Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

14mm up here so far for the event. Not great, but an OK start. Should see at least another 20mm by Monday (perhaps double that).

BTW peak rainfall rate up here today of 189mm/hr - must of been for about 3 minutes

IR sat loop shows plenty of cloud to plume down from almost due N over Vic tonight, backed by a knot of storms over central S NSW atm following it.

Does anyone agree that diurnal cooling will give most of Central/E Vic a night of light but steady rain? And thats aside from further storms that will surely influence some parts of Vic tonight?

We've got calm humid conditions here with mid level cloud made interesting by dark patches of scud clinging underneath in sections - all streaming in steadily from what looks like due N (where the radar shows rain persiting on the N side of the mountains). Strange to be still so muggy here despite the 14.5mm thundery rain earlier.

I suspect those storms around the Mallee would be wetter than they look. Radar up that way does'nt do it justice. Woomelang storm last night as an example, 59mm and nothing more than a yellow spot.
Starting to build nth of Bendigo and sth of Swan Hill.

Rhino.

It's hard to tell Petros. As Rhino gleaned, activity still strong around the Mallee, however cells travelling through North Central areas appear to be dying off. Yet Apollo Bay and Cape Nelson are receiving a nice drop. My heart suggests not that much overnight, but I could be totally wrong.

Funny up here atm. Can hear thunder to the east out of that line going up to Balranald but here not much going on at all. Looks like some rain off to the West and it looks on rdar to be slowly heading our way. Seems as we are about in the centre of the low now so I reckon we will not get any more storms but may get some more rain. Radar up here is usless most of the time esp if the rain is coming from the W to S. But unless things fire up after dark we are out of the woods for big rain for today at least.

David wrote:What a storm 33mm in just over 10 minutes strong gusts and about 15 flangs, I can't remember having some many flangs in a storm. Lost power for over 2 hours.

Dosent mean much to us readers when you dont post your location David????

Is a bit of a tricky one. I would say most thunderstorm activity filtering in from New South Wales tonight will be restricted to northern parts (NC and NE districts), whilst elsehwere sees scattered showers which will be more widespread over the west tonight. However, there is still the risk for thunderstorms across the state, but mostly far north tonight.

Different story again tomorrow. A low will approach the southwest coast of Victoria and another trough will push into the west of the state during the afternoon. Its shaping to be another very active day, particularly for western districts with severe thunderstorms likely - damaging winds, large hailstones and flash flooding. Rain areas as well for the western district late tomorrow or at night. Hopefully a bit more clearing in the cloud tomorrow ahead of the next system! LI's are down to -7 across the west and its still very moist in the atmos.

EDIT: We have been under moderate rainfall for the past 2 hours! Does not look like easing up anytime soon either. Radar indicating the rain wrapping around back into our area and radar is continiously filling up over my parts.

Malleefarmer wrote:Funny up here atm. Can hear thunder to the east out of that line going up to Balranald but here not much going on at all. Looks like some rain off to the West and it looks on rdar to be slowly heading our way. Seems as we are about in the centre of the low now so I reckon we will not get any more storms but may get some more rain. Radar up here is usless most of the time esp if the rain is coming from the W to S. But unless things fire up after dark we are out of the woods for big rain for today at least.

It must be a torrid time in the grain belt. So close but yet so far.... all we can do is hope.

16.7mm here. Some of it early this morning and some of it mid afternoon by the looks of things. Lots of strikes out the office window around 2:30pm, couldn't hear the thunder though inside. Very heavy rain in Nth Melbourne for about 10 minutes and then a few showers afterwards. As Dagget mentioned earlier, trains were completely stuffed on multiple lines with confusing and inadequate announcements at the station. Power cut to the signals at Sunshine station yet again, every time there is lightning it happens, has for years, no one has ever tried to fix the problem. Melbourne truly has a crap public transport system, I'd expect better from Nairobi or Addis Ababa. Anyway enough of that and back to weather discussion.

Not a great deal more in the progs for central. Maybe another 15-20mm, a bit confusing because the upper trough has not crossed yet and tomorrow still looks very volatile, the strong low is still there for the weekend so probably wouldn't be taking model outputs as gospel, still never good to see downgrades though.

I've lost a bit of interest in this system now because as long as I'm stuck inside in Melbourne there is not much to see or report. Hopefully the bulk of the action is later tomorrow, evening into night.

Some of that stuff up north will surely be strong enough to push its way south, if it can get down here there is still a ton of moisture down here for it to deliver a good punch.

Tonight reminds me a lot of a night a few years ago..maybe the December 03 event where they didn't expect much overnight and a big cell just deluged over Melb metro area for hours.

droughtbreaker wrote:Not a great deal more in the progs for central. Maybe another 15-20mm, a bit confusing because the upper trough has not crossed yet

15-20mm more on top of our 14.5mm today.... PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Same thoughts out this way ILS.

I know some of you did not believe me, particularly the Trampoline story. Well I too questioned my source (8 year old daughter). But why would she make up such a story. Well it hit me as I travelled south across Soldiers Road over the Berwick bypass bridge. Every fourth tree was damaged in some way and a couple left me aghast. See pictures below. (sorry I am very much a backyard amateur at this)

Click on images for large (very) image

Small Tree


Another smallish Tree




Very Large Pine Tree snapped like a toothpick




Neighbours have some fences to repair


And the trampoline which has travelled from the house in the background with the downed fence (70+ metres)



what a day.

Vic radar has rain going every direction, pretty messy at the moment. Don't know which way it will go overnight. Could be a flop or decent rain for some but lets see.

Rhino.

still nothing exciting super dark to the west with plenty of rain 15km that way it just wont push any further this way atm but its a very nice night outside light Northly temp sitting 20.5 with RH 88%.

Would love to be proved wrong ILS. I am watching an area just north of Bendigo atm, not sure if its got what it takes to step up into a thunderstorm, but we shall see. I am still thinking most activity restricted to Northern Country and Northeast tonight ... maybe a couple of rougue storms kicked down to central parts overnight.

With the lower upper temps and trough, surely nocturnal cooling will be a factor again like it was overnight and early this morning. I just can't see why we should have a quiet night of weather with an upper trough crossing us. BOM seem to think we will get rain overnight

there were some crazy downdrafts, updrafts and inside out drafts with the storm here

when it came across before the rain i saw leaves and sticks and small braches go rushing up the road one direction and collect in a pile, then next thing i saw it all going back the other way just as quickly!

thats how my christmas lights were lifted up and flung backwards into the gutter, pulling the clamp on gutter clips out.....trees tend to cope well when the wind blows one way but when it goes one way, then the next, expecially with sudden rain in hot weather it just snaps

The Shepparton band is looking alright, I am more interested in the stuff behind it though. Could be a lot there, but it might not be showing up as yet. We will know soon.

20mm from this morning's thundery rain all over by 10am. No rain since. Humid as. Tomorrow afternoon is the next event me thinks. I call no joy for this evening here.

That 'rain' band that just came through was only Mist. Still have hopes for a decent drop tonight. Look at what SA had last night, all night. There is still plenty of moisture, and instabilty out there.

Radar seems to be showing a trend for development in recent frames. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that nocturnal cooling will cause further storms tonight. Any sort of upper feature makes this possible compared to days where the upper levels are warm and convection drops right away with the sun.

typhoon29 wrote:20mm from this morning's thundery rain all over by 10am. No rain since. Humid as. Tomorrow afternoon is the next event me thinks. I call no joy for this evening here.

A cell has popped up near Blackwood

I think we are in for some more action tonight now...this next frame is giving me more confidence.

Going to agree with you Andrew. Cell just north of Heathcote keeping strong as it heads south. It is also kicking off rogue cells ahead of it, see Daylesford in last frame!

By the looks of the radar we are smack in the middle of the low now so any rain will be coming from the WSW now. Funny, once the low started to move it really picked up speed. Should be in the tasman by morning