Victoria: Wintry fronts with Showers. October 12th to 17th 2009

brief strong winds and heavy shower here. not much in it. Rada r looks promising.

Not suprised the band weakened as it came across. Looking fine tonight now.

Rain and thunder developing tomorrow.

The wind has taken over...I think there is a very remote chance of a fast moving line of storms hitting overnight.

Yeah Karl, fairly clear slot coming through central areas now. May get some showers before dawn.
Could be a rather unstable afternoon tomorrow.

Hi Wes - your quite right. Tomorrow afternoon could be stormy dependent upon how much rain develops.

Fairly large band of showers coming in from the west. Should see about 2-5mm in it. Quite widespread showers to follow with thunderstorms developing.

I think all in all a wettish day.

We just put up a balloon and sonde here at Broadmeadows and the sounding actually looks pretty decent! Unfortunately there's a couple of dry air inversions at around 850hpa and 650hpa which kinda explains the virga show that we're getting at the moment!

On the upside tho' i'm guessing that this should start to change pretty rapidly as the day goes on.. There is certainly some decent instability up to about 500 however so once these dry layers moisten up it could be quite an active day!

Bit of heating will certainly help convection.

Thanks for the early sounding. Possible hail looks good later too.

Wow just look at that band split in 2 north and south of the metro area. The great Melbourne forcefield is alive and well this morning.

Melbourne Skywalker wrote:Wow just look at that band split in 2 north and south of the metro area. The great Melbourne forcefield is alive and well this morning.

Yeah it is!!! Ah well, the state is still picking up some decent rain!

Another ~2mm up here this morning. Frustrating to see rainband/storm systems dive south of us for 3 days in a row. Guess sometimes your just out of luck!

A nice wet day today and very wintery though the best falls likely in the far southwest (near the trough) and northeast. Is a very strong low moving through just south of Vic the next 24 hours passing south of Melbourne overnight into tomorrow morning. Unfortunately a lot of the weather will pass through Bass Strait, so not huge totals.

Should also see some nice convection fire up as soon as the sun starts to warm.

The best falls the last 24 hours are all through south/west Gippsland (16mm at Latrobe Valley, 14mm at Balook, 13mm at Lal Lal).

~2.6mm here this morning. Looking very wintry

Typical crap system for us. Just craploads of wind and a single shower. Hope you guys are enjoying it 'cos I just wish it would go away.

IDV65758
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Victoria Regional Office

THUNDERSTORM FORECAST

Issued at 11:33 am Tuesday, 13 October 2009,
Valid until midnight on Tuesday, 13 October 2009.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible over most of the state this afternoon. Over
southern and mountain districts thunderstorm activity is more likely. Strong to
locally gale force winds are possible across exposed and elevated areas today
[see severe weather warning] as a low pressure system passes through Bass
Strait. The risk of damaging wind gusts will be increased near shower or
thunderstorm activity. Any hail associated with shower or thunderstorm acitity
is likley to be only small. Given a severe weather warning for damaging winds is
current, a severe thunderstorm warning will not be issued unless radar evidence
indicates an increased possibility of other severe phenomena.

I know one thing Mallee, we ai'nt getting the 25mm forecast by GFS for next 48hrs around here. When the winds start going SW it's all over for nth of the ranges, apart from a nuisance shower. Got a nice 3mm of useful rain. Would be nice to get some warmth sometime soon.

Rhino.

Scattered convection developing. I like that not much is around Melbourne yet. Should fire up after 3pm.

Don't write it off yet!!!

Doesn't have the same feel as yesterday but there is possibly more instability today

Temps spiking towards 20C

Looking a lot better Karl.... We really needed a jump from those 14-15 temps that were hovering during lunchtime. Still messy looking today, no real structure or line to speak of. Like yesterday, it will be very much hit or miss, with the North Central areas looking more likely to have some activity. The notorious Kilmore area looks ideal in this set-up.

Already firing in the North East.
Brayden should be getting fired up!!

Looks more likely that Melbourne will max out at 19. DP's still horrible.
Radar beginning to look better. Will be happy to score 1 rumble

Latest LAPS and meso-LAPS have heavy showers developing from the south Mallee down through central areas including Melbourne from about 2pm onwards. Seems to be borne out by the satellite picture which has cloud developing and plenty of showers building quickly.

Next few hours could be interesting.

Been an odd day up here so far. Freezing morning with temperatures near 7C with a drizzly rain. A mild partly cloud afternoon with temperature jumping to nearly 13C in a couple of hours.

PS some really good falls also building in the lower northeast - 27mm at Chesnut and 18mm at Strathbogie. Gotta be good for more runoff up there.

0.5mm yesterday and 0.5mm from 9am.

Yeah decent band moving through...looking good.

Should get 2-5mm out of this