Victoria: Springs fronts/lows September 1st-7th 2009

Lovely pictures everyone.

Another fairly unstable day today with showers and isolated thunder developing. The warmer it gets the better our chances. It does look more likely about the coast and ranges.

Some pockets of heavy rain were reported to me through Bayswater yesterday with strong winds.

Looking at the latest EC and US - it puts us in a fairly showery SSW flow near a low early next week. Could see a few mm ~20mm in E Central and heavier falls further east . One to watch.

Does look pretty messy out there today - though with the main focus for weather on the trough which moves across southern Vic to be near Melbourne early afternoon.

Next weeks is now looking very positive for southern Vic through likely to favour places with a good westerly aspect (like the Otways, Yarra Ranges etc).

Fairly good cloud signatures presently with AccAs above my head and a bit of cj about the ranges to the north and east and some glaciation of a cell due north. All courtesy of me on the roof at work.

Karl, I wish I could share your same hopes on today. IMO temps will struggle to climb with existing cloud cover, unlike yesterday where we starting in clear skies. Having said that, it should be a damp afternoon.

As for early next week, models were earlier spitting out a low off the coast of NSW, near Eden. Maybe the models are placing the "event" closer to the Gippsland coast.

Surprised confidence is low. Radar showing and increase in showers. All going to plan so far. Rapid increase of cloud due to cold air. Needs to rise 2C then we are there.

Thickening up on the western border....Mt.Gambier radar once again having a hissy fit..... i kid you not, our radar system is so far behind the 8-ball atm, it's a joke. Enough of rant. Anyway, some cu becoming more solid overhead which is a good sign. Just need enough breaks in clouds to let things heat up a little and the chances will improve.

Vis sat is looking good.

http://realtime2.bsch.au.com/vis_sat2.html?region=vic&loop=no&images=&allday=&start=&stop=

Poured here with small hail for five minutes. Very thundery looking sky here.

Greg, amazing pics as always. I love how you incorporate other things in there to give them scale and perspective and just everything. haha

Got a couple of CU's going up atm here. Dont think it will be quite as big as it was yesterday, and if anything does form, it will once again, be mainly eastern regions.

Sat pic does look rather nice now. I'm stuck in the factory for a while today, only poking my head when i can slip away. So if anything does go bang near Bendigo, someone let me know?

Karl Lijnders wrote:Poured here with small hail for five minutes. Very thundery looking sky here.

Ok mate, you are onto something. Main query as you mentioned is the temp, but it is looking more likely.

Looking good outside...what a great start to Spring. Have to admit, Aug was great as well. Wonder what October and Nov will be like? Dec monsoonal this year?? maybe!!!

Very very Black to the south of me

Hailing here

My Turn. 60 seconds of rain followed by 30 seconds of Hail.

Sun out now.

rikjpool wrote:Greg, amazing pics as always. I love how you incorporate other things in there to give them scale and perspective and just everything. haha

Thanks Rikki, it's been a big push of mine to create context in my weather images. Makes it more accessible to the non- weather public.

Cu to the east is really starting to crisp up. Seems to be an area of convergence in the eastern burbs, winds from nnw meeting northerlies coming over the ranges giving some lift.

Still going and it's just started absolutely BELTING down now! Lots of hail a bit bigger than pea sized but not a huge amount of rain in it.


ROFL, and now it's just stopped.

Looks like having the risk of hail today in my offical 7 day forecast for Melbourne yesterday and on and off during the past week is starting to pay off in a few areas. Any reports of thunder guys?

Not a sound here, Johnno.

pokes head out roller door... Nice big black base and pouring on the LHS, looking southwest.... Nothing here yet...

Rain started here in Boronia.

nice and sunny and windy, hardly any clouds at all today. Where do I live again?

The next line looks better, looks like the front

Quickfire 4mm. No hail, thunder or wind. Looking forward to the front , should hit at a good time.

So far that line is bringing alot of winds blaring down from the North, and about 15 drops a min... good stuff.

Just under my third heavy shower for today. This one has very small hail and is packing a punch. Hail bouncing off the tin roof and hitting the windows.