Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

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Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:26 pm

Looks like more fronts will come through next week from Monday onwards with Wintry set up with strongish fronts, Wind, Possible hail and thunder in Southern areas and snow to fairly low levels perhaps widespread again to the 800-900 metre mark. Hopefully some more rain for the catchments and some rain also for the farmers up North to finish a satisfactory season. Other peoples thoughts?

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Luken on Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:32 pm

Beat me to it by 5 mins Johnoo.

here was what I just posted.

So.. Been watching this one on the models for the last 48 hours or so, and it seems to be holding. All models that I use anyway seem to agree a nice deep low pressure system will cross the SE during next week. Looks to be bringing lots more rain and also a very tight pressure gradient so can expect lots of wind with it as well.

EC going for 60mm here for the week, but as people have pointed out it does tend to underestimate, so could be double that, especially up around the Yarra Valley, and other usually wet spots.

Can't see any areas missing out completely, although the NW as usual will get the least with Johnoo not far behind Wink The NW facing slopes should fair best. Central ranges and Alps should do particularly well, and then hopefully get a nice SW stream to follow it up to top off the Yarra Ranges and E burbs.
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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 08, 2009 2:39 pm

Haha Luken seems like I did. Nice summery there mate that preety much sums it up I think.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Johnno on Thu Oct 08, 2009 3:26 pm

Gees am I reading EC right tonight? First has patchy rain areas Monday with the first trough and front then it has pushed the mother low North tonight into Bass Straight now Tuesday ensuring A wrap around for sure coming into the West of the state Monday night and spreading across the state Tuesday with widspread rain persisting on and south of the ranges into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning and fairly like in that scenario heavy falls east of Melbourne and catchments.. Perhaps DJ can confirm this? Looks more cold air to follow though Thursday and Friday with more showery periods and hail in the south before easing late Friday into Saturday (even though theres another weak to moderate front progged to come trough then) making sure most of the state has a wet week especially the south. Would be sensational if EC comes off.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Thu Oct 08, 2009 3:57 pm

Looking very wet with showers and areas of rain for a good period of the week and even a burst of cold air and possible low level snow coming into play late week.

Should see widespread 25-50mm falls through the south with pockets of heavier falls about the place.

Position is key and I think this will come into play in the next few days.
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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Thu Oct 08, 2009 4:16 pm

Ahead of this system, I think that if I am reading things right, there is a disturbance through western Victoria on Saturday and Sunday in the way of a trough, mostly affecting the western/wimmera districts. LI values are around -1 to -2 and temperatures are looking warm enough too I'd say for afternoon convection, and either isolated afternoon showers or thunderstorms developing through the districts I mentioned. I think it is worth a watch.

Well EC is looking like the gold tonight from Monday. As John says, patchy rain developing Monday, increasing from the west later and through much of the southern regions on Tuesday, showers through the north, local hail and cold-air thunderstorms, easing slowly on Wednesday as the low moves eastwards. Thats how I see it at the moment. Still a little while out, but models have been persistent on it. Also some strong winds will be about.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Thu Oct 08, 2009 6:05 pm

EC from the Norway site has around 21mm here for the week with more rain forecast in the SW than the NW. Are we 100% sure that site is actually EC and nothing else, could be a composite of models, because it is very rarely accurate, actually underestimates for here where GFS overestimates. Obviously no way we are going to get more rain here in SWs that's just crazy stuff.

GFS has 50mm+ for the central ranges with, as you'd expect, most of that falling in the northerlies before the SW winds confine most of the rain to the south central parts east of Melbourne. Not sure about low level snow yet, GFS model has a milder air mass this time around.

Storms a possibility for the west central ranges on the weekend but more likely in the NW where there is a spike in 750hpa RH% and warmer temps likely.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Malleefarmer on Fri Oct 09, 2009 7:33 am

Every drop would be welcome up here!

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Fri Oct 09, 2009 1:44 pm

Quite interesting here this afternoon, and looking at the satellite a fair bit of convection around this afternoon. I always knew it would be partly cloudy with some convection, but not to the extent that we are experiencing or some other areas. I think if temperatures were warmer and with a little more moisture, there could be a spark or two thrown out of a couple of thunderstorms, they would be slow-moving too, and there is a shower echo east of Melbourne too.

Was nice today despite the cloud. Warm with light winds.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Fri Oct 09, 2009 5:46 pm

Not much to add on this system. The latest model updates look very promising with showers/rain right through the coming work week.

Latest EC has about 40mm up here for the week and suggests pretty widespread 20-50mm falls. Similar with GFS. Best of it will be in the usual wet spots - the coast, the ranges and the northeast. IMHO the first burst on Monday is not likely to be the great in much of the south (due to rain shadows) but then the unstable NW/SE sequence with fronts and spring sunshine should be great.

Meanwhile looks like a fantastic spring weekend of sunshine.

PS Are we 100% sure that site is actually EC and nothing else... Yes they are the EC forecasts taken directly from the EC model.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Fri Oct 09, 2009 6:21 pm

In that case this system is looking like a big disappointment for here with neither GFS or EC particularly keen. Crying or Very sad

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Fri Oct 09, 2009 7:16 pm

Looking OK locally with falls of 40-70mm likely around the hills and eastern suburbs over the 6-7 days of showers.

Also watch for showers to tend to rain across the south as we go into Tuesday afternoon with a low and short wave of significant strength passing through.

Andrew it is not looking that bad...could be a block or like last year...
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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Karl Lijnders on Sat Oct 10, 2009 4:56 am

Latest EC has around 90mm locally for the next week!!!
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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sat Oct 10, 2009 4:59 am

A decent upgraded on the EC this morning which now has (nearly) 100mm for us this coming week. It a pretty straight-forward sequence with a strong low moving west-east near Tasmania and then consolidating in the Tasman and putting us in a prolonged unstable NW/SW sequence. There is then a cold outbreak on the back end of the low for next weekend. Monday/Tuesday/Thursday should see particularly decent bursts of showers tending to rain at times in the south and about the ranges. Should also see some thunderies given that low level moisture should be good, the uppers are cold and the spring sunshine is ramping up.

Also remarkably cool temperatures for the sequence - from about Tuesday onwards the 850Ts are near 0 to 2C so should see persistent and often heavy snowfall in the alps. I'm off next week so might put in a late season snow chase!

GFS is a little less good - mainly lacks the final cold outbreak (though being a week out that could change). The new ACCESS model sits between EC and GFS, so pretty consistent across the models at this stage.

Could be a great sequence for runoff with catchments still pretty wet from recent rain/snow.

Currently expect (about) 50mm in Ferny Creek wit a couple of really cold days thrown in (Tuesday looks like being only about 8C up here). Andrew you should get 20-40mm if the sequence holds (keep in mind that rainfall tends to drop off super fast south of you which is probably smeared out in the model forecasts).

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Rhino on Sat Oct 10, 2009 5:11 am

I here what your saying Andrew, might end up with 10mm here for the week, which will take us to around 14mm for the first half of OCT. These systems are'nt that great for us, nth wind would help.Nice to see southern areas should get a decent drop.

Rhino. Very Happy Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Oct 10, 2009 10:10 am

Yeah, on paper it actually looks really good for here, at least initially with the NWs but EC and GFS seem to indicate rain mainly in the SW and the NE ranges which is what really has me worried. Still LAPS is going for the NW flow to generate widespread heavy rain through central VIC (although leaves out the rain shadow for some odd reason) so that has my hopes up a bit. I'll take David's forecast though as the most likely scenario and that would be very good, 20-40mm, but we'll wait and see what we get. Hopefully you can do well out of that NW flow as well Rhino, Maryborough usually is in a very good position with that sort of setup. That's right about the sudden drop off in rainfall David, Places just 10km away from me and SE like Riddells Creek are well and truly in the rain shadow from Mount Macedon and average annual rainfall is about 200mm less than here and similar to Melbourne CBD.

The 'cold outbreak' days look like being SW at this stage so snow would be confined to east of Melbourne but EC has a ripper of a system coming through next weekend, still a week out I know, but that would give us another chance for a statewide outbreak with snow on the western and central ranges as well. Anyway yet another active week ahead, great to see this pattern continuing.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  typhoon29 on Sat Oct 10, 2009 1:31 pm

some convective showers are bellowing up around here and a few spits are falling. Very black high bases.
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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Oct 10, 2009 1:54 pm

Only a few degrees off a storm outbreak today for the western half I'd say, still a bit cool in the end. You can see those isolated light showers on radar east of Ballarat.

Tomorrow is much more interesting with the cold upper levels hanging around the central and eastern parts of the state and an influx of middle level moisture coming through those areas in the NE air flow. Temperatures should warm up quickly in the afternoon and the atmosphere destabilise as the cold front rapidly approaches the state. Certainly could be a few storms about and the potential for something more. It's leaning a bit more to the eastern half of the state at this stage but certainly a chance to affect western areas as well. Later in the afternoon and evening some patchy rain should start to move in from the west.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Dane on Sat Oct 10, 2009 2:24 pm

Hope You guys are right about the rain next week. We have had only 5mm's so far this month.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  norfolk on Sat Oct 10, 2009 2:33 pm

14 degrees forecast for next week? That's just not fair!

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sat Oct 10, 2009 4:09 pm

Haha, yes Tony it has been very cool lately, actually more cold I would say but things will pick up soon enough. Tomorrow will be a very nice day, warm and sunny before cloud builds up in the afternoon. At least with all this rain and cold the moisture stays in the soil so when it does warm up we won't have to feel too worried about things being dry. In around 2 weeks time I would expect a day in the high 20's to low 30's in Melbourne.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sat Oct 10, 2009 6:21 pm

droughtbreaker wrote:Only a few degrees off a storm outbreak today for the western half I'd say

Yeah, as I said yesterday, only a small risk today. The disturbance was there, moisture levels were ok, and temperatures nearly climbed high enough for isolated thunderstorms to develop over the western districts, but, they didn't in the end, and thats the wonders of our weather.

As you have said Andrew, and as I said a couple days ago, tomorrow does look a little interesting. The eastern half in particular, as the atmosphere moistens up ahead of the cold front approaching the state, and with the upper disturbance hanging around. I'd say there will be a couple of isolated afternoon thunderstorms tomorrow across the eastern parts, northeast in particular with the ranges kicking off a little action, but also the west late in the day into the early evening the risk for an isolated thunderstorm or two is there ahead of the advancing cold front.

Certainly the system in whole, looks like it will be alright. Southern areas will do well, and some colder air moving in during Monday night/Tuesday should bring some local hail and cold-air thunderstorms to southern parts too. Should get quite windy as well for southern parts in particular, gale force at times.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  hillybilly on Sun Oct 11, 2009 5:27 am

Models coming into line - GFS tending to get a bit better and EC a bit worse (for example) for this week. Looks to me like a pretty general 20-50mm sequences, but could well see 100mm in places like the Yarra Ranges, upper northeast, south Gippsland.

Should see some decent showers develop over the east but elsewhere fine today. Melbourne/central Vic is right on the edge - reflected in the forecast for showers in the east (could be a repeat of last Sunday!). There is a very big temperature gradient in the uppers today with 850T near 15C over Mildura to about 5C at Gabo Island (this arvo).

Personally, I think tomorrow's rain band looks pretty ordinary - the upslide is weakening on the system, so unlikely to deliver much away from the ranges and the far west. It looks much more promising for showers during the arvo with the second trough approaching (with upslide re-establishing) and then the passage of the strong low just south of Vic on Tuesday. Tuesday has the potential to be very wet in the south - would be surprised to see 20mm+ in Ferny Creek.

Then showers to finish the week out - Wed, Thur and Sat look the best at this stage.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  droughtbreaker on Sun Oct 11, 2009 7:30 am

Without actually really knowing anything about reading soundings Laughing, this morning's Melbourne Airport sounding looks unstable to me, plugging values around 18C and over gets some negative LI and a bit of CAPE also. At 24C LI starts approaching -3.

Models clearly indicating the activity in the eastern half of the state but as we know, models are not always 100% accurate in predicting where thunderstorms develop. Could be a surprise for Melbourne area and areas further west.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

Post  Power Storm on Sun Oct 11, 2009 8:23 am

We already have convection developing around this area. Will be interesting to see if anything evolves here this afternoon as a suprise. Eastern parts should get isolated thunderstorms this afternoon with the upper trough and cold pool of air, and an influx of moisture. LI are relatively unstable through the east at around -2 to -3.

I think the west late at night and tomorrow morning will have a better chance to get isolated thundery showers, increasing to scattered by tomorrow morning, nevertheless, the risk is not ruled out for the western parts to see an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon either.

EDIT - Starting to get some isolated shower activity over the east now. Will not be much longer until the first strikes are recorded.

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Re: Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

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