Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Yeah an unusually windy day here, particularly with the sustained wind gusts of 80-100kmh since 4am to present. Power flickered a few times through the day with some local outages.

10mm overnight so a good effort with 1.8mm here today with dribs and drabs so really right on the money with what I was expecting. And falls across the divide have come to pass as forecast which is fab!

Showers to continue through the night and some showers will make it to Melbourne later this morning with the chance of a morning thunderstorm with that band in the W currently.

Keep an eye on the weather coming off the Grampians now. I think most of Melbourne should see 5-10mm overnight now that northerly winds are relaxing a little and the origin of the rainfall is more convective.

Statewide bar the rainshadow of the W suburbs, this system has been very useful!

Other than that I think the rainfall totals over some C regions could be 50mm+ by morning, the best fall in winter for years and more rainfall to come off and on right through the week. It is a good time in VIC at the moment. Rainfall over the northern agricultural regions should see them through to Spring.

Chance of a thunderstorm in the band moving in from the NW and W.

Just checked the gauge, 18.5mm overnight and today with 11 mm since late this afternoon and mainly this evening. Not bad in the end.

had an extra 10mm still drizzly out. Weather is holding in the cricket too which is very good, go Aussies, grind the poms into the dirt

well I wonder if this 'little' patch of rain that's streaming down from the NW will hit me. Will report in the next few hours while I am watching TDF!

Hopefully i get something from the area coming down from the NW

do I really need to report on how nothing fell here at all from what looked promising?

Well we have had 5 minute light rain about 20 mins ago

What a let down for us so far 1mm

Only 2.4mm here in the end. Tried to set in a few times but never really got going. Glad I didn't stay up watching the radar

An amazing rainshadow off Macedon/Trentham going from 50mm to zero mm in ~40km - can't recall ever seeing such a strong drop off in rainfall for that regions - and very monotonic.

Best of it today will be in the west and along the ranges, though should be some decent showers develop south central areas (including Melbourne's east) from lunch onwards. Its a rather mild humid unstable NW stream so could get quite convective. Will be a case of watching the radar and the sky.

1.5mm for me since 9am yesterday to add to my 6.5mm the day previously. Although it did rain fairly heavily at one point in the night, sadly it was very shortlived.

YTD total 230.1mm and July TD is 36.75mm.

27mm here so far with nice sunny sky now. Very happy. Looks like nth-slopes did well.

Rhino.

9 mm here yesty for an event total of 13 mm. Just a great follow-up. Bright sunshine this morning to get the grass growing.

No further rain overnight in Sale-back in Melbourne now. Saw a few convective showers towards the South during the trip down associated with the low over Bass Strait-not much except clear skies to the North.

The Western, Central and W & S Gippsland districts could actually see some isolated thunderstorms develop this afternoon and evening with a destabalizing environment with a fair bit of cold air advection. Looking at the wind shear, it actually seems and looks like it will be okay today and could even be an indication for persistent supercell thunderstorms if things get going, and of course that could lead to large hail and damaging winds. LI values are also in the negative range across the south today and there is also low CAPE. Despite the low CAPE other indicators are good. As those showers develop this afternoon/evening watch out for thunderstorms as well. It could be a very good day. I will get the BoM's thoughts out soon...

droughtbreaker wrote:Yes Dagget, finally the rain has increased and pushed over the ranges. Was looking like a real fizzer until recently. I was unaware that the bulk of the rain was set for this evening so it has surprised me a bit. All indications were for the best of it to fall overnight and during the day. Tomorrow also looking just a little bit promising IMO, with showers and the odd thunderstorm likely. Would love to sneak in a thunderstorm here but it is looking more likely south of the ranges, Melbourne in with a shot tomorrow. We had 7mm just before the more solid stuff set in, might see another 10mm on top of that the way things are going, at least 5mm anyway you would think and that would be closer to model estimates.



A chance for some rain in the western suburbs in the next few hours. Seriously you deserve to get at least 5mm, ridiculous how the rain keeps missing completely there .

Gonna keep this short and sweet cos my patience has reached a point of no return with this happening all the time here. 1.5mm since Friday here 5mm these days out here is literally a dream this way especially in these set ups

Today should see the chance of a few decent showers and even a thunderstorm developing south of the ranges, western suburbs and CBD may be in with a shot. Moisture levels are high so let's hope we can see this occur today.

For here today there should be some showery periods later and maybe tending to a rain. Only 5mm likely locally.

I expect nothing out here again today Andrew at BEST enough to wet the concrete but anyworth while mm's can't see it happening thats what my gut tells me and my gut is usually right so going to stick with it.

NE has also missed out with this one the upslide was to far west as I thought few days ago, for their standards it has been poor as Alexia told us and some of the rainfall figures up there show that so to say it has been very useful statewide except the western suburbs is wrong but there has been some good rain of late there so I'm sure their not way to fussed & their time will come again. East Gippsland has also had very little Bairnsdale and Eastwards.

Where its badly needed once and for all is the Great Western and Northern suburbs desert of Melbourne and outskirts and East Gippsland then the whole state will be in recovery.

I think its fair to say some parts of Central Australia have had more rain than me this year and there 1500ks away from the coast/sea and I'm 9/10ks away from the coast so go figure.

2.8mm's overnight here and MTD 46mm's and YTD 257mm's. Mild 15c here now may get one or two showers later today but not much i think.

Not sure if anyone has seen Hawthorn vs North Melbourne game down at Aurora Stadium in Launceston. Massive deluge of rain, hail and massive bolt of lightning shown on TV. They're stealing our weather Hoping for something later.

Flangfest there has been some huge falls in northern Tasmania. Lots of 100m+ falls since yesterday morning with some July records being broken (Sheffield for example broke it July record by nearly 50% )

About 17C is the temperature for convection to get going, so is getting very close west of Melbourne with 16C towards Avalon/Laverton. Would expect some showers to pop up soon - though can't see from here (we face southwest/southeast.

A bit of drizzly rain just coming over the mountain now. Hopefully it will develop into something half decent as the day progresses.
That instability over northern Tas extends into southern VIC so good signs for something in western suburbs of Melbourne and southern VIC in general.

It's looking decidedly black to the N/NE of me here, around the other side of Mount Dandenong. Barely anything showing on radar at the moment though. Here it's sunny with a reasonably gusty wind but fairly mild, 13.6 degrees. I couldn't sleep last night so kept an eye on the radar but we barely registered any rain overnight, not enough to get even a mm in the gauge. Just a short burst of rain at 2.15, 2.45 and again around 3.15am.

Getting some nice heavy showers here at the moment.
Tipped out 18mm this morning

Won't rain in the Western or NW suburbs today mark my words its developing over the NW ranges then once again dries out over Melbourne before developing again over the Mornington Penisula and East of Melbourne same old story, I'm sticking to my gut.