Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

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Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Mon Nov 16, 2009 6:21 am

Well some end is in reach to this foul heat wave affecting SE Australia. A broad area of instability is likely to form mid week and tap into large amounts of moisture streaming in from the NW ahead of a large trough. This funnel showers and thunderstorms through VIC from Thursday mainly west and north and throughout Friday and tending to rain periods through the weekend.

Some fairly wet storms are possible and lots of junky cloud will inhibit clear air cells so not photogenic but potentially productive. Will be a waiting game but EC and US giving us about 25-75mm across the state.

Could see average rain achieved in a system like this.

Keep eyes focussee on the secondary low early next week.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Malleefarmer on Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:30 pm

Well harvest is off now for us but many still going so would be some nervous bloke around but still a way off so things could change. Maybe not from this particular event but I want a wet summer to get some moisture in the soil for next year.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Stratospear on Mon Nov 16, 2009 12:35 pm

Massive downgrade for Victoria in latest GFS. Heavy rain north of the Murray (100mm near Menindee - Ivanhoe) and into NE Vic, but not much for the rest of Vic.... All the models will probably chop and change over the next few days so not reading too much into it just yet.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Rhino on Mon Nov 16, 2009 1:01 pm

Only looking at GFS, for the last couple of model runs band of heavy rain areas seem to be focused around nth vic, so moving that area further nth by the looks but I would wan't to see where it posistions that band of heavier rain over the next 24 hrs of model runs. Hopefully brings that band back down into Vic in tonights run. Not good if it stays around sth NSW or moves it further Nth. Only a couple of runs though and are still hopeful of something decent. Very Happy

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  rikjpool on Mon Nov 16, 2009 2:00 pm

Hnmm, forcast been upgraded to Possible storms on Friday now for here with a max of 40C being forcasted for Thursday now.

On a side note, im sending my camera away to get the sensor cleaned, you think Next week will be eventless enough to send away for a week? Smile
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Mon Nov 16, 2009 3:24 pm

rikjpool wrote:Hnmm, forcast been upgraded to Possible storms on Friday now for here with a max of 40C being forcasted for Thursday now.

On a side note, im sending my camera away to get the sensor cleaned, you think Next week will be eventless enough to send away for a week? Smile

Anything is possible next week Rik.

As for this week Latest EC really hasn't downgraded that much still has 30mm for Melbourne Friday to Sunday unlike GFS which has gone from 60mm to 10mm almost lol pushing the rain to far North.
EC also has Isolated showers possibly thundery on the ranges Wednesday and Thursday.
Latest NOGAPS still has 20-40mm as well for Melbounre Friday/Saturday. So still looks preety good to me apart from GFS doing its usual tricks.


After Sunday its all up in the air every model has a different scenario tonight for early/mid next week but all have a common theme which is Upper Cold air will come into play over SA Sunday/Monday but how it plays out remains to be seen

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Rhino on Mon Nov 16, 2009 3:29 pm

BOM forecast for here is very tasty, 6 days of storms or rain, OCF giving around 40mm for the same period. Will be expecting some of that wet stuff by the looks, just how much and at what intensity it seems. Very Happy

Rhino. Smile Smile

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Mon Nov 16, 2009 3:50 pm

Yeah Rhino not looking to bad at all at this stage of the game.

Latest EC..

http://www.yr.no/place/Australia/Victoria/Melbourne/long.html

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  firestorm on Mon Nov 16, 2009 4:02 pm

sure hoping we get sum rain would be greatful considering we have had a whoping 2.6mm for the month Mad

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  I_Love_Storms on Mon Nov 16, 2009 5:38 pm

GFS has a monster low pressure system south west of Tas next Monday night, if only it can creep closer to us!

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Mon Nov 16, 2009 6:53 pm

Models doing weird things atm, not wanting to settle at all. GFS ramps rainfall right up again in the latest run with central and eastern areas including Melbourne and surrounds now looking at 50-75mm mostly over the weekend. It seems to stall things again though with the warm air stuck to our east and a massive pool of cold air just on the border and extending way into central Aus to our west. I have a hint of a feeling that we might be seeing the reverse of what we are having with this heatwave in the last week of the month with a massive cold pool stuck over us for days. GFS seems to be working towards this.

The general trend though is all over the place and with a few days to go before the 'event' starts the models should start to settle down a bit in future runs. Still expecting a fair bit of divergence between models though right up to and even during the event, it does seem a fairly complex and volatile situation.

EDIT: Just saw the synoptic pattern for the sequence and I can see what GFS is trying to do now after Monday with the cold pool stalling to the west. Basically a massive inland upper low and cold pool and easterly flow to the east of it roughly over us. Could be the early signs of a genuine easterly dip on the cards.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Nov 17, 2009 4:23 am

Good forecast Andrew. Summed it up well.

Looking increasingly likely for thundery days Thurs-Sat with showers or rain in between. US giving us up to 50mm. EC has around 20-30mm locally with the inital system and up to 50mm following with the cold pool.

Seems to me that the secondary cold pool will form a gypsy low and subsequently put a region of SE Australia under water. It is a bomb waiting to go off.

Watch for night storms Friday particularly.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Tue Nov 17, 2009 8:00 am

I expect this warm to hot dry spell to come to abrupt end around the 18th to 20th November at least EC has been hinting at that last couple of runs & with all that moisture around and very warm ssts NW of Australia it should help us for some sort of decent rain event for then


I made that comment 10 days ago on Saturday November 7th in the 1st heatwave thread Nov 7th -12th on Page 4 and it looks like the planets are all aliging for something fairly decent. Made the call then given a few factors that I was starting to see and a pattern that was starting to emerge. Fingers crossed guys.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  AUS_Twisted on Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:08 am

rikjpool wrote:
On a side note, im sending my camera away to get the sensor cleaned, you think Next week will be eventless enough to send away for a week? Smile

I'd seriously look into buying a sensor cleaning kit and doing it yourself, it can be done in 5 minutes and there's really no risk involved if your carefull.
I have one of these kits for the 30D and have cleaned the sensor twice now - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lpSi27u4azQ

This is the one I bought for my 30D but from a Aussie online shop, can't remember the site now but a few sell it
http://www.tallyns.com/tpp/amazing/itemdesc.asp?ic=IK2&eq=&Tp=

What body do you have?
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:28 am

I'm stunned in the lack of interest in this system so far. Seems like a lot is going our way and it may be because some are just looking at BSCH rainfall.

JMA has heavy rain of 30-70mm across a fair whack of the state including Melbourne, NOGAPS has stormy conditions Friday into Saturday of 30-60mm over much of central and northern VIC. UK indicating thundery spells moving down from the NW during Thursday afternoon.

EC looks good as well Smile
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Sniper on Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:31 am

Hi Karlos,
I am very interested, but just in a lull at the moment. All the models are looking very nice, but still 24-36 hours away from getting a more accurate assessment.

Nice mild day statewide with no locations currently over 30. Very Happy

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Twister on Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:40 am

I to am just waiting, plus Exam tomorrow very little time to have an in depth look.

I am giving it till tomorrow night Models look good, but are only a guide and have to take them with a grain of salt.

I am watching the first system move up just Sw of WA atm.
It shall be interesting from Thursday though Monday cant see these massive falls but should be a few 30mm falls about but still early and giving models another 36 hours before getting excited

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Nov 17, 2009 11:51 am

Good luck Dean!!! Then you can enjoy the storms if they come!!!

Yes I tend to agree with Wes and yourself. Another day is needed. Keep cameras on standby as early as Thursday.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Bobman on Tue Nov 17, 2009 12:49 pm

Weather.com.au has about 25mm by Sunday, but I've seen that in the past and the day before it was quickly downgraded to 1mm.

Hopefully Saturday packs a punch as everyone suggests.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  AmaroK on Tue Nov 17, 2009 1:23 pm

As always i am taking a more skeptical look at the situation over the next few days. Tomorrows models will definitely paint a more accurate picture, but with LI's at best -2 around most areas of the state, something definitely needs to change in the next couple of days. If we can get some activity earlier on Friday, but without capping the heat off, Friday night through to Saturday could be a corker.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Johnno on Tue Nov 17, 2009 1:26 pm

The heat and dry has gotten to a few people I suppose and I can't really blame them but there is something about the next week that I feel good about I think Karl is feeling and thinking the same way.

We have 2 Upper highs one on the West coast of Australia and one on the east coast of Australia progged for later this week, weekend and early next week and in all the time I have been viewing the models I have never seen this set up so it hasn't happend for years what the models are progging.. What does this mean? Well if you have 2 Upper highs anchored off both sides of Australia that sandwitches the LWT (Long wave trough) inbetween supresses it like a pressure cooker waiting to explode (shoot cold air up in this case Northwards as the LWT moves ever so slowly Eastwards) So once again what this all mean? Well that would ensure cold/unstable air mixing in with the hotter and more moist air East of the LWT and with NW infeed and a strong Jet over us from the NW which barely moves thanks to the Upper highs and their positions it should ensure us with systems developing over us or near us for the coming week.

GFS has cranked up the rain again giving most of the state at least 25mm until Tuesday next week and up to 50mm if not more for the NE Ranges, it now has both cold pools the Friday one interacting the with moist hot air and the Monday cold pool which then once again just sits over SE Australia no where to go and moves South eventually to possibily bomb into a low near us or over us.. The GFS scenario isn't far fetched either given what EC was showing this morning. Nevetheless guys I think its time to get out the cameras, overcoats and umbrellas out I've had a good feel about this since the 6/7th of November that something was brewing about this time and alot of things are falling into line. I'm usually not one to talk things ups but I am sticking my neck out for this case that most of us yes MOST will get at least 20mm by Monday night and thats my conservative estimate if I were to let myself go I could easily say more but will leave it like that for the moment.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  hillybilly on Tue Nov 17, 2009 3:15 pm

Latest EC has 50-100mm across Melbourne on Saturday. We can always hope!

However, it has downgraded for Friday with the rain not coming in to very late. This suggests that Friday could be very hot.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  mick on Tue Nov 17, 2009 3:33 pm

The lovely Lavinnia just said thebest rain in two months is on the way and it might get to 40 on thursday if the sea breeze doesnt kick in.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  Karl Lijnders on Tue Nov 17, 2009 3:39 pm

It looks very promising. The rain on Saturday looks particularly thundery from the middle levels so it could be quite useful and somewhat heavy enough for localised flash flooding at this time but plenty of time for that to alter. But EC is moving into line with NOGAPS and JMA.

Interesting that the forecast is going for thunderstorms (mostly dry I suspect) early on Thursday so with diurnal heating I would think there is a risk later in the day too.
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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

Post  droughtbreaker on Tue Nov 17, 2009 4:05 pm

EC is saying 50mm for my area on Saturday just to give an indication of how explosive this setup has the potential to be. Once we get the middle level moisture coming in Thursday/Friday and mix that with 850T in the low 20s and significant low pressure already over us by then (so the atmosphere already has a tendency to buoyancy even without heating) and it gets pretty interesting for storms before Saturday. None of the models seem to pick convective rainfall well more than a day out, and even do poorly on the day I find. It all comes down to the setup on the morning and if Melbourne breaks the 40C mark on Thursday that translates to a huge amount of energy available for storms.

I'm with John and Karl on this, John summed it up perfectly in his last post. We have a 'stand off' between very warm air to our east and a large cold pool to our west, all very slow moving and we're in the middle, right at the spot where the colder air is forcing the hot and humid air to rise. Add a major trough and a cold front to the mix on Saturday and Monday and you know what happens next. Wink After that we have almost the ideal setup for an easterly dip i.e. an inland upper low/cold pool that meets a humid easterly flow as it approaches us and bombs a surface low over us that is very slow moving, in the past we have had these particular systems sit over us for 2 to 3 days and I have recorded close to 100mm in a day from them and 120mm-170mm in a 2 day period in the local area. Mid November 1998 was a major instance of this sort of system which John and I discussed earlier in this thread (or the heatwave one I've forgotten which). They tend to form best when we are in the 'sandwich' between two stubborn upper highs, which John mentioned in his post.

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Re: Victoria: Broad area of low pressure - November 19th-25th 2009.

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