Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

well it will be a quiet night tonight no storms. Too cool. I reckon the next lot Thursday may be a repeat!

was there actually an event this weekend? What happened to rain periods? I just got showers and heavy showers, but really they were few and far between, and I actually got 24.5 today, which was actually quite warm!

I should of went with my gut feeling for this system. Wasn't very confident of picking up anything major before things started Friday night.

You live in Caroline Springs, so you only get showers.

Areas of rain have continued around the eastern side of Melbourne. Was some flash flooding in Monbulk with CGs around for an hour but that has eased now, but upwards of 25mm there.

Back home I have had 11mm - the primary gauge had more but forgot to empty.

Just easing now but that next band is building and does hold storm potential.

Can see infrequent lightning far away to our SW towards Yarram side of Strezleckiis.

Hoping similar conditions can happen here over the next hour when the rainband between us and Packenham arrives.

The satloop is starting to give confidence in a brief easterly rain event out this way over next 36 hrs.

I must apologise for sounding so negative. I should have realised this was not going to work out for us. But then I suppose I was influenced by what we got earlier in the week, so that when everyone mentioned follow up rain, i was hoping for the same. Looking at this month overall, it is the best rainfall we have had since Dec last year so the positives are there

norfolk wrote:I must apologise for sounding so negative. I should have realised this was not going to work out for us. But then I suppose I was influenced by what we got earlier in the week, so that when everyone mentioned follow up rain, i was hoping for the same. Looking at this month overall, it is the best rainfall we have had since Dec last year so the positives are there

Summed up pretty well there Tony. Exactly how I intially felt. I'm kinda glad the rain has backed off a bit here from a garden prospective. The clay soils around here don't handle large amounts of water well at all.

norfolk wrote:I must apologise for sounding so negative. I should have realised this was not going to work out for us. But then I suppose I was influenced by what we got earlier in the week, so that when everyone mentioned follow up rain, i was hoping for the same. Looking at this month overall, it is the best rainfall we have had since Dec last year so the positives are there

You may be in line for wrap-around cloud like us (we hope) Northy, hang in there..... And dont worry about expressing frustration, this event was meant to be much wetter (by consensus of models) a few days ago - but may be hiding a surprise up its sleeve yet.

LOL your not being negative Tony!! I was just playing with you before....

You should get some rain periods later this evening into tomorrow morning. 5-15mm still likely

Karl Lijnders wrote:LOL your not being negative Tony!! I was just playing with you before....

You should get some rain periods later this evening into tomorrow morning. 5-15mm still likely

yeah u were playing with me, but you are also right in saying we get showers! It is just frustrating to see blue everywhere instead of here! I think we have only had 3mm for this event.

Radar loop seems to show a closed low over Vic atm, centred out near Nhill. New storm brewing up near Mt Buller, and frequent lightning out near Yarram (heading SE). A large slow moving rainband from the prom to the NSW border heading slowly east - must be decent totals out there, unfortunately nobody online to post. Hopefully will arrive here in the next 30min.

Petros wrote:

Instability wrote:................. it was part of a rainbow embeded into an anticrepuscular ray..............
Rog.

... err could I please call a Pauline Hanson on that one?

Hahaha

Now I will have to upload the photo so I don't look like a babbling maniac.

Had some good falls here this afternoon/evening. Not huge amounts but enough to give the garden another good watering.

Rog.

Just looking at the Radar Loop... the upward tilt of the rain out Mt Gambier way suggests that MLAPS is wrong (re low supposed to be centred over Bass Straight atm). The surface low seems to be well inland, and (well if I'm right) will create a very different rainfall scenario to this mornings run.

Mind you, we out this way would be rapt if the current MLAPS/LAPS rain totals come to fruition.

First drops of rain starting... and lightning flashing every 15 secs or so to our distant WNW. Getting pretty keen now for a wetter start than anticipated for the rain over the next 36 hrs. I reckon 25mm+ is in store for us by lunchtime Monday - but then again I'm mostly always wrong!!

Just finished raining here quite solidly. Will check gauge at 9am. That stuff to the east looks like a beaut

Expecting further showers tonight...

Lightning to our W and NW now showing on the tracker, its now every 4 secs or better but still sheet and distant, getting the first muffled rumbles, but only the odd spit or two of rain atm.

Totally continuous sheet lightning to our complete western sky, still sheet, with muffled thunder occasionally. Radar shows red band of rain from the same region, shaping up to the the best storm/lighnting show I've seen here for years. Thunder now getting louder, and naked CC lighting in the distance. Glad I played golf (won too!) today and not tomorrow!!!

Well done Petros. It is good too see some reasonable rainfall out that way around the Thomson too. Seems to be plenty of rain to come as well.

Rain to the west is struggling a bit.

Might have to wait and see but it has been another 60mm of rain here for the last few days.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office
TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
for FLASH FLOODING and LARGE HAILSTONES

For people in the
West and South Gippsland and parts of the
Alpine Forecast Districts.

Issued at 10:28 pm Saturday, 28 November 2009.

Severe thunderstorms are likely to produce very heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding in the warning area over the next several hours. Large hailstones and damaging wind gusts are also possible. Locations which may be affected include Yarram, Traralgon, Sale, Moe and Maffra.

BTW Petros you could get 25mm just from this line with 20-30mm along the line being reported from sites. Balook has had 35mm in 2 hours. 29mm @ Yarram with 16mm in an hour.

I'm sitting on 20mm here now since this event started so starting to accumulate a very sizeable total.
Hey not quite the 56.5mm from last weekend (yet lol) but makes a very welcome change to get a follow up event of such size.
Sure not everyone has done so well but that is the nature of the beast. If we all got the same weather and totals it would hardly be worth talking about in such forums would it??

All too often in the past if we are so lucky to get an "event" of marked rainfall it is so isolated and we don't receive any rain of note for another month or two! Fingers crossed that the hype of this year surrounding bushfires does not eventuate and the 09/10 fire season is remembered for large scale rain events that put a dent in the drought.

Anyway back to the weather at hand I see what looks like a new rain band surrounding the low that looks set to affect the metro area's in particular those in the northern burbs. Providing it holds strength a few more mm's are certainly on the cards before we get a little more showery tomorrow when things start to turn more south / sou easterly. I have noted in the past how radar echoes from that corner only intensify as they head closer to Melbourne. Keep an eye on it..

I also note a couple of cells taking a more easterly trajectory on the radar at the moment - the dopplar shows the difference in wind directions quite clearly.

The damned thing died on our doorstep (but the dog is still whinging) - nice storm to look at, probobly 5-10mm rain but all sheet lightning, 4 sec thunder at best.

that line of showers to the nw has pretty much been in the same area for a while now. Could be some good totals in places like castlemaine, maryborough, clunes or Beaufort for example.

geez surprised at some of the nice totals around the place tonight. Here in Mansfield we had a good soaking 7mm over two hours earlier this evening. Hoping the band of lighter stuff in the west continues it's path east.

Got another 10mm tonight and 7mm today. 5mm overnight and 41mm So this week is one of the wettest weeks for the year. Add this to the 24mm last week and we have had an average spring as far as records go but no where near normal.