Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

Finally getting some patches of sun now, although the temp is a bit cooler here compared to where you are karl, only about 23 at last check. a lot of cloud cover around still, would need a bit more sun for any real heating i think.

Quite sharp and pronouced convection over the SW corner and into SE SA. Keep an eye on that!!

Well hit the 30c mark up here now and still sunny although a little cloud starting to pop but nothing substantial. PS sorry Karl my phone was in my pocket!

LOL no worries Anthony...It was no problem, I figured as I picked up.

Looking like the storms are exploding on the back of the Adelaide Hills with the approaching trough. This should be the developing weather news of the afternoon. Should start to organise in the coming 2 hours and who knows could explode over the border into W VIC.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND
For people in the
Murraylands, Upper South East, Lower South East and parts of the Adelaide and Mount Lofty Ranges districts.

Issued at 2:10 pm Friday, 27 November 2009.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds with gusts in excess of 90 km/h in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Mount Gambier, Murray Bridge, Meningie, Karoonda and Robe.

When do you think the storms will happen for Melbourne, as i have work 5-8

Latest GFS (just in) has falls to 50mm in parts of western Vic but this running into a brick wall just west of Melbourne which gets only a mm or two. EC/LAPS/Mesolaps are a lot more positive for central areas.

Not sure what to make of it, though experience is that GFS tends to go over board with rainfall and also make it too localised.

Great though fast moving storms in SA.

Wow Karl those Storms on the SA radar look abslutely menacing.
I would assume some very severe reports are going to come out of those area's..
Things are bubbling about in some pockets of instability around the metro region at the moment.
Just a matter of some of these getting a little more organised.

IMO if your in the right place some weaker storms from this point on until later tonight when we will either get storms rainband, decent showers or all the above.

That storm east of Victor Harbour in SA is a massive massive storm one of the most intense and largest storms I have seen in a long time

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
South Australia Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for DAMAGING WIND and LARGE HAILSTONES
For people in the Adelaide and Mount Lofty Ranges, Yorke Peninsula, Kangaroo Island, Mid North, Riverland, Murraylands, Upper South East and Lower South East districts.

Issued at 3:27 pm Friday, 27 November 2009.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce damaging winds with gusts in excess of 90 km/h and possible large hailstones in the warning area over the next several hours. Locations which may be affected include Adelaide, Maitland, Murray Bridge, Clare and Robe.

David,

Cup Weekend, US has nothing for us that Friday night with 0 CAPE and +LIs and we had 40mm here in an hour. It is relative of course but it certainly is a volitile atmosphere. I think Melbourne is on the cusp of thunderstorms still but we will find out later this evening.

The LAPS suite shows unstable weather tomorrow too.

I think i'll hedge my bets and head west after 5:30..... if a similar line that is currently firing on all cylinders in SA continues, i'd rather have a piece of the action then wait for it, esp cause it's a Friday:)

OP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING - ADELAIDE REGION
for DAMAGING WIND
For people in the Onkaparinga, Yankalilla, Victor Harbor, Western Alexandrina and parts of the Mount Barker council areas.

Issued at 3:33 pm Friday, 27 November 2009.

The Bureau of Meteorology warns that, at 3:30 pm, severe thunderstorms were detected on weather radar near Yankalilla and Parawa. These thunderstorms are moving towards the east to southeast. They are forecast to affect Noarlunga and Mount Compass by 4:00 pm and Victor Harbor, Meadows and Goolwa by 4:30 pm.

Damaging wind gusts in excess of 90 km/h are likely.

The State Emergency Service advises that people should:
* Secure or put away loose items around your property.
* Move cars under cover or away from trees.
* Keep clear of fallen power lines.
* Stay indoors, away from windows, while storms are nearby.

The next warning is due to be issued by 4:25 pm.

And also Greg they wont regenerate as good IMO without the upper trough...but they are doing a mighty fine job with some heating. Looks like it will be a collapsed thundery rain band at worst for us overnight, given the high humidity a new line forming ahead of it would be a chance but we will have to wait and see late evening how that scenario will play out..

Was actually quite nice here today, didn't feel humid or sticky very much at all, but that westerly change has a real bite to it so I think I'm in for the first major storm of the season down my way.

Well we have plenty of heat here so these storms should go on for a while. I would say 32-33 outside now and only a gusty breeze so when it drops it is very sticky. I suppose it depends on how quickly they are moving as to how much we get but they look like they will not be a very thick band. Rather nasty looking stuff out there so people with crops still to harvest will be nervous.

I can't see that thing breaking down too much

Latest JMA has generally 15-25mm through Central Vic & Melbourne from tonight until Monday morning so it looks similar to Laps and Mlaps

Lovely day. Morning cloud to sunny conditions though convection again here this afternoon, some of it looks like it could go on to develop into thunderstorms, but my reason explained below. Warm and very muggy though! Temperature currently at 27 degrees and DP at 18.

A warm layer developed in the uppers over central/eastern Victoria which I personally did not expect, and this has restricted a lot of development there this afternoon. There will be small stronger pockets of instability over these regions that may get deep enough convection for something, but western districts should be in for a show tonight ahead of and with the trough itself. Expecting heavy rain and large hail associated with the thunderstorms moving into western parts later this afternoon and damaging winds as well.

Certainly going to be interesting. Hope it all holds cause I am waiting for it. I feel like its the night here!

I hate humidity. Not fun to work in.

Once the mid level junk started to clear the temp here jumped a good 4c in 2 hours. RH is dropping a bit but DP's are around the same. Fingers crossed, still hopeful for some rain at least and a storm would be even better. Warm wet breezes are weird to feel in Melbourne

Jake, as soon as the upper level low weakened and slid away last night the uppers were always going to warm slightly..some good heating today has started to erode that, as will the combination of nightfall and the trough closing in.

That current band wont make it here at that strength, needs to reform ahead of it but back it in we will get thundery rain garden variety..anything more would be a big bonus for us here in central districts.

Anthony Violi wrote:Jake, as soon as the upper level low weakened and slid away last night the uppers were always going to warm slightly..

Something to learn everyday I guess!

Yeah for Melbourne perhaps touch and go but your a shoe in Jake for plenty of action and good rain wouldnt suprise me to see you get at least 20mm tonight

BTW looks like a pre-trough has formed ahead of the main trough itself back on the border fresh Southerly winds have developed in Geelong over the past hour which definetly isn't a seabreeze as Geelong was in light ENE winds before this so come kind of trough has pushed in and be interesting to see how far it gets up the bay and have any effect of developing pre-frontal showers or even a storm on the Western side of the bay in the next couple of hours

Interesting John. I am really hopeing to get a thunderstorm tonight. Central parts got one yesterday and I want one now! I hope thats not selfish.

The line is still looking really good. Hopefully a bit more development behind the main band and the BoM should issue a STW soon!