Follow-up Rain (Low and Fronts): July 10-14 2009.

Any heavy rain up here will definitely get the rivers up, 131mm here for june and 20mm so far in july. The ovens river has had a good flow after 200mm around mt buffalo, any more substancial rain over that area will be interesting - and possible if the models are to be believed. Looking good for the NE in my opinion with the systems following a similar track to the previous fronts with moisture dragged in from NW. Just quickly any ideas why WZ news seems to give info and predictions for SA and WA but rarely NE Vic?

Well, if I had to go purely from past experience with this sort of set up I'd say it is pretty much classic for good rain up here and right across the ranges for that matter. The rain shadow effect will be a major factor for most of Melbourne but I still reckon most of the state will do alright. Can't see a total flop for anywhere except maybe East Gippsland.

Well lets hope we get some decent falls

The BoM are saying the first band of rain will be patchy and light generally because it should actually weaken too IMO on the Friday afternoon/overnight in the west, not much should reach central parts, but then another burst with the cold front coming in on Saturday should re-organise things well with a quite nifty rain band on the cards, brining fairly moderate falls, particularly to the ranges, southwest and northeast of the state. It is interesting to see GFS keep the low approaching us from Saturday night southwest of Victoria through it's entire run, but EC moves it east of us and Tasmania by Tuesday. So a little divergence there IMO. I must say though that GFS (US) looks really good for the entire state right through it's run. LAPS as well on Saturday looks great with the approaching front, peaking over western Vic IMO. We should also see a quite strong to gale force north to northwesterly wind across the state similar to the past week and we will also probably see a severe weather warning issued again for inland areas and gale warning for the coast. We should see high cloud increase later from the west tomorrow as well as winds freshening there.

I thought I would chuck in an initial forecast for Vic as well:

THURSDAY: Fine and mostly sunny across the state after morning fog and locally severe frosts although high cloud increasing from the west late in the day. Light to moderate northerly winds across the state, though freshening over the west later in the day. Cool.

FRIDAY: Cloud increasing from the west with freshening northwesterly winds, becoming locally strong over western districts during the day. Some patchy rain developing near the western border during the late morning and then extending across western districts during the afternoon before finally entering central parts at night. The slight risk for isolated thunderstorms near the western border overnight.

SATURDAY: Strong to locally gale force northwesterly winds across the state ahead of a west to northwest change at a similar strength during the day from the west. Rain areas extending throughout, but particularly affecting the ranges, southwest and northeastern parts of the state. Isolated thunderstorms developing about western and central parts during the afternoon.

Jake, you are right about the fronts. There are two distinct features (and a third Sunday/Monday). Progs split on how far the rain will extend east with the Fri system - eg EC actually pushes a few mm's into Melbourne but UK keeps the action to our west. The second front looks like moving into SE SA early Saturday and across Vic during the day. This one makes it right across the state and is very active. The third front then moves into Vic on Sunday.

Still think 10-20mm looks a pretty good estimate for Ferny Creek over the weekend. City may struggle, though at the same time with the Saturday system being rather vigorous the rain shadow may not be so bad. BTW also some extremely warm air ahead of this system in SA - thickness values well into the 560s at the head of the bight which could well see some record highs for July in outback SA.

Another heavy frost out this way-not quite as cold as Tuesday night but still managed -3.5C in the early hours this morning.

I expect very little here on the weekend and even next week I expect little.

Things are now really beyond desperate here our climate here is hooked up with Central and East Gippsland both areas do very well from the S and SE weather but poor from the NW and West and as you can see both areas are in a grip of one of the worse on going severe droughts ever. I have had 121mm of rain this Year! Which is as bad as its ever been here (considering I'm only 10ks from the coast).
I thought 2006, 07 & 08 was bad here but this has beaten it by far. Normally I should of had at least 300 to 325mm by now 2nd week of July for the year but I'm up to 1/3 of that its as bad as it gets even the last few years I was closer to 200mm by this stage of the year & I thought they were bad but this year it has easily beaten that by far

Well I have done a bit more of an analysis of the models and satellite and I don't think it is looking that bad still. Latest LAPS still wants to give 10-40mm wide region of the state. Is it over cooking? Well we will find out. Then JMA and UK are less interested. However looking at the satellite there is a fair cloudband developing.

Into the weekend and next week, it still looks OK for much of southern VIC but it has come down a bit in intensity so I suspect only a moderate event at this time but I still think there is room for an upgrade over the weekend for next week.

Looking unstable at least in NW winds Sun-Mon with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon.

Fingers crossed.

I personally don't like it. The models have been slowly going backwards over the last couple of days. The NW airflow dominates the setup and I think it will again miss the areas that have missed out on the last few events. Most importantly the Thompson catchment and Gippsland. Sorry Johnoo but they are more important than you

Grampians, Central areas and NE will get good falls (20 - 40mm), the snow will get washed away again, with maybe a bit of fresh in the later part of the weekend up high. But really not falling in the right places with the exception of the W of the state which should do O.K to keep things going out there after the promising falls since Anzac day.

And from what I can see there won't be much of a SW flow following the main rain band which unlike the last event gave the SE suburbs/ranges a good drink.

Lots of cloud, wind and light patchy rain for here. If I get more than 10mm by Monday I will be surprised.

yes of course, a northerly set up means we miss out, have fun people north of the ranges!

Hi Luken. What we need is a low in bass straight mate or in East gippsland thats when our dams do well especially the Thomson alot of this stuff that comes out of the N and NW seems to by pass our dams so not only would a rain event from the South or SE benefit and help me but will help the dams as well.. Perfect example of that is the June 2007 Gippsland cut off low when the Thomson dam saw 250mm+ of rain until then we will see little inflows into our dams unless we have a HUGE snow season with strong front (or cold outbreak) after strong font come in from the SW regularly and I'm afraid that won't happen. So were all depending on these slow moving cut offs in Melbourne just SE or East of us not just me and the Western suburbs folk

It doesn't always mean we miss out Norfolk, but on this occasion like so many in recent times it does.

Johnno wrote:Hi Luken. What we need is a low in bass straight mate or in East gippsland thats when our dams do well especially the Thomson alot of this stuff that comes out of the N and NW seems to by pass our dams so not only would a rain event from the South or SE benifit and help me but will help the dams as well.. Perfect example of that is the June 2007 Gippsland cut off low when the Thomson dam saw 250mm+ of rain until then we will see little inflows into our dams unless we have a HUGE snow season with strong front (or cold outbreak) after strong font come in from the SW regularly and I'm afraid that won't happen. So were all depending on these slow moving cut offs in Melbourne just SE or East of us not just me and the Western suburbs folk

I hear ya Johnoo and my sadest condolences to those in the Western desert.

120mm odd that you have had is terrible I really feel for you I do, BUT (always a but isn't there ) I would be happy to get nothing if it means it falls in the places that need it most and would love nothing more than to see a nice deep low traverse Bass straight.
I am just an optimist and regardless of any global warming/climate change blah, blah, that we keep hearing about honestly believe we have to get an above long term average year sooner or later, my fingers, toes, pubic hairs are all crossed that it comes sooner rather than later.

120mm? I wish!!!

According to someone's site (not mine!) Caroline Springs has had only 109.4mm.

http://www.csweather.net/WDL.html

Seems Karl and I are the only optimists with this system - let's face it was never going to be a drought breaker. PME - suggests 10-25mm for most (http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp).

Progs now in good agreement on rain moving into Victoria's west ahead of the first trough. Looks like starting in the early afternoon and reaching Melbourne in the evening. Pretty good agreement on 5-15mm for all but the east with this system, and promisingly not much of a rainshadow showing up - so may actually do OK in Melbourne's west out of this one (e.g., http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Glen_Waverley/advanced_map.html & http://expert.weatheronline.net.nz/daten/profi/nz/jma/prec.html ). The dynamics actually seem to get a bit of a kick over central Victoria which helps our rain prospects. Gut feeling is a bit less than 10mm in Ferny Creek from the initial band.

Then the second front/band to come through on Saturday - this is rather messy and looks like it will focus on the ranges. And again on Sunday, though looking more like showers. Not sure about totals - but will be wet and miserable on the snow fields

Bit of a mixed bag next week - EC, GASP and JMA all put us into reasonable and cold SW flow so showers. GFS looks at bit unlikely IMHO.

(PS for those in the western burbs - perhaps time to move - 370mm ytd up here which is pretty ordinary, but a long way above 109mm).

Problem is that's where all the vacant land is that is at the centre of all the new planned housing developments, Sunbury/Melton/Werribee area so lots more people to suffer from the dry there in the future, certainly a worry.

192.4mm here for the year so far, so I wouldn't be blaming NW flow for the problems, we do almost as well as anyone in the state in NW flow (only NE ranges do better usually) ahead of cold fronts and lows in winter but it hasn't helped us much at all this year. The problem is purely a lack of decent systems affecting the whole state, the west has hogged it all in recent months and earlier in the year it was the NE. Central areas have been dudded more than anyone.

Well nothing more to add than what DJ wrote. Going to plan so far.

Very impressive cloud band on the satellite pic this morning. All going to plan with not much change. EC and GFS (if anything) have upgraded slightly, and certainly suggest some pretty good totals for the next 24 hours with the rain band then showers for most of next week.

Rather warm this morning in the Dandenongs 8.5C at 6am with Cirrus thickening. Should see 10-20mm for us over the Weekend.

And the Adelaide radar is looking pretty good at the moment, let's just keep our fingers crossed that it will not fizzle out as it crosses Vic. It might even shock us all and strengthen as it approaches.

MLAPs and LAPS still look ok as does EC. The rain has reached Adelaide quicker than anticipated so Melbourne could see rain by mid evening. I suspect 10mm around Melbourne.

Next week looks unstable with convective showers tending more onshore later in the period.

SA radar looking promising and with a nice northerly developing today and tommorow will be looking for 20mm+ over the next 48hrs, I ain't greedy. Almost same system as the last one but will be hoping the rain will develop in the northerly quicker, SW wind pushed in a bit to quick here last time and ended up with 16mm although was hoping for around 25mm going by the models. We generally do pretty well in these setups on the nth slopes with sth areas getting a good drop next week. Nice heavy burst of follow up rain would be great.

Rhino.

Radar is showing that it should be raining here but nothing yet and doesnt look like it so far. Hoping tonight will bring something

It's a fair bit of virga at the moment across western districts, though the stuff just entering and near the SA/VIC border is actual precipitation falling to the ground, with local heavy rain entering the Mallee shortly and then Wimmera and Western districts overnight. Central parts will mostly get light stuff for the next few hours, overnight things will start to get heavier. We just started to get some light rain, and that should pick up overnight and into tomorrow, before easing later in the day. We also have the risk for isolated thunderstorms in the west tonight and later tomorrow afternoon in the southwest, persisting until at least Tuesday night or more. Get ready for some nifty totals too overnight and tomorrow when the next front increases activity, and as expected a SWW has been issued, 110km/h winds possible. Very windy here now.

Anyway, got to go milk now, so my forecast and more talk later.

Jake.

Light rain started here now

Really does look good on radar, and a nice thick cloud band. A lot of the "rain" is virga, but looks like most areas apart from the east can look forwards to 10-20mm in the next 24 hours.