Victoria: A week of fronts/lows for SE September 21st-24th 2009

Should double that total Ian.

Looks very good over the state for the week with high moisture levels, fronts, troughs and lows about. I think the forecast is misleading for tomorrow with a shower or two - looks like showers increasing as we go into a cyclonic SW.

US indicating large falls around the state still, LAPS showing reasonable rain tomorrow with MLAPS tending the same way.

Haven't seen EC as yet.

EC looks great. Initially the focus for the rain is the west and northwest today (though slowly edging into central areas. Then it settles down a bit tomorrow ahead of the secondary development on Wednesday. Looks like a burst of heavy rain across southern/eastern Vic on Wednesday with the secondary low.

EC is also very cold for GF day - thickness values near 528 which should see some snow about the Dandenongs if it comes off

BTW worth watching the barometer. Is going to drop very low - wouldn't be surprised to see numbers into the 980s.

Willing to speculate on rainfall for Melbourne DJ??

US continues sensational rainfall progs for the whole state and I dare say flooding is possible away from the NE and extend back to the N plains. Worth watching!!

Does look good Karl. BOM forecasts don't really match what GFS is giving though at the moment. Forecasts for heavy falls around nth central and northern country areas for tonight from BOM but GFS giving only around 10mm totals for next 48hrs in latest run and also around 50-75mm around the mallee area but no heavy rain forecast for there. BOM may change forecast later though.

Rhino.

Already some scattered cu about in Melbourne... Could be some interest today.

...wonders how much rain can fall from a clear blue sky... Haha. :p

seriously though, it is a lovely day up here ATM.

HOLY F*&^*&%^$*&$))#)(!&(#$)*(^&(@*$^!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I just seen SA radar!!!! THats insane! have not seen that in like ever?!

You're not wrong Rik!!!!
Lightning tracker is going nuts, which is great for this time of day.
The trajectory of those cells will place the Wimmera and South West on high alert later this afternoon.

I thought you may like it Rik. Could be fun 12hrs from now.

Also keep in mind that with fairly clear skies and heating things could develop in VIC mainly about the western ranges.

Yer Rikki, i know! Very similar set up to a period in the early 90's in SA, severe storms galore. That period really harnessed my passion for weather.

And i have conferences all week that i cant get out of from 9am through till 10pm starting tomorrow.. as well as tongiht from 6-11pm...

Looks a lot like a SE QLD set up

Flood Watch issued for North East.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Note: This Flood Watch is a heads-up for possible future flooding and is
NOT a Flood Warning

FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH EAST VICTORIA (UPPER MURRAY, MITTA MITTA, KIEWA,
OVENS AND KING CATCHMENTS)
Issued at 8:36 AM on Monday the 21st of September 2009
by the Bureau of Meteorology, Victorian Regional Office

A low pressure system will develop over South Australia this morning before
tracking southeastwards past western Tasmania on Tuesday to the Southern Ocean
by Wednesday. An associated trough will move into western Victoria late Monday
and through eastern Victoria early Tuesday.

Overnight (Monday into Tuesday) forecast rainfall totals of up 50 mm may occur
across the North East catchments.

The North East catchments are wet as a result of rainfall in the recent weeks.
Forecast heavy rainfall combined with snow melt in the Alpine area is likely to
lead to significant stream rises and possibility of minor flooding in the North
East catchments.

The Bureau is continuing to monitor the situation and will issue catchment
specific warnings if and when required.


In the interests of community safety the SES suggests following precautions:
* Don't walk, ride or drive through floodwater,
* Don't allow children to play in floodwater,
* Stay away from waterways and stormwater drains, and
* Keep well clear of fallen power lines

Contact the SES on 132 500, if emergency assistance is required.
Current Road and Traffic Information can be obtained from the VicRoads website:
http://www.vicroads.vic.gov.au/trafficalerts

Weather Forecast:
Forecast for Monday.
Cloudy. Patchy rain with isolated thunderstorms late this evening, becoming
widespread overnight with local heavy falls possible overnight.

Forecast for Tuesday.
Cloudy. Areas of rain. Local heavy falls. The chance of thunderstorms.

Thanks for hearing me out BOM haha. Yes finally there it is

Bloody hell, things have really turned nasty in SA!

Geez, some ripper storms on the SA radar. It's been some time to see such an active week weather-wise. How's that low tracking for far East Gippsland? I'm not sure whether to go up there Karl or stay here. Looks a pretty active week pretty much everywhere haha.

Floyd, still too early to tell the exact placement of the low. I'm sure one of Karl, John or DJ could give a 100km radius of where the low could bomb.

Even though it is exciting given the forecast rain, the winds associated with the low will be dangerous. John previously mentioned Storm Force winds on Wednesday. That' in excess of 48knts. And places like Mallacoota are subject to even stronger winds!!

Interesting times ahead!!

Possibility of rotation in some of those SA cells?

Thanks Sniper, Yeah looks like roughly somewhere between the Prom and Bairnsdale Floyd it will really deepen before moving SE so where it bombs all depends where the heaviest of the rain will be and where the strongest of the winds will be but at the moment I would still say Storm force East of Point Lonsdale for a period Wednesday morning will ease a touch as the low moves away later Wednesday

Rotation for sure in 2 of those cells, Kadina and Cleave. Both left movers now, and if the Kadina storm doesnt hurry up its going to be eaten up by that Cleave cell... wouldnt want to be anywhere near that if it did...

Been reports of Golf Hail on the EP as well now... very dangerous storms...

Just told my mate in Adelaide not to walk to Uni this morning cuz he'll be leaving in about 15min. He's lke "its not that dangerouse out here, just some interesting looking clouds.." haha

Thanks Sniper and John. Yeah, it can get pretty windy up there but fortunately for me, my house is on the lake so it's sheltered fairly well by the hills so I can get out of the winds if needed. Hmm, so Wednesday is looking the most intense weather for Mallacoota? Would be good to hear thoughts from Karl and DJ and even Jake on where the low should track and bomb and also what to expect.

Haha, sorry for all the questions. Just I missed out on a 100mm of rain in about 18 hours last year with a low bombing near far East Gippsland, would have been good to see (thought I don't think it's going to be anywhere close to those proportions if the low is more to the west).

Certainly firing up over the border!!

Other hazards to mention about the low are:

* Severe beach erosion
* Possible coastal innundation due to low pressure, high waves, abnormal tides etc.

Places like Loch Sport, Paynesville and those around the Gippsland Lakes should be aware that if the low bombs closer to land then those hazards become more likely. I have not checked the Tide chart, however a 960hPa low with 8m waves will cause some sort of damage right on the coast.

Not trying to be dramatic here, just providing some info on what may occur if the all the planets aligned...

I_Love_Storms wrote:Bloody hell, things have really turned nasty in SA!

Good morning all, you can certainly say that again ILS, those cells look like monsters!!