Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Looks to me like the main focus today will be the west then spreading east on the sharp trough/frontal boundary. This front sits just west of Melbourne at 11pm and has a heavy precip max (typically about 10mm in 3 hours). Would expect some nice storms to be on the boundary (LI are progged to be around -3 near the trough) - shame it won't get to most of us until (around mid night). Should be worth 5-25mm (depending on if you get a cell or go between).

Not convinced about the pre-frontal stuff. Will be the odd bit of convection go up, with the odd shower/storm but I'm anticipating this to be pretty sparse.

Meanwhile a very odd area of "light rain" in central areas ATM.

PS great photos everyone!

24.5 mm tipped out this morning in Kerang and 17.7 mm in Cohuna.
Local farmers reckon it'll only make weeds grow, but I am wondering with the way things are heading they should be planting summer crops more often because we seem more often than not to get late season rain nowadays. Time to adapt to new conditions.

Nice going Ron.

Can confirm DJ it is misty drizzle falling here. Bizzare.

Plenty of tree damage around Box Hill North. Many large branches down and a few entire trees knocked over on Dorking Road. Kerrimuir Primary School had suffered plenty of tree damage whilst I heard on the grapevine that a very large tree fell on the grounds of Box Hill North Primary School. Apparently children had just returned inside before the tree came down.

Makes me wonder, in events like this, is there a set warning system that advises schools, kinders and the like if a severe storm is about? If this cell arrived during lunch time, what would have been the situation? A bit uglier I think!!!

Thick fog here at the moment.... had 6mm overnight.

I used to work of Lexton rd in Box Hill North and it's quite exposed as you come north up Middleborough Rd/Blackburn Rd. At the time yesterday as the storm tracked over the region, there was significant scud almost reaching the ground, would have been at about 2:20pm to my NW.

Wonderful shots everyone well done!!!

I am not convinced today. I think we will have to wait til this low winter cloud clears

Tonight it could be quite a thundery rain but again we will have to see how it performs closer to the western districts later.

BTW latest models are mixed but all push a band of showers/storms and rain across the state later. But what is interesting is that LAPS and MLAPS continue thundery rain tomorrow as the low tracks across the coastline. What will need to happen to get these falls is for the convection on the northern side of the rainband to be on the right side of severe this afternoon so fingers crossed.

It is just a waiting game and I hope reports west and north of Melbourne are of sunshine once the fog clears. What is happening in rural areas? What is the sky saying?

Very Smazll patches of blue sky shining through the "Winter Cloud", but it is looking like its breaking up.

25/15 here atm. Clear sky, will report if any cu development later. Got a nice thunder storm last evening but only 4mm of rain. (I acknowledge that it was never going to be an East Gippsland event).

IDV18600
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Fire Weather Briefing for Victoria
Issued at 10:49 am EDT on Friday 27 November 2009.

Estimates Today:
The fire weather estimates issued this morning should provide good guidance for
this afternoon. The timing of the westerly change in the west has slowed up a
little, while the airmass ahead of the change remains warm and humid. Some
warming in the middle levels of the atmosphere is likely to put a cap on deep
convection, suggesting there is just a slight risk of thunderstorms over
central and eastern Victoria. As the trough approaches in the west the
instability increases with rain and wet thunderstorms more likely as the
afternoon unfolds. Forecast wind speed was marked down on the morning issue,
which looks like the right move, but expect the northwesterly wind to increase
ahead of the front in the west.

Observational Network Status:
Western Port is offline, as is Mt Baw Baw which may have been hit by lightning
yesterday.

Weather Situation:
A low pressure system will move from the Bight towards southwest Victoria late
today. An associated trough will reach western Victoria late this afternoon,
clearing eastern Victoria early Saturday. The low will remain near southwest
Victoria during Saturday then will weaken on Sunday as it moves eastwards,
reaching the Tasman Sea by Sunday afternoon. On Monday a high will move from
the Bight towards southern Tasmania.

24 Hour Rainfall to 9am:
Widespread rainfall across Victoria with totals ranging widely due to
thunderstorm activity. Totals of between 10 and 25mm were recorded at a number
of reporting stations. Some of the higher amounts included: Mt Buffalo with
54mm, Weeaproinah with 48.6mm and Mt Tassie with 47.6mm.

Weather Today:
Isolated showers tending to become more scattered this afternoon in the west. A
band of rain and thunderstorms extending from the western border towards
evening, reaching central districts overnight. Mild to warm and humid with
moderate to fresh northwesterly winds turning westerly over the west during the
afternoon.

Hey all

there is a sharp edge to the cloud cover to the west, things are lightening well as we speak, dp's and temp rising.

Plenty of tree damage around Box Hill North. Many large branches down and a few entire trees knocked over on Dorking Road. Kerrimuir Primary School had suffered plenty of tree damage whilst I heard on the grapevine that a very large tree fell on the grounds of Box Hill North Primary School. Apparently children had just returned inside before the tree came down.

Box Hill North PS is my daughters school - and it wasnt just one tree :-( Upper playground lost at least one tree and also the shade sails (now fenced off), quadrangle lost all gum trees and shade sails - heres a couple of snaps from the iPhone




Around the school there would have been at least 10 or more trees down - I raced past there as the storm was approaching on my way to take the pics from earlier in the post and they were getting the kids in already and pulling the cranes down from the construction site. Kids were a bit rattled by it understandably. Most of the damage is in a very narrow band past the school, up Woodhouse gve and along the bike paths/Dorking rd (Which was closed off yesterday by the police due to tress and lines down) This would correspond to the number of power flashes I saw from the top of the shopping centre which all came from around there

Hi Adam.

Glad you found us!! Certainly starting to warm. We may have to be patient - or perhaps chase west to get the better activity this afternoon. Should be some lightshows about tonight which is good!!!

Looks like local wind gusts of 130kmh there Bell. Thanks for confirming...I must say I thought I saw power flashes at about 2:25pm towards that part of the horizon from here, but wrote it off as lightning.

I agree karl, i'll be heading west straight after work, then will retreat back to Melbourne as it comes. Like i said before i think the line will be structured, being lit up by the light show.

Quite right Greg. Get as far west as possible for the best results. With peak diurnal heating occuring over the west of Melbourne the line will continue to maintain integrity... Let me know if you need any updates...

Here is the thunderstorm chart for today....

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Issued at 11:01 am Friday, 27 November 2009,
Valid until midnight on Friday, 27 November 2009.

Thunderstorms are likely near and just ahead of a trough that is expected to move into western Victoria this evening. There is a small chance of storms elsewhere during the afternoon, especially about the ranges. Severe thunderstorms are a risk near the trough, especially over the Wimmera and Western districts, with damaging winds and large hail possible.

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A very lucky escape there Bellarine! Thanks for the update.
Getting brighter by the hour in town.
Currently 23/15.

Alot of lower level convection popping up in the sky now that the middle level junk is clearing out especially to the WSW

There will be no shortage of convection around this arvo, still warm and humid. Whether we get deep convection is another matter again. And tonight won't be as good without the upper feature IMO...we may struggle for storms and just get a thundery rain band left over..let's hope for good rain in any case..

Seems to be a few showers developing west of Geelong...

BTW - seems to be extensive low level convection on the visual satellite. Could be a little more interesting if we get to 32C

Spot on Karl. Pretty early in the day for it to be developing based on models/forecasts. Also more east than I thought at this stage.

I think with the current situation IF the temps get up a bit more, prefrontal activity is definately on the cards, it all depends on what happens over the next 2 hours i think. I personal hold no great hopes for the east, but definately should be some nice viewing in the west.

Well up to 25C here now and there is plenty low level cu with cj and CB to the west. I suspect we need to get towards 30C for anything locally but there will be stuff about.

Stuff towards Geelong went too early but may reform later after 3pm.

Winds have shifted through to the NNE down there and there is a seabreeze further towards the surf coast so there could be some convergence locally which could act as a trigger this afternoon

This mornings sounding is not very hopeful for convection this arvo in central areas. Too warm at 700hPa with quite an inversion. It will not be until the front gets closer that this will break down. All the action is likely to be pretty late (LAPS has the LI dropping through the day to be around -2 to -3 by 11pm).

Is curious - however - that we have showers near Geelong ATM. Suggests that there is local pockets where things are more unstable.

Tomorrow afternoon is also shaping up as a possibility for storms in central areas in northwesterly flow ahead of the main low.

A lot of lowish and mid-level convection with some very dark bases. 27.7/15 So not without some interest.

There is just so much cu about it is hard to think that we are without chance. I guess we will find out once things start lifting and trying to go for it.

It does look good tomorrow with the LAPS suite going for quite useful rainfall this weekend.