Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

Didn't want to start this thread was actually hopeing someone else would start it but seems like everyone has got cold feet given what happend on the weekend and understandbly so, so I thought I'll jump in the deep end and start it up.

By the looks of it looks like we have a reasonable rainband coming through Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a front and trough both on the surface and uppers across Victoria and unlike the weekend system looks like UKMet and JMA like it this time round UKMet has up to 25mm in parts of Victoria including Central Victoria, JMA also has a broad rainband 10-20mm they were the 2 models that gave us the least yesterday all along while all the other models got really excited over nothing so perhaps just perhaps we have some weather coming our way the next 72 hours.
Cloud and storms in Central Australia today is a good sign and unlike the cut off low that moved million miles an hour 3 weeks ago over us at least this time the system won't be going as fast infact by looks of it slows down as it crosses Victoria. Other peoples thoughts? I'll understand if you don't want to jinx it hopefully I haven't. To be honest I'll be happy with 5mm.
EC had 21mm for us last night and 22mm for us this morning for Thursday and OCF had 19mm but then again EC had 10-20mm saturday night for us for yesterday so it is erratic that model but the fact that JMA and UK are on it this time makes me feel quitely confidant it will provide some useful falls about especially the fact that UK is onboard.

Hope you're right Johnno. The dud of a system yesterday delivered 1mm to us.

The tea tree has blossomed very well this year and early again. That should spell snapper season but the bay temps are too cold atm. I will kepp an eye on them to see if they warm up early.

Lots moving over from south of Africa, but no movement from the south of us on the world sat pics. Might get the odd thundery shower from the north on the weekend.

Your a brave man Johnno. After the duds of the past couple of weeks for us up here, I am gonna just wait and see, (oh and hope).

Hmm, just heard David Brown pumping up this system. Like you John, I would be happy with 5mm. I think 5mm is the figure to hope for these days. Hmm.

Obviously depends on a lot of things but it looks like moisture source will be better this time...and less of a wind problem that we seem to be having of late..jet doesnt look as strong as it has been.

FWIW...i think it will peak to our East, just enough to tease us again. But as long as the catchments get rain that should be first priority..

Channel 7 weather is going for "State wide soaking" of 15 -20mm. With the storms over central Aus I'm i bit more confident for this system. We did have a great system for some parts only 1 week ago and the SSTs up north are good for the first time in years so hopefully the flop will be the exception rather than the rule!

Johnno wrote:Didn't want to start this thread was actually hopeing someone else would start it

Haha, I was going to start it today after school, but you beat me to it mate... Good outlook mate.

Yeah I am more inclined to forecast thunderstorms with this system too considering what central Australia are getting with the trough; there is a supply of moisture and instability with it. And, adding on the front things should get cracking IMO.

So at this stage I see things like this...

Wednesday: It should be a mostly sunny day with strengthening northwesterly winds, though cloud should increase from the west during the morning, pushing through central regions by the afternoon. There well could be a band of patchy rain develop preceding the surface/upper trough from the west developing around midday, and would not rule out the chance for isolated thunderstorms near the band either. But, as the band goes through and as the trough approaches, moisture levels should be higher, and the atmosphere should become qutei unstable, allowing for thunderstorm development, particularly if there is any breaks in the cloud band. Storms should mostly develop over the west nearest the trough IMO, but are possible anywhere. As the cold front approaches Victoria in the Bight, rain areas should redevelop over the southwest at night. It should be a mild to warm day again.

Thursday: The cold front and trough cross the state during the morning with rain areas and isolated thunderstorms. The winds will be initially strong northwesterly, though shifting southwesterly following the change and cooling quite a bit. Following the rain areas we should see tempolarily isolated showers in the north, more scattered in the south, before clearing in the north later and becoming isolated in the south at night. Winds will also gradually ease from the southwest.

Weekend looking weird. It's one of those weekends where we could get storms/showers or not from a trough, but we will get a cold front.

The last few times I have heard TV presenters getting excited about upcoming systems they have actually come off!

I didn't believe it the first few times I heard it either, but I have noticed they have done reasonably well. I remember one a few months ago, when the weather presenter called that it would be raining this time next week (full 7 days out) and it actually came off. Lucky perhaps?

I think luck happens alot these days when it comes to rainfall. Sometimes systems that dont look like much, produce and others like this past weekends event that looks like will be fantastic, disappoint.

Thanks Johnno for the start (gives us someone to blame if it doesn't rain ).

This system does look promising - particularly for the west but also (maybe) central areas. Two real positives are that the system is developing (rather than being a left over cold pool from south of WA) and there is a strong infeed of tropical moisture. The main concern is that the system could peak a little early and we could see the upslide weaken on our doorstep.

UK has 30mm for Melbourne and ~10-20mm for most of Vic (this model picked the poor rainfall on the weekend so lets hope it is right this time). EC, JMA, US and LAPS are pretty similar.

BTW is also going to be very warm on Wednesday - LAPS suggests about 32C for Mildura and ~26C for Melbourne. It looks a bit cooler than Saturday, but will still be darn warm for "spring".

Will wait on the next round of model updates.

PS the weekend ahead is also looking interesting with the potential for winter to return into next week.

Winter to return? You mean commence.

Wouldn't be surprised the ridiculous way our weather is these days if we don't get some crazy unseasonal cold outbreaks over the next couple of months. It looks to me like the patterns are finally showing signs of shifting with upper troughs peaking around our region and not just SW WA like it has for the past few months.

What this should mean is we actually get proper southerly changes and lasting more than a day at a time. Hopefully this can put a temporary halt to the disturbing extreme early season heat buildup that has pretty much exceeded anything we have ever seen before. Like others I am confident this system will come off, good moisture feed, upper level support, all models onto it 48hrs out, but still I'd hate to mozz it.

Really last weekend didn't matter too much in the end if we can continue to get good rain events which the latest model outputs suggest we will from now until the end of the month (so there's a chance there). We can't have every system delivering the goods. Even in good years pre climate change the odd system would be a fizzer, I remember this happening in the past as a normal part of our climate. The only difference back then is that we weren't in drought and in fact it was very wet so we didn't care if the odd system failed that was supposed to deliver. We'd actually be thankful for a break in the rain. It's the opposite these days, any system that fails is considered a bad omen.

I'm not so positive on this one. Not convinced in scoring a huge amount but western VIC could score a bit.

I have that feeling that the tap has been turned off, just a feeling but would rather be wrong.

Still a shot at 5-10mm but need 25mm from this one.

GFS & EC disagree with you Karl (which probably means you are right ). Still looks like 10-20mm in the west and 5-15mm for central areas... though am yet to look that closely.

GFS is looking crazy for late in the weekend - pure nonsense IMHO.

I do think that things may peak early so Western areas will do the best out of this IMO im think 10-15mm for myself here 15+mm as you go west and going east to melbourne upto 10mm. Looking further ahead has anyone seen next Monday low/trough over eastern Vic with tropical infeed it looks darn good but so far out it will change. This is on the GFS morning update!

And because US us behaving this way that is why i'm skeptical...

'Weather.com.au' is saying 7mm for Thursday and 15mm! for Monday. I'll believe it when I see it though, as they are often inaccurate.

Hope some of the rain bands from the west are strong enough to keep steady showers going once and if they reach Melbourne.

Well the dams hit 30% today. so lets hope it continues to rise with this system.

Well this system looks good on paper but I am still to be convinced, only because of the last system and the fact that any northerly component of a system has completely died on us so I am hesitant.

LAPS and MLAPS looks OK and UK has some reasonable rainfall moving through the state and pushing east Thursday. The thing that concerns me is that every model peaks the rain somewhere different. This to me suggests that one region of the state will do well while 2/3rds miss out.

I expect 1-5mm in Melbourne from it Thursday.

Maybe some better prospects as we resolve into a westerly wind by Monday. A band of rain looks much more promising on that synoptic rather than Thursday.

150 years of forecasts and historical data are used in forecasting. No one allows for climate change effect because they dont know how to yet.

Visible sat loop shows quite a lot of cloud developing in WA and SA now so hoping this can do somthing for us. Some lightning and radar returns in SE WA now so something happening. I suppose it depends on how warm and dry these winds become. Hopefully we can get some cloud cover earier to cap the temps.

Really not much to report on this system. GFS, UK, EC, LAP, all have 10mm+ for most areas west of Melbourne and tending to be a bit less east of Melbourne. Some models have a bit more and some a bit less. It doesn't look like a drought breaker, but could be a handy drop for the garden and crops (fingers crossed).

EC has 20mm for Ferny Creek - will be pleased with that, and about 10mm for Melbourne.

Thing that worries me is the horribly dry low levels ahead of this system - tomorrow will be almost a repeat of Saturday with RH falling to very low values. At the same time, this system has a much sharper upper trough, and generally better upslide so the scale of uplift is much better.

Next weeks looks more promising (but will probably down grade...).

Hi guys, can someone direct me to the models they are looking at? I have recently changed computers and don't have the links anymore. And I would also love to know what you are all referring to.

Thanks

Tony

It's very different to the weekend passed. That system was just too weak in the end to overcome the dry low levels and general lack of moisture. This time we have the sharp upper trough and far better dynamics. Still I have a history of mozzing things every time I talk them up. Despite that though I still think you have to go with what the models are saying. I don't think you can write this coming system off just because the last one failed.

Weather is a very complex thing, no two systems are the same.

BTW, only looks a few degrees less tomorrow than Saturday to me. Doesn't look like much cloud around tomorrow if any if it is going to be as extremely dry as others have predicted. Convection could develop some cloudy periods but even that doesn't seem likely if we have DPs into the negatives. I would be very surprised if it doesn't get to around 27C tomorrow.

Looks like an upgrade on this system with GFS and EC now showing pretty widespread 10-20mm falls. Not much today - perhaps a little rain very late in the west of the state - this reaches Melbourne early hours of tomorrow. Is going to be a very warm and dry one (again).

BTW it does look like quite a protracted rain event tomorrow (EC has rain falling in every 2 hour block for ~26 hours in Ferny Creek).

RE models - the best site for the EC models is http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Mount_Dandenong/hour_by_hour.html (type in your location and you can get meteograms/maps etc. The bsch.au.com site is my favorite for GFS.