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Victoria: Statewide Rain/Storm Event September 16th-19th 2009

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Post  Power Storm Thu Sep 17, 2009 7:14 am

It is still raining here, started early evening last night. I am going to check the gauge shortly.

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Post  Malleefarmer Thu Sep 17, 2009 7:44 am

7.5mm now and things are starting to break into heavier showers inbetween light rain. Would be wrapt to get to 10mm out of this considering how it has died off on it's move from SA. Clouds coming more from the WNW now and by the looks of the sat loop we may not be too far from the back edge now. Is there much of a chance of storms on the back edge of this?

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Post  Power Storm Thu Sep 17, 2009 7:49 am

There could be some thunderstorms along the back edge this afternoon mate, particularly Mallee and Northern Country regions IMO.

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Post  Karl Lijnders Thu Sep 17, 2009 8:03 am

Slight chance of storms more likely in the NE.

Light rain here.
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Post  Australis(Shell3155) Thu Sep 17, 2009 8:10 am

Warracknabeal says rain total of 20 and Ararat 21 still sitting on ~0mm here. 6 spots on an east facing windows, new I should have hung that washing out.
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Post  hillybilly Thu Sep 17, 2009 8:38 am

Some really good falls now clocking up but the radar is not looking good for Melbourne. Rain north/south/east/west Rolling Eyes Gotta wonder what is going on with our weather...

On the flip side I suspect the best rain is actually back in the radar hole between Melbourne/Mt Gambier - eg Mortlake has had near 10mm in the last 2 hours.

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Post  Karl Lijnders Thu Sep 17, 2009 8:52 am

Not surprised by the rain failing Melbourne. Breaking up on entry literally from the west.

Rain shadows - doesn't matter what direction anymore.

Might end up with more Saturday!!!

Excellent falls inland though!!! Fantastic Smile
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Post  Johnno Thu Sep 17, 2009 8:59 am

Yeah slight chance Adon but only 15% chance I'll give it for storms your way.

EC heavy rain for Melbourne by Mid morning looks to be failing once again. Still think we will get very little unless the wind shifts South Westerly or southerly until then we will get buckleys in Melbourne.

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Post  Karl Lijnders Thu Sep 17, 2009 9:14 am

Actually I am more inclined to think the best rain will be around 3pm. The band developing off the western ranges currently looks good. DJ mentioned this earlier.

US has 25mm for us today.
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Post  hillybilly Thu Sep 17, 2009 10:00 am

Up to 5mm in Ferny Creek now so is adding up nicely - steady moderate rain. The western/northern burbs are really struggling at the moment Rolling Eyes

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Post  firestorm Thu Sep 17, 2009 10:12 am

Well this is great the rain is just getting heavier very heavy for the last 30min not good for working in No im drenched just on lunch. 8mm upto 9am and 4.2mm till now im thinking 20mm from this one for me Very Happy. Also the wind has swung to the SSW for the last hour so hopefully this will change things for the Melbourne area.

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Post  Power Storm Thu Sep 17, 2009 10:13 am

20mm in the gauge to 9am. I just drove to and back from Colac and it has not stopped raining yet, though looks like things will ease and clear over the next couple of hours here. Heavy rain at spots too, lots of local flooding on the roads.

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Post  firestorm Thu Sep 17, 2009 10:25 am

really driving down hard atm time to go get wet again Suspect

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Post  Bobman Thu Sep 17, 2009 10:45 am

Had just over 2mm here in Moorabbin so far. Nice to see the Thomson will get a decent drink for once.

Next Monday should hopefully be much better in terms of mm output.

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Post  Greg Sorenson Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:05 am

Looks like there is a possibility for convection tues next week with some models suggesting instability feeding in from SA.
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Post  Karl Lijnders Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:06 am

Just on 4mm with some work to do. May struggle for 10mm in the hills which is a shame.
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Post  hillybilly Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:21 am

7mm in Ferny Creek... which is OK provided the second part of this event delivers.

Hate to say it but I reckon the weaken/re-strengthen scenario may be playing out (with Melbourne/central areas in the middle). The band is really building in the NE/east - the western part should also thicken up this arvo, but is not looking that great ATM. Case of watching the radar and crossing fingers.

Can't believe parts of Melbourne still haven't got off 0mm.

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Post  Sniper Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:21 am

My mum used to tell me, if you have nothing nice to say, don't say it at all.

That's my thoughts on this event.

Overcast in town, boring.....

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Post  Karl Lijnders Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:25 am

Looks like the secondary rain is splitting a melbourne looks more than likely to miss it.

Ah well it's falling inland so that's a concession.

Don't feel so upset considering only expected 1-5mm across Melbourne. Not suprised given the sky screamed little this morning.
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Post  Johnno Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:26 am

0.6mm and expect very little more.Well done Karl for picking this did well I wasn't a fan of this system either Models are useless human common sense wins out over models anyday.

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Post  Australis(Shell3155) Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:45 am

3.5mm so far here.
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Post  Karl Lijnders Thu Sep 17, 2009 11:51 am

Well a nice saving period of rain here - pouring last ten or so minutes with it closing out nicely. Literally as I posted last it poured!!!

Gutters flowing heavily here...
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Post  firestorm Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:15 pm

well rain has stopped now just when i finish work dripping wet Evil or Very Mad looks mostly over for me now maybe some left over showers possible. Another 8.8mm til now and 8.2mm till 9am so 17mm total would like to get 20mm but looks just out of reach. Good to see that you guys getting some rain in the Melbourne metro area now. Smile

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Post  Karl Lijnders Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:16 pm

Well it is teaming down here now and no letting up. An amazing turn around. I will be quiet now about how bad this system is because it is now graduating to a reasonable stand. 10-20mm looks OK now for the hills and EC was right for one side of town re: rainfall.

SW winds developing in Geelong with the main band back along the Otway coast. One to watch there for further rainfall.

7.6mm here.
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Post  Luken Thu Sep 17, 2009 12:18 pm

Well just got home to 6.5mm in the gauge. Looks like it has set in for a while. Should see 10mm by the end of it which is a good drop.
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