centre developing off the lower New South Wales coast, and is producing fine,
settled weather over Victoria and mild conditions. A trough of low pressure
through inland eastern Australia is producing some high cloud over northern and
eastern Victoria.

The ridge of high pressure will persist across southern Victoria during the next
day or so with the high off New South Wales becoming dominant by Wednesday. This
will allow winds to tend warmer northerly by mid week. The trough over inland
eastern Australia will cause heavy rain over east central Australia during this
time.

Late in the week the inland trough will move southwards with showers and
isolated thunderstorms spreading into Victoria. Conditions will initially remain
quite warm since this air will have originated over central Australia.

By the weekend a cold front is likely to interact with the trough causing a low
to form near Victoria. The low is likely to be slow moving near the State
through the weekend with showers, local thunderstorms and areas of rain likely
over much of the State at times. Conditions will become cooler due to widespread
cloud and colder air arriving with the cold front.

|

A colleague of mine is getting married on Saturday, she won't be happy with the rainy day!

Actually a good chance of storms on all days from Thursday to Sunday just looking at GFS. Sunday looks pretty borderline for west central but still a chance. That's the one thing we didn't get on the weekend, storms, so a bit in it for everyone from Thursday.

Yes, Thursday in my opinion is still looking good for thunderstorm activity. Depending on cloud cover, some good thunderstorms should develop and this would be the day to watch for severe activity associated with the low pressure feature moving in from the WNW. Friday looks similar. From Saturday, thunderstorm activity should be mostly cold-air type.

Amazing mass of cloud all up Eastern Australia.

yes I am wondering if this cloud will be staying around and so therefore possible storms popping up tomorrow?