Victoria: Cold Outbreak. Series of Strong Cold Fronts. August 23rd - 28th 2009

There appears to be a disturbance north of Mildura (on the Satpic). It is spawning cloud but not rain. There was some isolated activity pushing into NE Vic but it has since dissipated. Winds on the increase down in the South West as are the rain totals (ever so slowly). As Karl mentioned, expecting this lull to cease around 3am.

I'm liking this lull, nice and calm. So sick of the winds. If it's going to be windy, at least have some decent falls so I can put up with it.

Will be hoping to get 10mm for the week, pretty mild atm 16C.

Certainly is mild during these benign conditions Floyd. A bit of pre-frontal virga appearing on radar now. Low really cranking up now, down to 957hPa central pressure. Melbourne just dipped under 1000hPa.

Winds picked up in the last half hour. 30kts @ Mt D and Airport.

I expect those winds to increase again later this morning with a bit of heating and get quite squally during the aftenoon.

Rain developed to our east which is a theme of the past few fronts. Showers should develop later this morning with the chance of some thunderstorms.

Suppose get ready for a mean guster to come over the bay. Black as dogs in the west locally here and looks mean!!!

Looks like the wind change is just west of Melbourne ATM sitting close to the line of showers. The showers look to be firing up so might get a few mm's out of this - though with holes in the band you could also get diddly squat. Look forward to getting off the train and having a good look at the structure
More thoughts on this system later..

That line looks awesome from my place, really dark with a slight bit of greenish.

yeah it was showing a tinge of green back here. But no suprise if is showing greenage there. Have had a good dumpage of rain from it, pretty moderate to heavy rain as well

Getting very dark here with winds shifting W. Can smell rain on the change.

well have woke to 4mm this morning and with that i have the monthly average. WInds seem to be starting to fire up again right now. an its about to rain again

Had 3mm's of rain but now easing off, temp down to 9.7c.

We have had the 1st of the troughs/fronts come through this morning i got some rain from the tail end of that front.
I think there will be another period of rain later today with showers inbetween will be windy but personally I don't think will be quite as windy as last week though it shouldn't be to far off. Another good front tomorrow could produce another good burst of rain. I think EC is understimating this event hence the BOM forecasts for Melbourne. UKMet/JMA/GFS look wetter.

0.2mm for Trentham - winds have just started to shift, now WNW 38kmh gusting to 60kmh, pressure 999.6hPa. Shower just through Abbotsford...

If I get 10-15mm the next 72 hours I would say that is satisfactory for my area given the set up is W or WSW most the time. Got my first mm.

Was raining in the city this morning at 8am, but nothing too exciting.

Jase

Pouring here. Looking promising off the western ranges. Maybe a few more mm to come.

Well done Jane on a good weekend. Heard great reports.

Very disappointing for us in Yea over the weekend. A total of 2.5mm when predictions were 10 to 20mm! I hope this system brings some better results.

Latest EC has a second change (would guess frontogenesis back in the cold air field) pushing through central areas around 10pm tonight with a good burst of rain. There is then a third front late tomorrow.

These both look rather promising - wouldn't be surprised to see ~5-10mm from both across most areas. Also watch for some stray heavy showers in unstable NW flow today with hail and thunder.

Very good shower here. Rainrates of 60mmhr or so.

Agree Johnoo and DJ, could be a good period of rain/showers later on. Unstable today and heavy showers streaming through, all be it at a rate of knots. Need the trajectory to change slightly..

Some hefty coldies well offshore to the SW. A sign of what will move across the state mainly in the south later.

Yeah DJ looks like EC has followed the UKMet script with another burst of rain later today or this evening UK been showing this past few runs its shown on the sat pic with that blob of cold air approaching Adelaide coming through as a frontal boundary

This sort of set up has all the hall marks of cold air thunderstorms with EF0-1 tornadoes in both SA and VIC. Complete impossible for Dopplar to pic up rotation in some areas due to low height of some of these storms, unless they are up close and personal.

PS, i apologize for not being for the past few weeks, been in nz and as soon as i got back, was playing a big part in the ASWA conference.
Time to unwind and relax and enjoy the show;)

Clyve's outlook for the central ranges for the next couple of days below - yes I'm excited - even though I'm wondering how I'll keep my eyes open tonight....

"DAILY WEATHER EXPECTATIONS.

MONDAY 24/8/09.
Showers and windy, showers becoming more frequent through the day and a risk of hail and thunder, squally northwest winds, patchy hill mist at times. Showers may turn to sleet and snow overnight across the higher regions. MIN TEMPS 5 to 7c. MAX TEMPS 8 to 10c lowering to nearer 2 to 4c later in the day.

TUESDAY 25/8/09.
Cold and showery with gusty northwest or west winds, local hail/sleet and snow, snow showers mainly higher areas and most likely in the morning, light frost early in sheltered localities. A few sunny breaks at times. MIN TEMPS 0 to +2c MAX TEMPS 5 to 7c."

rest here... http://www.stormchasers.au.com/currentcr.htm