Victoria: A series of fronts and possible low July 19th-24th 2009

Well another period of weather to come across Victoria over the coming week with a series of at first weak fronts developing into a period of stronger fronts as a Long Wave Trough moves into the region mid next week. At this time there is a fair chance that much of VIC will see an accumulation of about 15-20mm.

Initially on the weekend the weather is not favourable for large quantities of rainfall with fronts sliding SE with minimal moisture embedded within the NW winds. I think a little bit of rainfall and showers developing over western and northern VIC. South central and eastern VIC away from the divide will remain mostly dry this weekend in fairly warm northerly winds for this time of year.

Into next week there are signs of fronts beginning to peak closer to the VIC border and this should see showers become more widespread and winds to increase to near gale force. Colder air behind frontal systems could see a low pressure system wind up closer to the VIC region and this could see showers tend to rain about southern and eastern VIC. Anyhow that is a way off still.

In the interim I am not totally gobsmacked by the prognostics, but there is room for improvement. I guess looking at the two big guns, US and EC are quite different in the weather developing next week with lows and fronts at different intervals and intensities. This makes forecasting quite troublesome at this time however I think overall analysis suggests fronts from Sat/Mon/Wed/Poss Thur resolving into low pressure.

As I said I am not convinced.

Over the weekend another 2-10mm across western and northern VIC mainly about the windward slopes. Cloudy right across the state. If EC is correct then a more significant band of rain and wind on Monday easing to showers later.

Lots of chunky Cus around this afternoon and south of the bay this morning, has been a great week for cloud watching.

Positive is that both EC and GFS have reasonable totals developing around Tues-Thur. A long fetch northwestly set up usually moistens up this time of year by tapping into the Indian Ocean. There is a nice infeed of tropical moisture evident on the water vapour image which extends way back to south of India

Not much else to say at this stage....

Well another wet week would make us very damp indeed up here! Today was a beautiful day up here and perfect for grass to grow and warm the soil a little. Would be unreal for some more wet weather and hopefully some of the areas that have been missing out to get a drink. Looking like the grampians could get another good drink this week and looking at the inflows starting to flow into dams down there hopefully we can get some solid inflows and storage rises.

The dams in the Grampians have risen 1.5% in the last week and the wimmera river will flow into Horsham for the first time in 10 years.
Cant see much in this next system but hopefully some more up in the storage areas.

Both major models have what looks to be a short-lived but intense low happening Tuesday through to Thursday with very narrow gaps in the isobars so a strong SW blast through central and eastern Vic with some good falls possible in the Melbourne catchments.

Well not much today apart from isolated showers about the west, particularly the southwest where an isolated thunderstorm is possible.

I must say it is very windy here, touching probably gale force.

Looking more and more likely that this week will mainly be a Southern Vic event and little up in the North this time especially the NW. At this stage I expect
0-5mm for you Adon up your way.

Had a few short sharp showers down here in Sandy Point. Not much in them ATM though we are inline for the showers going through Mt Gambier later in the evening.

Not much in this first system for most of Vic - maybe 2mm if your lucky (with the action likely to hug the southwest and coast.

Looks better from Tuesday onwards.

PS curious that EC continues the NW flow almost without interuption right through for the next ~10 days. Only a brief spell of SW flow mid week.

Bit of fizzer in the end for southern Vic - just 0.4mm down here and most places less than 1mm. Rather better the north - 9.8mm at Buller, 7.4mm Doherty and 7.0mm Jamieson the high falls.

Not a lot happening next 48 hours with showers largely confined to the NE ranges and far southwest. Wednesday's low is starting to look very interesting - with a period of heavy showers and very strong winds likely as the low passes through Bass Strait.

We had quite a few showers here but they were so brief I doubt we got much at all. I suspect there were higher falls on the other side of the range (NW side). Cloudy and windy again today.

4mm at Kyneton and Blue Mountain (near Trentham) so definitely the mountains were a huge barrier for the showers.

Well I was up in the central ranges yesterday and the effect Macedon had on the cloud development was incredible. Very foggy in the Macedon shire with very low scud in a northerly wind. Not surprised at 5mm in the Kyenton region as drizzle was about yesterday evening there.

Had about 0.8mm overnight. A very spring like day with strong northerly winds here. Could see a period of rain mud week across the south.

well it has been clear blue sunny skies for most of the weekend. Have seen no rain/showers/drizzle at all and while there were some cloudy times yesterday, been totally sunny today. Yep, another fizzer.

Did anyone spot the sundog this afternoon at around 4pm? I've seen several in my time, but this was by far the brightest and most colourful! There wasn't one on the right side, just the left at the time I was observing it. Unfortunately, only a few photos on a borrowed camera, so unsure how they will turn out.

Great to see something unusual for a change! Takes the boredom out of the rest of the weather at the moment! My inlaws were amazed as they had never seen anything like it before!

Didnt get to see it, would have loved too. Hope your Photo's turned out and you do share..

Didn't happen to see the sundog IS but they are common at this time of year.

Looking interesting still midweek with quite showery and windy conditions for southern VIC. 10-20mm looks ok still but will refine with time. Very windy period coming up aswell with moderate gales developing mid week.

Hopefully some follow up fronts on the weekend come off.

Mild and windy (and dry here) overnight with dew points dropping right away - currently on 4C. Min of 10C which is warm for this time of year. Must admit today reminds me of 2002 (El Nino)... hopefully not the start of the shift towards even drier conditions.

BTW worth keeping an eye on the radar today. We have strong warm air advection developing today and a rain band will pass over Tassie and probably just scrape southern Vic. Not a lot in it but, could see a mm or two in coastal areas and possibly sneaking into Melbourne's eastern/southern suburbs.

Looking good for Wednesday - EC has the low passing over Wilsons Prom at ~999hPa with a burst of heavy showers/rain. Would expect 10-20mm up here out of the sequence, and generally looks OK for most of southern Vic.

URK!!! I don't like the sound of that comparison!! Alas the price you pay for living here!

Anyhow already the temp is rising. May see the odd 20C in Melbourne.

Getting very windy here

Hit 21C in parts of the western suburbs earlier too.

Strange weather indeed. Taken the day off work to recover from this killer flu, and some steady strong winds, and mild air temp...not quite what i would normally associate with this time of year. Sitting on about 18.8 according to my thermometer...could be off a little though (really need to buy that weather station i keep drooling over) Gusts are kicking up quite strong in the last 30 minutes or so, just after i cleaned all the leaves up on the weekend. Interesting to see what will happen this evening, i think HillBilly is right, what little falls we get may just clip the Frankston area, but not much further north or east of that. However, this is Melbourne, so we will wait and see.

Pretty windy here, just had a wind gust 61km/h. Currently 18C

Wind has dropped down up here with the incoming As/Ac. Actually almost looks like it could spit some rain Topped out at 14.1C which is about 5C above average for us.

The band SW of Mt Gambier is throwing out quite a lot of lightning (and stretches almost back to Neptune Island. Shame it doesn't want to move east

Yeah some thunderstorms are possible in the southwest this afternoon and the shear profile IMO is indicating some supercell activity once again possible, therefore the chance for large hailstones and damaging winds stronger then indicated this afternoon.

Stunning sunset in Melbourne tonight from the Dandenongs - lots of orange and red (wonder if there is some smoke or dust being brought down in the NW flow).

Storms scraping through Bass Strait (as pretty much expected but As/Ac is thickening - EC has nearly 5mm overnight along the very exposed coast - so my gauge at Sandy Point might record a bit).

Wednesday systems is looking like quite a doozie - low of about 995hPa passing just south of the heads and crossing just north of Wilson Prom. Should see a period of heavy showers/rain, though clearing reasonably quickly ahead of the weekend's system (which is looking more impressive ).

Would guess about 20mm in Ferny Creek which will see us close on our monthly average.