Victoria: Rain and Thunderstorm event - August 28th to 31st 2009

Have had a few showers on and off this afternoon with another 2mm so a total of 5.5mm for this event. From now on I will expect rain when I least expect it as from my experience that's when it does rain!

Possibly the best single day's rain for the year! Sorry to say that,for those that have missed out, but we had 11 mm to 9 am and another 4 - 5 mm since with a good burst at around 5 tonight.. currently another shower going through.

August is now my wettest for the year with 64 mm and year to date now up to 205 mm!

Another good burst of rain gone through, and yet another front to come through during the night..5mm from each and we will get there the hard way..

11mm's here since 9am making a total of nearly 14mm's from this event, now up to 76mm's for the month which is above average, at last.

10.6mm last time I checked for overnight and today but only 3.9mm of that fell after 9am.

Now as the wind goes W and due to swing SW overnight we are well out of the picture here. Good thing we have had such a good month here and didn't need to rely on this particular system too much, remember the models were going for 20-30mm on the ranges. Most disappointing for me was there was no real weather to watch, just weak bands of light to moderate showers for periods. No thunder, hail or heavy bursts of rain.

I expect tomorrow to be mostly fine here and sunny. Slight risk of a brief shower or two.

Currently watching the cold air creep across the state...Mt William is down to 0.3C and Trentham is falling slowly also 5.5C now.....make that 5.4C...actually it's 5.3C with a shower going through...damn I'll just start a countdown with the times shall I ?
8.47pm: 5.2C
8.49pm: 5.0C
8.50pm: 4.9C ('thick' rain)
8.52pm: 4.8C ('thick' rain)
8.53pm: 4.7C ('thick' rain)
8.55pm: 4.6C ('thick' rain) (Mt William hit freezing at 8.30)
8.58pm: 4.5C
9.00pm: 4.4C
9.31pm: 4.2C

A progression of skiffy showers here at the moment. Another front tonight? I can see showers developing at the SW corner - maybe that will come across us. It would be great to get some sustained rain so we can get run off.

Just want to clear something up...forget about models, and what they prog. They are a guide only. They have limited data, and in fact havent seen this cycle of weather that we are having at the moment. Last time we had this sort of cycle could have been in the 11 or 1200s..nearly 900 years ago. Models have only been around for decades, not centuries. So getting disappointed when things dont come off is not worth it.

For example, when was the last time we got good rains with a strong Northerly? Virtually never, it always fractures over us. We all know this, im very surprised that the models still prog rain developing. And im even more surprised when people go with 20-30mm forecasts. Im very grateful for every drop, i will take 4s and 5s instead of nothing..people down the surf coast would be ecstatic with todays effort..

Anyhow, still another burst to come and East Central should do well with 5mm the norm, maybe higher in some spots.

Well I am off tomorrow to start work experience with the BoM, so going to be an interesting time ahead, and I am not sure if I am able to get on the internet where I am sttaying, but I should be able to, so cya till then!

EDIT: Just had a heavy hail shower....

Anthony Violi wrote:

For example, when was the last time we got good rains with a strong Northerly?

Two big events here in the last couple of weeks Anthony.


........And im even more surprised when people go with 20-30mm forecasts.

Perfectly reasonable expectation in winter and spring when you live on the Great Divide.

Andrew last Wednesday didnt have anywhere the jet aloft that the other systems had..the carbon copy on the Thursday got ripped apart due to the strong jet.

radar is understating the rain in these parts tonight. Heavy frequent showers for the last couple of hours with about 7mm this evening so far. Temps in the alps below freezing now...Buller racing towards 30mm and should have a nice fresh cover by morning.

Heavy showers down here all night - up to 20mm since ~10am (so event around 30mm). Even a bit of hail.

I reckon we are being a bit self centric on this system. It is only the far northwest and a strip through Melbourne north that has missed out. Unfortunately most of us live in that strip About the ranges, coast and through much of the west it has been a nice one - indeed down her at Sandy the local are complaining about the rain.

The problem with our northerlies this year is poor moisture in the low levels (I'd guess that is El Nino) and also most the systems have been weakening rather than strengthening as they come through. The surest sign of a weakening is cold air advection replacing warm air advection in the northwest winds (ie winds blowing from cold to warm air in northwest winds).

Will looks at the charts later - should be showers today but I suspect mostly coastal.

Up to 31mm rain still little showers comming through. We had a very windy night.Our creek did break its bank a few kms down stream from us.

Looking at the charts looks pretty boring today. Just widely scattered showers which should start out as coldies but become more of the drizzly type as the day goes on. The airmass today moistens up and warms a lot (850Ts jump by 6-8C today).

There is a follow-up front tomorrow which should be worth 2-10mm - mainly in the south. This one looks to be standing up a bit but will zip through quickly so will involve luck (as to whether you pick a gap in the showery bands or not).

Good morning all, 3mm here for this event. Just read a comment that Melbourne's North were the only ones who missed out. You could add the Western Suburbs to that as well. 3mm or 2.8mm (Essendon) is not what you would call a massive rainfall event either. Still I'm happy that we are getting anything. My personal predictions for this event around my area were spot on. I didn't get caught up with all these forcasts for at least 10mm totals. I think it's about time we change the way forcasts are done for the Melbourne Metro area as the weather seems to vary between area's such as the East and West. One forcast covering the whole of Melbourne to me seems a bit outdated.

Brief snow flurry in Trentham at 8.40am with a heavier shower. Currently drizzle at 2.7C

Melbourne Skywalker wrote:Good morning all, 3mm here for this event. Just read a comment that Melbourne's North were the only ones who missed out. You could add the Western Suburbs to that as well. 3mm or 2.8mm (Essendon) is not what you would call a massive rainfall event either. Still I'm happy that we are getting anything. My personal predictions for this event around my area were spot on. I didn't get caught up with all these forcasts for at least 10mm totals. I think it's about time we change the way forcasts are done for the Melbourne Metro area as the weather seems to vary between area's such as the East and West. One forcast covering the whole of Melbourne to me seems a bit outdated.

The differences between east and west have always been there, but then Melbourne has always been an east-centric town anyway. Just think, there is a forecast for Mt Dandenong but not Mt Macedon, there are forecasts for the Yarra Valley but not one for anywhere between the airport and Ballarat, you would think with the driest part of melbourne there would be more interest in the area! Oh well that's my whinge over! lol

In regards to yesterday's weather, I agree, only 2 to 3mm for the event, nothing to crow about!

Well ended up getting 5.5mm for this one. Not far south of us, totals were closer to the 15mm and further North total could have been closer to 10mm. We were in the rain hole again. For the week (7 days) we got about 18mm. Would have been great if it was all in once rain but the wind would have dried a fair bit of that.

another 8mm yesterday overnight! This meaning we have cracked the 100mm mark for the moth

The paddocks are the greenest they have been at this time for about 4 years around here. About an inch for me for the week.

Well, around 11.5mm here. Very little of that yesterday only around 4.5mm but 7mm the night before.

That's a reasonable total and I wouldn't say I 'missed out' at all, but you always want to get as much as you can now that we have such a severe drying and warming climate. September for all we know could be straight back to severe drought.

Anyway, I haven't added it up exactly yet, but somewhere around 102mm for the month which is one of the better falls for the state this month and one of the highest in central VIC so certainly not complaining.

Green up here as well although we need a few warmer days locally to really get the grass growing, it still has a bit of that bluish look about it that it gets in winter. Surprisingly enough the area around Sunbury is extremely green atm, of course it is lower elevation down there and a couple of degrees warmer than here so grass has more of a chance to grow. Also on the north side of the range where there is more direct sunlight.

gday all,

Back this morning from my chase into southern NSW. I picked up Brayden from Coburg around 1pm yesterday and we headed up towards Wangaratta up the Hume, made a turn towards Yarrawonga. We had a quick squizz at the radar up there..... i thought it would be bigger, but never mind, still looks like an oversized ping pong ball on a stick;)

We knew that there was a line coming in from the west near Echuca. Thanks to updates from Jane and Clyve, (a big thanks for that guys) At the same time we could see a good pulse on the Beechworth cell, barrrrrr! Gotta hate that: torn between two active cells. We decided to head north to cut off the approaching line and positioned our selves on the road to Finley. BTW, a very good area this for visibility; flat, open territory, right through to Urana. Keep that one in your notebook folks, it's a real hotspot for severe storms, and certainly one i'll go back to during this summer.

So on the road to Finley we saw our first lightning that was backing up the static on am. Mostly CCs, but sporadic. One of those situations where it took a long time for the charge to build up, with each individual cell possessing only 3-4 bolts in it, then dying. This went on for the better part of an hour, but eventually the cold air came through killing off any real convection. I think this neck of the woods really needs that daytime thermal heating to get things really going, so with the coming months we should see better setups.

We did see a fantastic anvil crawler, a real retina burner and smack bang above the road ahead.... would have been a cracking photo, but it wasn't to be;(

We ended up stopping at Berrigan to have a quick assessment of things and it was decided that we could go on all night without a real plausible cell to chase. The frequency and the type of lightning wasn't photogenic enough in the main to get the camera out, or to waste valuable fuel. We did make it to Wagga Wagga for a break, and eventually ended up Culcairn to have a sleep. About 2:30 am, with stars over head, we saw Cu building towards Albury , and decided to have a another crack....the SDS kicking in. We eventually arrived at Wodonga and Brayden guided us to a local lookout with great views, another one to add to the notebook. Nothing prevailed but was another good place to get some rest until daylight. I got home about an hour ago, tired, but happy the Dons won, will be watching the replay;)

All and all, not a bad way to start the season, at least it wasn't a total bust, we did get to see some good lightning (at this stage anything is good) I will be endeavoring to take more people or groups this season. I liked the company, and probably makes the whole chasing activity a lot safer. The point is to go out and have a go, no point waiting for it to knock on your doorstep. Can't wait to the next spring / summer trough system, laying stationary for 3-4 days over northern Vic...... wish i was there already.

Just 12mm up here in Ferny Creek. Did expect at least 20mm - so unless it rains 8mm overnight - I'm calling it a dud!

BTW the paddocks are full of water in South Gippsland (south of about Fish Creek). I've recorded 190mm at Sandy Point for the month which would be about decile 10. This comes on about 120mm in July and 100+ in June. Driving back the roads had water up to a few inches in places flowing across them. I haven't seen it that wet down there in ~10 years of going down (I've seen flash floods but this is a genuine water sogging).

Hard to believe that just 100km north Melbourne is headed for one of the driest years on record

PS getting some decent showers up here now - not heavy but steady.

Only 8mm for us, but just had a surprise shower come through here and skies are looking quite laden to the west. Radar showing a bit going on over Geelong way, maybe we can add a mm or two more?