Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

light rain in st arnaud atm. looks to be clearing a bit. Water over road in quite a few parts particularly around avoca. Must do some work- but ill keep y'all posted on what happens out this way.

Just 1mm and a couple of distant rumbles here earlier. Sun is out and 21/18. Should be plenty of action later. Pity I will be in Hospital.

David wrote:Latest GFS has 75mm+ over Melbourne during the next 24 hours.

Who thinks this will eventuate??
Massive if it comes off.

Just got back, traffic was chaos on the way back. Uploading some images now, and will post in about 15-30mins. managed to get west of Melton, maybe 5mins too late, only had enough time to snap a couple panos, then had to jump into the cars as 50mm rain plates came pelting down.

Got rain coming down in heavier showers and only light stuff inbetween. Very warm considering there has been no sun at all. Looks like the cloudband will be over us until mid to late arvo unless is breaks within the cloudband. Then I reckon it will explode here

Still getting use to my new 17mm tilt shift lens, so not the best result. But with the extra wide angle manage to get more of the the striations over head. I as probably on least photogenic side of the roll cloud / gust front, unfortunately there was no time to find a right hand turn off the Western Fwy and with so much traffic, decided looking west had to do. Had a green tinge in the precip area, so there could have been some small hail in it perhaps, or just some lighting effects.

Beautiful greg, Im glad it kept some of its shape for you.

It eventually got shrouded in rain Rikki, maybe those further south may had had a better view of it. The eastern half of what i saw was more typical of a roll cloud with less precip behind it, but like i said i wasn't able to find a turn off to the right along the fwy, oh well. Just an entree for this avo;)
Thanks for the heads up mate BTW;)

Lovely shot there Greg. And well done getting out there early doors!!

Todays set-up has me pretty confident that we will see a December'03 style event, only this time it will occur during daylight hours. Maybe not get 100mm+ totals, but the rainfall rates will be the major problem. BOM is very bullish about these rainfall totals and any clearance between now and 2pm in central areas will only supercharge this system. As already mentioned, Flash flooding will be a major problem, especially around Merri Creek, Gardiners Creek, Dynon Road, parts of Southbank and South Melbourne.

Excellent greg!! Love the mood of the sky!

Well I think 100mm is a shoo in. Calm before the storm.

Remember the higest risk of flooding will be the Dandenong Creek region.

Nice pick-up Karl, forgot about Dandy Creek

22/17 at the mo!

Rain intensifying quite significantly out here in the west. I would expect some flooding around this area and ballarat soon as there is heaps of water around already making driving treaturous!

By the way the heavy rain in Southern NSW and the thundery rain to the south of Melbourne will be joined together by convective rainfall in the next 6hrs. That's where Melbourne could get slammed.

Todays Fire Briefing which provides further details as to what's in store.

IDV18600
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria

Fire Weather Briefing for Victoria
Issued at 10:51 am EDT on Thursday 26 November 2009.

Estimates Today:
The latest satellite sequence indicates the upper low over South Australia moving toward Victoria. A plume of moisture associated with the upper low is being advected across Victoria. A humid and unstable airmass is likely to result in rainfall in most parts with a high probability of locally heavy falls. The surface pressure pattern is a little complex with a mesoscale low over the northeast connected to a trough approaching the southwest of the State. Generally airflow will be from the north to northeast and could be quite fresh at times. Maximum temperature may not be realised in some parts due to cloud and precipitation. A Severe Weather Warning for Flash Flood is current.

Observational Network Status:
Western Port is offline.

Weather Situation:
An upper level trough approaching northwest Victoria will cross the State late
today and tonight. A low pressure system will move from the Bight towards
southwest Victoria late Friday. An associated trough will reach western Victoria Friday afternoon, clearing eastern Victoria early Saturday. The low will intensify but will remain near southwest Victoria during Saturday then will weaken on Sunday as it moves eastwards, reaching the Tasman Sea Sunday afternoon.

24 Hour Rainfall to 9am:
Many locations over western and central parts received rainfall up to 10mm to 9am this morning. Higher totals related to thunderstorm activity resulted in totals of 10 to 30 mm. Severe thunderstorms last in the northwest resulted in localised intense falls up to 6mm - Woomelang recorded 59.4mm, Sea Lake, 42.4mm and Inglewood 41.2mm.

Weather Today:
Showers tending to rain areas. Scattered thunderstorms with local heavy falls possible. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms over East Gippsland. Strong wind squalls and possible hail with thunderstorms. Mild to warm and humid with moderate northerly winds, locally fresh during the afternoon. Afternoon coastal seabreezes in Gippsland.

Thanks lads.

I think you're right Karl, there will be some parts smashing 100mm. From the rain rate that i briefly got caught in i can suggest rain rates around the 1mm per minute should any intense storms pass overhead. Really heavy tropical style precip and our creeks aren't set up to take such deluges.

Sun was out here a moment ago.....

Hey guys,

24/66 here What a fantastic setup we have for this arvo and tonight for big rain and storms Sun is trying to pop out and the more the better!!

Todays TS Forecast. Please note that BOM have not updated the chart, but going off the description you wil lget the picture!!!

IDV65758
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Issued at 11:23 am Thursday, 26 November 2009,
Valid until midnight on Thursday, 26 November 2009.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected, with a lower risk over the southeast. High surface moisture levels and a very unstable atmosphere are likely to lead to locally heavy falls, strong winds and possible large hail. A Severe Weather Warning for flash flooding is current for all districts except Gippsland.

Back from re-plotting some Temp/DP's into BSCH soundings section for Melb AP.

Temp/DP of 25/20 will result in 1122 CAPE & -3 LI
Temp/DP of 27/20 will result in 1484 CAPE & -4 LI
Temp/DP of 29/20 will result in 1886 CAPE & -4.84 LI

Melb Airport currently sitting on 22/18.

Welcome Robbie Keep us informed whats happening your neck of the woods.

Thanks for that Wes. Oh boy it has that feel and look about it doesn't it & GFS is going off its head!

Cheers John!
On the SatPic, that blob currently over the Northern border has an ominous look about it, exploding at each frame. The tilt/axis of this low will have some pretty mean cells coming in from Mansfield/Lake Eildon, over the Black Spur thru the Yarra Valley and into Melbourne.

Some of the more intense cells I have seen that far off to the north on radar. Sign of things to come.

Very hot sun here!!!

Another squall line developing nw of bendigo;) Should see this develops as it goes.

Starting to get organised north of here now... looks very messy still though, should get some nice structure as it builds...

Sun almost broke through here for a short time but thickening up again. Looks like another line coming into NW Vic near Mildura. NOt thundery so far but worth keeping an eye on.