Storms in Victoria possible during troughy period 21-27 June

I see lightning and storms cells descending from the north today in NE Vic, Any members up that sector able to report?

It is looking quite interesting up there with an unstable atmosphereic environment and the ranges kicking off the activity. I don't think however that the lightning active storms will get much further south, probably just over/near the NE ranges today.

Next few days also hold potential for thunderstorms too, particularly Tuesday and Wednesday. It is worth to keep an eye out for those days. There will be more info and clarity in tonights model runs.

For tomorrow there is the chance for isolated thunderstorms over the NE again, a lot lesser chance then today but it cannot be ruled out, and then on Tuesday isolated thunderstorms are likely to develop over the southwest, central and ranges areas with the advancement of the next system. GFS keeping LI values at -4 on some places on Tuesday. Wednesday continues to hold the risk, mostly in the east and far west.

today there is likely to be scattered showers develop in the far southwest this afternoon and continue this evening. I wouldn't also rule out the chance for isolated thunderstorms to pop up along the southwest coast later today either, but the majority of thunderstorms should stay over the ocean and it is quite active off the SA coast ATM. Tomorrow is also looking like there will be a possible band of thunderstorms develop over the state, probably stretching from the SW of the state to the NE, and GFS has Li values down to -3 and -4 over western and central, northeastern areas.

I think your on to something Jake.

A few showers and thundersorms looks likely and a potential for some severe pulse storms about E Western VIC and Central VIC tomorrow. Fingers crossed.

A period of rain to follow east of the storm development tomorrow night of up to 10mm.

It looked nice and unstable this morning on the way to work, and slightly warmer than I expected. Lots of mid-level towers with virga under some. Also seen some lenticular cloud about just under the accas, which I imagine is the result of the airflow over the central ranges into central areas.

So are we going to need much heating to get things going today or is there enough instability in the atmosphere already?

Rog.

We will need temps between 18-20C to make the most of it. However cold air will allow deep convection and support hail.

Fingers crossed.

Yeah it is certainly looking like an exciting day. Upper features are great ATM.

cloud beginning to stack up over the ranges east of us again today, usually a good sign here. Not quite sure why that is the case but the mountains seem to hold the moisture waiting for a trigger from the west.

Wal