Follow up rain-storms Nov 26-29th.

wintry day here today. heavy showers coming up from the south. Wouldn't be surprised if there is some small hail today around the place.

Well, perhaps a bit selfish, but I'm waiting for the winds to shift general S/SE so I can get the full benefit of the warm bay intensifying cold air showers. Looks like this should start to happen later in the day (although models don't show it, SE winds but no intensification of showers).

Atm, it looks OK with the main area of showers west of the CBD but the orientation is not the best locally when you consider the topography. Still a bit too S/SW. Of course that is probably selfishness coming through there , but really I'd just love one day where we get smashed by heavy showers all day with hail etc. We've had a lot of rain over the past week and a half but it has lacked the excitement of squalls, hail, large temp drops etc. for the most part.

Personally I would be expecting scattered showers today pretty much everywhere on and south of the ranges as it seems easily unstable enough for showers to form without help from the bay.

EDIT: Pardon my ignorance, but could waterspouts be a possibility during today with some of those cells tracking over the bay rather intense, with the warm bay helping things out?

Some massive towers going up now. Pretty much the whole southern and western sky is one massive column of Cj towers, soon to become Cb. Starting to get very interesting, still plenty of heating to come.

Johnno wrote:Well had 13.5mm here last night which takes me to almost an Inch for this event considering I had a poor start Thursday thats a nice return in the end.

Up to 96.5mm for the month here which makes it the wettest month since the Feb 05 event so its almost taken 5 years before we have seen another very month this way. City up to 91mm also the wettest month since Feb 05.

Another thing.. As we stand at this moment the City had had its exact average Spring rain now after a decent September, Poor October but excellent November and thats the 1st time that we have reached our "seasonal" rainfall average since the Summer of 2005/06 since then every season we have had below average rainfall.

Eastern suburbs have had a great Spring if you add the big downpours/storms at the end of October some suburbs that way had close to average rainfall for the month which means anywhere that way they have had an above average Spring interms of rainfall so all in all great turn around lets hope it lasts.

Had 35mm since Thur here. What you say puts all this recent rain into context. Guess we can only hope that this is the start of a return to 'normal' patterns.
I remember sitting in the yard 2 weeknds ago looking at my rain guage sitting on 12mm since the start of October. The water was nearly getting mould on it. Since then it rocketed up to 100mm- emptied the guage and have another 25mm in there. Hoping to get underneath something soon, in line for the showers moving up past the cbd from the south- another 5mm perhaps looks a chance. Will round up a great month.

Just got slammed by that mini red cell, heavy rain & Thunder!!

Attempting to add photo taken this morning from The Basin.
Just starting to get some more rain here now.

Thumping rainfall here has turned my front yard to a lake again and vegie patch is under water again. 5mm in about 10 minutes and still coming down all be it fat and steady.

This is an incredible last two weeks here. We have had heavy rain from every direction now!!

Just did a dash to the gauge & have had 7mm in about 10-15 minutes here, puddles & mini rivers everywhere and it's only just starting to clear up.

Thats great skywalker! Just wondering are you in Sunshine or Burnside?

Johnno wrote:Thats great skywalker! Just wondering are you in Sunshine or Burnside?

We are getting slammed again John just as I type. Sensational stuff!!

I'm virtually in Caroline Springs although my estate falls under Burnside Heights. It's silly as Caroline Springs Centre virtually backs onto it.
I work in West Sunshine/Laverton so thats why you have probably heard me mention Sunshine a few times.

Melbourne Skywalker wrote:

Johnno wrote:Thats great skywalker! Just wondering are you in Sunshine or Burnside?

We are getting slammed again John just as I type. Sensational stuff!!

I'm virtually in Caroline Springs although my estate falls under Burnside Heights. It's silly as Caroline Springs Centre virtually backs onto it.
I work in West Sunshine/Laverton so thats why you have probably heard me mention Sunshine a few times.

Thanks for clearing that up mate

No worries John.

Stopped here now, 11mm all up from that. We have offically cracked 100mm for the month!!

Cannot remember the last time that happened. Karl has summed it up already how great this month has been.

these showers are great and just keep on coming through with drizzle in between, slow and steady here today

Yes, I haven't had much since 9am but the City has had another 5.4mm with a shower lagging through that area the past hour. The offical figure for the month there is 95.6mm only another 4.4mm to break the BIG 100mm be touch and go if it happens not much happening over the bay at the moment

It is raining heavily here. On the edge of a storm to my east. Outflow winds of 20 knots from the ESE here.

Convection galore still south of here.

Well, I'm getting dudded big time today with heavy showers passing literally metres away from here whilst we get stuck with the light to moderate edge of them and only for very brief periods. Desperately need the flow to turn S/SE but it's not going to happen during day time so we'll be left with persistient drizzly showers overnight and tomorrow I guess. Needed the low to be 100km further north then the flow would be S/SE.

It is about to slam itself down here. Looking at another 5mm at least in as many minutes!!!

we had a massive shower in the last 10mins, very heavy indeed! The Cu towers have very crisp tops to them. Surprised that there hasn't been any hail.

Been outside cleaning up branches from cut down tree and only had 2mm since 9am.
Very steamy working. Once again Karl your copping it.
Only need 2.5mm to get 100mm..

Another 6.6mm here in as many minutes. Rainfall as heavy as Thursdays storm!!!

Looks like I am sitting on 13mm for the day here which is insane!! What a way to end spring!!!

droughtbreaker wrote:Well, I'm getting dudded big time today with heavy showers passing literally metres away from here whilst we get stuck with the light to moderate edge of them and only for very brief periods. Desperately need the flow to turn S/SE but it's not going to happen during day time so we'll be left with persistient drizzly showers overnight and tomorrow I guess. Needed the low to be 100km further north then the flow would be S/SE.

You would want the airstream to be SSE at nightfall Andrew if you want a Bay stream there not during the day, as you can see during the day there are very few showers on and near the bay at the moment, during the day the bay acts as a liability rather than an asset for showers if you want showers your better getting them off the land any direction bar SSE if its during the day.

The airstream will turn more SE but won't be til later tonight or overnight it may help you then as the land cools to temps below the bay which attracts the cloud and showers to develop over the bay and move towards land which isn't happening now during the daytime hours.

Im looking towards the bay (My south) at the moment Andrew and all I can see is blue skies

Can see convection slowly developing towards the far SW and S sky. Watch that convergence band over the Bellarine Peninsula. Should be fun come around 5-6pm tonight over the bay.

Expect 5-10mm over the northern suburbs tomorrow morning.

Karl Lijnders wrote:Another 6.6mm here in as many minutes. Rainfall as heavy as Thursdays storm!!!

Looks like I am sitting on 13mm for the day here which is insane!! What a way to end spring!!!

Seems to intensify for you and weaken as it heads towards Lilydale!!!

Johnno wrote:Im looking towards the bay (My south) at the moment Andrew and all I can see is blue skies

Yeah, the showers are developing over land mainly on the ranges, and plenty in my area, the problem for me atm is a very localised one where in any SW stream, even S/SW showers tend to die where I am but keep going strong west and east of here. It must have something to do with the local aspect here as there is quite complex terrain with valleys, hills and ridges in close proximity. Can't explain exactly how it works though.

I'm hoping to get some persistent showers tonight once the flow goes SE but by then, without daytime heating, they won't be intense, more just wet drizzly type showers. Could still pick up a few more mm though which would be nice .